POLLS: New Quinnipiac Polls of VA, CO, GA, IA

[democrattotheend]

Iowa and Georgia not good. The other 2 ok. Colorado a little close for comfort

Note: These interviews were taken September 13-21, so they may not reflect what seems to be a bit of a rebound as much as polls that have a shorter period. This has long been my criticism of Quinnipiac polls.

New Quinnipiac polls of LVs >

CO: HC 44, DT 42, GJ 10

GA: DT 47, HC 40, GJ 9

IA: DT 44, HC 37, GJ 10

VA: HC 45, DT 39, GJ 8

[molova]

1. Quinnipiac has a pro-Trump house effect nt

[still_one]

2. I am not unhappy with those numbers. Have no idea what happened to Iowa, it used to be

a pretty reliable blue state, but they have gone full wacko, with Ernst and others

[democrattotheend]

3. It was always a swing state

Gore won it but Kerry lost it. Obama won it comfortably but he won a lot of states comfortably that are usually swing states.

[geek tragedy]

5. Iowa's not even close this election cycle, Trump's going to blow Clinton out there.

It's less competitive than Georgia, Arizona and even Texas are.

They like their white nationalism there.

[SCliberal91294]

6. We need to get out of Iowa

And put more resouces in WI, NC, and FL.

[geek tragedy]

7. I don't know that we need to, but I would agree if resource scarcity is an issue

then Iowa would be one place to sacrifice in order to pursue more fruitful avenues.

[SCliberal91294]

12. Iowa

6 ev's isn't worth it. Focus on keeping PA, VA, CO, and NH strong. Get some help in NV, NC and FL.

[StevieM]

38. The problem is that we have already gotten out of there. Hillary hasn't done any campaigning

in Iowa. That needs to change. We should not be conceding that state.

[still_one]

39. how do you know we aren't?

[Drahthaardogs]

40. There are no commercials here one way or another - at least very few.

Neither candidate seems to be campaigning hard here.

[still_one]

43. oh, I see. Maybe Hillary is waiting until after the first debate, I don't know, thanks though

[vdogg]

25. Iowa voted for a black President twice

They are by no means a lost cause, I think it's far closers than the poll would lead us to believe.

[geek tragedy]

30. I think Obama persuaded a lot of them to not vote for Romney

Trump is attracting a lot of downscale whites who didn't have much affection for a preppy like Romney.

The quality polls nailed Iowa in 2012--Obama showed a 3-7 point lead there consistently according to PPP, Des Moines Register and Marist.

[still_one]

22. You have a point, but it was never as far right as it has seems to have evolved

[Midwestern Democrat]

44. It used to be our easiest swing state - we won it 6 out of 7 times between 1988 and 2012

The farm crisis is what swung the state to us in the first place - I suppose that's finally faded away, but there has to be more to it than that - that should have faded long before 2016

[StevieM]

37. We are not campaigning hard there. Hillary hasn't been making appearances in Iowa and she really

needs to go there ASAP.

[geek tragedy]

4. Either the polls or both campaigns are wrong about Colorado

Polls show an extremely close race there, but no one seems to be biting.

Georgia will be a purple state one day, not this year though.

Iowa is probably going to be a Republican state for a while going forward--the "white power" argument works very well in that incredibly non-diverse state, much better than conservative doctrine

[democrattotheend]

9. If any Democrat could have won Georgia, it was Obama in 2008

If he couldn't win it, I don't see how Hillary can. She probably won't get as high of a black turnout as Obama did, and most people who didn't vote for him because he's black probably also can't see a woman being commander in chief.

When the race was wider apart it might have been worth going for but not anymore. I think North Carolina might be a lost cause now too.

Re. Iowa, I am not sure you are completely right. Outside of Appalachia, whites in very white states actually seem to be less driven to vote based on appeals to racial prejudice than more diverse states. Look at Vermont, Oregon, and Maine until recently. From what I have read, Maine has changed some because of blowback over Somali refugees coming in.

Obama won Iowa by over 10 points in 2008. I don't think race will be the reason Clinton loses there if she does.

[geek tragedy]

11. demographics are shifting in Georgia and North Carolina

becoming more racially diverse, and attracting more educated people who weren't born there.

Iowa loves Trump. And Steve King.

Possible that it's misogyny/sexism there, or just a general rube mindset. Unclear but in any event it's a lost cause for this cycle. Only reason to keep people on the ground there is to avoid giving the other side a psychological victory.

