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Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
Thu Sep 22, 2016, 10:47 AM Sep 2016

Election Model Update 9/22/2016

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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
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Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 0.684513006655
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 285.9956
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 288.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 287

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# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
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Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 0.627906976744
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 283.764
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 284.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 270
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 3.03117822284

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