2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum***Florida Chamber of Commerce Poll: HRC: 43% Trump: 41% (Senate race close)***
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Presidential Election:
While Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 42 percent in the head-to-head General Election matchup, the Florida Chamber Political Institute statewide poll shows Clintons lead shrinks when third party candidates are added to the mix. Clinton leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 8 percent of the vote.
Presidential Ticket:
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 43%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 41%
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 8%
Someone Else 2%
Undecided 5%
Refused 1%
South Florida Problem:
Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 20 points in each media market.
In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump 56 percent to 25 percent in Miami, while in a three-way race including Gary Johnson, Clinton leads 56 percent to 31 percent for Trump and 3 percent for Gary Johnson.
In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump 53 percent to 32 percent in West Palm Beach, while in a three-way race including Gary Johnson, Clinton leads 52 percent to 34 percent for Trump and 5 percent for Johnson.
Demographics:
Hillary Clinton is helped with her commanding lead among Hispanic voters.
In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 53 percent to 30 percent.
In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 49 percent to 30 percent for Trump and 12 percent for Johnson.
Hilary Clinton has an impressive lead among African American voters.
In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among African American voters 89 percent to 4 percent.
In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Clinton leads among African American voters 88 percent to 4 percent for Trump and 1 percent for Johnson.
Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters and it does not move much when adding a third party
In a head-to-head race with Clinton, Trump leads among White voters 51 percent to 35 percent.
In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Trump leads among White voters 51 percent to 34 percent for Clinton and 8 percent for Johnson.
A gender gap still exists Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women
http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-too-close-to-call-in-florida/
U.S. Senate:
Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy are locked in a race that will be tight until Election Day.
Marco Rubio 46%
Patrick Murphy 42%
Undecided 11%
Refused 1%
Demographics:
Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll a credit to his strength among demographic groups.
Rubio leads Murphy 46 percent to 43 percent among Hispanic voters
Murphy leads Rubio 79 percent to 11 percent among African American voters
Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 35 percent among White voters
Rubio leads Murphy with men and barely trails him among women
Rubio leads Murphy 49 percent to 41 percent among men.
Murphy only leads Rubio by 2 points among women, 44 percent to 42 percent.
Rubios lead among votes from other parties mirrors his lead in the general election (4 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 42 percent to 38 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)Republican, so even this close result is outstanding for Hillary!