Trump is going to lose this debate. Here's why:

[piechartking]

Temperament, stupid statements (these are actually one issue: Temperament)

He's got two choices - go hot or go cold

Hot: We all know how this goes. It's fodder for everyone, comes off like an asshole.

- In my personal life, I have a bad temper. I've gone into situations knowing that it's not advantageous for me to lose it, but in the moment - I fucking do it anyway, because it just FEELS good to unload on someone. BINGO for Trump, except much amplified (I'm not a 70-year-old billionaire (he says) who was born wealthy and done things my own way my whole life). Highly likely he gets angry and does something dumb.

- Much more difficult would be a situation where my opponent came armed with my own words against me (nothing a person like him likes less than having to take responsibility), so if she can make him feel stupid for something he said and try to get him to take responsibility, he'll lose it.

Cold: Maybe he tries to keep his cool. Here's what works against him:

- Time:

He's never been toe-to-toe 90 mins. I don't think I could do it and hold it together under relentless needling attacks. (And let me tell you, with a guy like him, knowing the attacks are coming is actually much worse and makes him resentful when it finally does come).

- His lack of preparation:

He has not gamed this out. Every jab will feel like an uppercut because he hasn't prepared at all. If you take it with the point above (He will resent being attacked and knowing it's coming), it's the worst of both worlds: he knows it's coming and resents it, but hasn't prepared at all for the attack!

- Lack of knowledge:

90 minutes is a long time to not know what the hell you're talking about. If he tones down on spectacle, it will mean 90 minutes of him talking like a dimwit and looking uncomfortable. Sad!

[C_U_L8R]

1. Ego

He's gonna trip over it

[BSdetect]

2. He can talk with contradictions for all his time at the debate

And they will discount that if he looks Presidential for 2 minutes.

[piechartking]

4. I don't think so.

Not for 90 minutes. Look how crazy his 30 minutes were on the Commander in Chief forum.

[Madam45for2923]

3. I think his "secret weapon" is some "bombs" he thinks he will throw

Good thing HRC is calm cool collected when people are out to get her!

You know she's got this!

[Charles Bukowski]

5. He'll try to attack her for NAFTA.

But HRC can rebut that in her sleep.

Bringing up Iraq will only invite her to point out that he was in favor of going in. He'll of course deny it, but that will be a lie.

I expect a whole lotta word salad replies from Trump, all which will make him look like the idiot we've all come to know and mock.

Picture Trump trying to explain his tax plan in detail. Or his healthcare plan. Or his plan to combat ISIS. I'm laughing just thinking about it.

[piechartking]

8. I'm laughing picturing you laughing at Trump the buffoon

[radius777]

33. Both NAFTA and Iraq were GOP policies

that the Clintons/Dems took a centrist position on in the spirit of bipartisanship, and it was the GOP in both cases which dishonored that spirit, leading to the failure of those policies.

[unblock]

6. The debate its is really a foregone conclusion

Both candidates have well-established personalities and behaviors. We know trump will lose spectacularly on facts and policy and lean heavily on lies, smears, insults, etc.

The real question is how the media will spin it. Not long ago I would have said obviously they'd cheer on his bullying ways, but since he pissed off the media with his "rickroll" birther infomercial, I'm not so sure.

[underpants]

7. smaller sense- how will he deal with a quiet crowd? Also, hot an look crazed or cold & be boring?

Tried to fit all that in the subject line.

Yes he has to go 90 minutes without being able to just rant and feed off the crowd AND without it being a prepared speech. He will have notes but because he refuses to wear glasses at speeches the font is HOOOOG meaning he will have a pile of papers that he has to sort through.

[piechartking]

10. Please please please let him shuffle his papers

and have the one piece he needs float off the podium and he has to stoop down and retrieve it like a scared-shitless 7th grader running for Class Treasurer.

[anamandujano]

25. Rude but hilarious!

[politicaljunkie41910]

14. Do you know for certain that they can have notes? I didn't think they could have notes.

Normally they just allow blank paper on the podium and a pen and the candidates usually start jotting things down on the blank paper, that they want to remember, as soon as they come out. Can you please clarify that statement you made.

[underpants]

15. I was assuming that they had notes

You are probably correct but I don't know what the specific rules are for these debates.

[PJMcK]

28. They take notes when their opponent is speaking (n/t)

[Hortensis]

9. What also work against him: His many failures and mistakes.

He would find it extremely difficult take criticism and humiliation without hitting back and probably doubling down. And there are SO many.

[louis-t]

11. There will be a lot of "believe me"s

and his usual bluster with no details. "We will win so much" blah blah blah.
I guarantee the moderators will have trouble getting him to shut up when his time is up. Guarantee. He is too important for time limits.

[lastlib]

20. I think the first words out of Hillary's mouth tomorrow night.....

should be, "He only says 'Believe me' when he's saying something that isn't true. So when he says 'Believe me', DON'T believe him!! When he says 'Trust me', DON'T trust him!" Get him to thinking early on that he can't use those fillers without provoking viewers to NOT believe him; if he's having to think about that, he's not thinking so much on the issues at hand, and he'll make mistakes. And she'll walk all over him.

