The 538 model dropped 8 points this morning and has regained 4 points this afternoon

[Godhumor]

This is one of the noisiest predictive models I've ever seen and is moving substantial amounts on every single poll that comes out.

Just noisy as all hell.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Dawson Leery]

1. Sam Wang has more credibility that Nate does.

[AngryAmish]

4. And a cooler name.

[vdogg]

2. 538 is like the damn stock market lately.

Voter preferences shifting hour by hour.

[Joe941]

3. I'd suggest 538 polls be adjusted +3 for clinton

[Cosmocat]

5. It isn't good right now

just isn't ...

The problem is

1) That there is NOTHING that can help Hillary, the right wing and media have successfully framed her. Nothing can be done to positively move her minus Trump dropping.

2) The media and country are giving Trump a complete pass on the two primary issues that would have destroyed any other candidate - his ties to Russia and his use of his foundation as a political slush fund.

3) Conway has effectively muzzled the moron and kept him from pouring gas over himself and lighting it for several weeks now.

The only thing that can save this trend is 3 breaking.

[unblock]

7. Only 2 issues against trump?

Health issues? (Why else refuse to release medical history)?

Tax issues? (Why else refuse to release taxes)?

Can't confirm net worth?

Won't disclose debts?

Secrecy (all of the above)?

Pathological liar?

Thousands of lawsuits?

Accusations of fraud?

Accusations of rape?

Accusations of marital infidelity?

Idiotic, unworkable policy proposals?

[Cosmocat]

13. Two primary issues

Let me clear - yes, the laundry list you note and others you don't note, would likely have killed any other candidate.

When I say the two "primary" issues I talking the two issues that are really tangible, most clear and most politically damaging.

Yes, not releasing taxes would have killed any other candidate, R or D. But, the ties to Russia and what he did with his foundation, which is clearly prosecutable, those are bullet to the back of the neck political wounds.

[zenabby]

8. Most respectfully,

I call BS on this. I have more trust in people. There are a number of people, who watch, don't say much, don't feel the need to proclaim their allegiance who will quietly go to polls.I predict a landslide.

[Cosmocat]

12. oh man

I desperately want for you to be right, but I say with absolutely confidence that minus Trump doing some A NUMBER of truly abhorrent things in the next 6 weeks, IF Hillary wins it will NOT be a landslide.

What I have learned about politics in my 50 years is that stupid and angry wins over reasoned thought 9 out of 10 times.

This election is 100 percent about stupid and angry, and we are will avoid Trump only if we are dog lucky at this point.

[unblock]

6. It's designed to get whipsawed.

Which would seem to mean it's not a very robust model.

[Aabritton]

9. Ground Game more Important than Polls

Were not all the polls before the California primaries saying Bernie and Hillary were "neck and neck"?

[phallon]

10. Nate is trolling for clicks

Tough market

[Blue_Adept]

11. There are so many polling outfits these days that are included

that the whole thing has lost its value on a day to day and is weakening when it comes to looking at long term trends because of it.

[Doctor Jack]

14. 538 is giving me whiplash today

Im no statistician but it seems his model is a bit too...loose, for lack of a better term. Like one little nudge will send it flying in one direction or another.