POLL: Economist/YouGov National

[democrattotheend]

New nat'l poll of registered voters:

2-WAY Clinton 48 Trump 44
4-WAY Clinton 44 Trump 41 Johnson 5 Stein 2

MOE +/-3.8% —Economist/YouGov

Are they still using registered voters instead of a likely voter screen? If so these #'s are not great.

Note: My original post mistakenly identified CBS, rather than The Economist, as the news organization that commissioned the poll.

[Wounded Bear]

1. You quoted the poll...

you tell me what their methodology is.

[democrattotheend]

9. I believe this poll is conducted online

Here is the poll. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nnck19st8c/trackingreport.pdf
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/yougoveconomist-poll-september-22-24-2016/

Here is the methodology:
Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in Internet panel using sample matching.
A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2014 American Community Study. Voter registration was imputed from the November 2014 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting Supplement.

Oddly, they seem to do all adults and registered voters, rather than registered and likely voters. Obama's approval rating is a lot higher among all adults than registered voters,

[vadermike]

2. still

good news for our GOTV.. which means GOTV gets more RV! i would rather have this than if it were the other way around! And im generally a worrier lol.... she;s ahead.. lets put this debate to bed tmmrw nite ... nervous as hell but we gotta do this!

[tonyt53]

3. Those numbers are actually pretty close to where they will end up. Trump will get 41-44%.

Johnson might get 4%, and Stein maybe 1%. Johnson has been showing a pretty dumb side ans Stein has been making an ass out of herself. Hillary will end up with about 47%.

[Demsrule86]

4. You always find a reason why encouraging polls are not good. nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. ROFL

[vdogg]

13. You noticed that too.

At this point it's getting laughable.

[DarthDem]

16. LOL. Every. Single. Time.

Indeed. Good spot.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. This poll is good

It was Hillary +1 in a 2 way and +2 in a 4 way the last time it was released.

[vadermike]

6. yep

yep yep

[Zynx]

7. This is about what the numbers have shown in that poll for a long time.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. No.

This poll was closer than this for several cycles. Hillary went from +1 to +4.

[vadermike]

11. Do

you guys beleive what Nate is saying that Trump could win this cause of all the undecided? It doesnt seem that way with these polls...

[pnwmom]

12. No, because his theory is based on the idea that the undecideds break away

from the incumbent, and Hillary is the incumbent.

But Hillary really is not the incumbent, even though she is supported by him. And she is the first woman ever, which will matter to millions of women.

And Trump isn't like the usual less-well-known challenger. He's every bit as well known as Hillary. So it isn't as if millions of voters will suddenly notice him and decide to vote for him.

[vadermike]

14. good point

Dump is well known.. thats for sure lol

[kurt_cagle]

15. Wait until after the debate

My prediction is that it should give Clinton a significant bounce. Print media is beginning to turn against Trump, and the first debate may actually be the first time that Clinton and Trump have been facing each other directly, rather than being filtered by the media.