I also think that right about now would be a good time to unleash an Elizabeth Warren Twitter-storm on him! Have her attacking him, needling him, getting under his orange. Goad him into putting out something indefensible that he'll have to defend tomorrow night. He will totally lose his cool--Game OVER.

[radius777]

34. that's why Kaine's 'believe me' convention speech was so good imo

and Team H should've kept hammering that theme, that Trump is a con-artist selling fake policies that are mostly unconstitutional and could never pass congress.

[uponit7771]

12. Even if tRump outright lies 100% of the time as long as he doesn't drool or pee on himself he won...

... to the M$M

[gelsdorf]

13. My opinion, for what it's worth

is that he will get flustered, call HRC a name (prolly the c word), then storm off of the stage, there by controlling the media for at least another week.
I hope I'm wrong

[book_worm]

17. If he did everything you say he would be out of the race

so I actually wish he would do it.

[book_worm]

16. I say we watch the debate and see who the media proclaims the winner

and that is what will influence most people.

[Thinkingabout]

18. I have confidence in Hillary's ability, she has the knowledge a potential president needs

To show, not so sure about Trump. He may think he can rattle her but after eleven hours of testimony she was not rattled, it isn't going to happen being on stage with Trump. Trump's attempts to rattle her will appear very immature and childish. She can look at him, roll her eyes at dumb Reponses and still be presidential.

[Ka hrnt]

19. Careful....remember Bush vs Gore

Not saying I disagree with the OP, but remember the lessons of Bush vs. Gore. Gore was expected to stomp him (and did) but expectations for Bush were so low that when he didn't simply drool on himself, he came out ahead in many people's eyes. Low expectations = easy "success".

[ucrdem]

21. I imagine he'll lose on policy, but how much will focus on policy?

His ticket out of every tight spot will be to hit her on wedge issues and personal "questions" made burning by 24/7 news saturation going back to 1992, namely Whitewater, Vince Foster, Monica, IWR, Benghazi, servergate, etc. You name it, he'll flog it to avoid having to think about anything serious. And you know he's been saving his best tweets for the big show where the press will be panting for his latest dumbassery which they'll recite eight times an hour for the next week. He won't be so easily dispatched. But I still have confidence that tomorrow night will be a game-changer, the first of several.

[tclambert]

22. I agree about the time factor. I don't think he's ever worked at anything for 90 minutes straight.

[onecaliberal]

30. The gentleman who wrote art of the deal says he can't focus for long periods of time

[Kablooie]

23. It will depend more on Hillary how well or badly he does.

She has to show why America should want her for president, not why we should reject Trump.
Most of her campaign up to now seems to focus on Trump's character.
She really needs go beyond that and focus on what she can do, not what Trump can't do.
Her campaign has to be about her, not about Trump.

[anamandujano]

26. Agree, she needs to make this about her as much as she can

while dismissing his idiocy and lies as succinctly as she can, mostly allowing Trump to take himself down.

[tandem5]

24. Debate happens then the media declares that Trump *clicks off the TV* I win.

[stillers4ever]

27. It'll be the best show in town, that's for sure!

I think it's impossible to really predict how this will go...the good news is that we don't have to wait long to find out!

Certainly HRC will be prepared and polished...she always is. She will also probably also have some good zingers to throw at Trump. However, she carries a lot of Clinton baggage. And there are those nagging concerns about her health which may or may not be legit concerns.

Trump will also have a zinger or two...he will NOT be polished and probably knows about foreign policy about as well as Gary "What is Aleppo?" Johnson. His supporters love him because he is not polished and is not part of what is perceived as the political elite...they are not looking for substance, they're looking for someone they think cares about them...which of course he does not.

Personally, I'm missing Bernie and I wish it were him we were seeing up there tomorrow night.

[Laffy Kat]

29. The problem here is that you are using logic.

So far logic does not work in predicting how T-rump will come across to the voters. I am at a loss.

[greytdemocrat]

31. Too many over confident people here

Never misunderestimate Teh Donald!!!

[tblue37]

32. Ailes is preparing him the way the GOP team prepared Palin--with pre-fab one-line zingers

that can be used to respond to almost any point or situation.

Of course, Trump isn't going to spend a lot of time studying and memorizing them.

[radius777]

35. She has to intensify the contrast

of herself as an experienced professional and Trump as a fascist con-artist who represents an existential threat to the nation and the world.

She needs to present a positive vision for why voters should choose her, not just about why Trump is bad. If all the focus is on him (even if negative) it could inflate his sense of stature and importance in the eyes of the viewers.

[geek tragedy]

36. Trump is a professional reality television entertainer. Perhaps the most accomplished one.

No one watching is going to care if he doesn't have a 5-point tax plan.