POLL: North Carolina HighPoint University: Clinton +1 with leaners, +2 w/o

[democrattotheend]

Likely voters with leaners:
Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 10

Likely voters w/o leaners:
Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 8

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf

404 likely voters, landline and cell phone, conducted 9/17 - 9/22

4.9% MOE, sample weighted based on 2008 and 2012 demographics

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. When you look at all the national aggregates Clinton is up two to four...

That suggests some of the swing states will be on a knife's edge...

[Loki Liesmith]

2. want data from Colorado, Michigan

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Lots of people freaking out today...

Can you think of a more self defeating emotion?

Even if I was so scared I was fouling myself I wouldn't let my enemies know.

My buddy was in the freaking Battle of Fallujah. I asked him if he was scared. He said no because it wouldn't do any good and only increase the likelihood of getting injured or killed.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. So odd how Democrats react

R friends are always confident, never freak out at polls.

What drives this?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. That's why my political hero was Bobby Kennedy...

He had boundless empathy , boundless physical courage, and boundless moral courage.


BTW, is your model based on nat'l polls, state polls or a hybrid?

[Loki Liesmith]

7. State polls but

I use 2012 turnout numbers to estimate a national number and validate the runs based on the similarity to the current national polling.


My last number had a spread of 2.45 advantage Clinton. That looks fairly likely.

Can't run it now as work firewall prevents me from downloading polls from HuffPost. I expect today will put a dent in Clinton's numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Another poster was suggesting your model was based on national numbers only.

Nate is getting a lot of push back on his model . It is is not as if those questioning it are nobododies; Sam Wang, David Rothschild, and NassimTaleb are not nobodies.

[Loki Liesmith]

12. No I know that person, he/she has failed to understand what I'm saying from the get-go

I said that Nate Silver's model is almost entirely correlated with the national numbers. I regressed his national numbers against the moving average from huffington post and found that the national poll average explains around 60-70% of the variation in Nate's estimates of probability.

I said I could probably do almost as well as Nate just converting the national poll average into a direct probability.

but my model uses medians like Sam Wang and extrapolates missing data from trends.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. My eye test instructs me Clinton will win.

The same eye test that informed me of the winner, at this moment, in every election since 1976.

To be candid I don't precisely remember who I thought would win in 00.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. I thought Gore would lose

I was actually a Nader advocate, until I saw what might happen. I switched over to Gore. Hope I didn't do to much damage.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I can't remember. I knew Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry were going to lose at this point.

[molova]

6. Romney won NC. This is good news

Cheer up and rec.

[Loki Liesmith]

8. better than I had expected for sure

All battlegrounds tightening.

could lead to a breakout either way.

[CajunBlazer]

9. The title and text of your OP do not agree

In addition, on Nate Silver's website he has corrected this poll for known bias - went from Clinton +1 to a tie, and he has assigned it a relatively low weighting for accuracy.

[smorkingapple]

11. Polls cannot measure turnout accurately. That's the secret sauce campaigns know about.

And it's why Plouffe and Messina are very confident of a Clinton win.

[CajunBlazer]

13. We had better hope so because Trump voters are more enthusistic than Clinton's

[geek tragedy]

16. weighting the sample to 2008/2012 demographics seems like a very arbitrary decision

1) that's not necessarily a warranted assumption;

2) exit polls aren't necessarily correct in terms of demographics--they can easily undercount white voters, or nonwhite voters

[Dawson Leery]

18. kick

[triron]

19. any

new early/absentee voting info?

[triron]

20. knr

[triron]

21. anyone

have updates on ballot requests by party?