Unlikely that the love for Trump there is unrelated to the pasty white nature of the electorate.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. Yesterday's Emerson poll did not show that close a race though

And until I see money go into CO in lareg blocs I'm assuming it's safe.

[Thrill]

8. Wtf is going on in Iowa

That's crazy

[sweetloukillbot]

13. When I was living there a few years ago there was a lot immigration concern

A lot of the meat-packing jobs were going to undocumented immigrants. Trump would play to that perfectly.

[Doctor Jack]

10. Remember, Quinn polls usually lean +4 or so for GOP

Proabably a 6 point lead in colorado and 10 in virgina. The other two are small trump leads.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Their CO demographics are off

Follow

Josh KraushaarVerified account
?@HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar Retweeted Nick Riccardi
Q has always been too friendly to the GOP in Colorado bc it has undersampled Hispanics

_______________________________________________

9% in this poll

14% in 012 exits.

[geek tragedy]

16. that makes sense. So likely more of a 5-6 point lead. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I hate to unskew polls because it represents motivated thinking which can lead to erroneous...

I hate to unskew polls because it represents motivated thinking which can lead to erroneous conclusions , but it's hard to ignore...

Their samples seem to be more white and more GOP than not.

[geek tragedy]

27. determining who will actually turn out to vote is a lot more art than science nt

[Charles Bukowski]

23. 9% is laughably low.

It will be closer to 17% for this election. It was projected to increase even without the Orange Clown in the race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. To my fellow Golden State resident please see Post 18

Representing the San Fernando Valley.

[Charles Bukowski]

32. I saw that and I agree with you totally.

I hate unskewing polls too, but sometimes you just have too.

Latinos were undersampled in 2012 as well, which probably explained why Obama overperformed in virtually all the states he carried, including Colorado.

Final RCP average (Colorado): Obama +1.5%
Actual result: Obama +5.4

Representing Pasadena.

[Charles Bukowski]

17. Any h2h results?

Edit: nevermind, found it.

Colorado: Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent;
Georgia: Trump leads Clinton 50 - 44 percent;
Iowa: Trump tops Clinton 50 - 44 percent;
Virginia: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 43 percent.

Ugh @ Colorado.

[democrattotheend]

19. So Johnson actually helps Clinton in Colorado

That is not too surprising. Democrats often win Colorado at the state level in part because of a strong libertarian peeling votes mostly from the Republican.

The degree to which Johnson seems to be hurting Clinton is unusually. Usually it is the other way around.

[Iliyah]

20. Whats h2h?

Anywho, CO and NV are HRC wins.

[geek tragedy]

31. head 2 head, as opposed to 3 or 4 way nt

[Loki Liesmith]

21. If Colorado was at all competitive

There'd be money going into it.

[vdogg]

24. Georgia is to us what Pennsylvania is to Republicans

Always looks like we have a chance to pull it off in the beginning, always slips out of our fingers at the end.

[vadermike]

28. CO VA

Good polls from Q She is ahead in both

[RAFisher]

29. 538 shows Quinnipiac favors Trump by 1%

I agree with you on the long period. That is a valid criticism of Quinnipiac. Not sure what's going on in CO. Did Johnson gain more support because people thought Colorado was definitely going blue? Will Johnson's lead shrink when people see that he might spoil the race to Trump.

[Loki Liesmith]

33. Pretty clear her numbers took a hit 9/11-9/14

this covers that period, and still can't get to a tie.

Plus QPAC.

[ram2008]

34. In a close race, Colorado is going to be the state the decides the election

You can count on it.

FL, OH will go Red

VA, PA, NH lean Blue.

If it stays close Colorado is the firewall.

[democrattotheend]

35. Colorado may get called before Virginia though

Even though it closes its polls much later. Virginia always gets called very late if it is going or might go for a Democrat because Arlington takes forever to report.

[MFM008]

36. Fuck them

.....

[hauckeye]

41. I'm originally from Iowa

and have a lot of relatives still living there. Many of them seem to really hate HRC more than being for Trump. Not sure why. One of my Aunts posts a lot of pro-Trump stuff on Facebook, and the rest just seem to be anti-Hillary. I'm the odd one out as leaning Democratic.

[book_worm]

42. At this point looks like Iowa may be a pick up by Trump

hope it will swing back. Otherwise, GA was a nice thought, but Hillary doesn't need it. VA is good and CO is OK (other polls a week ago showed Trump up, so it may be swinging back).