And now even Nate Cohn, Silver's replacement at the NYT, is gently reproaching 538

[Godhumor]

Clinton+5 in SurveyMonkey.
Race is close, but preponderance of polling still has Clinton ahead. https://t.co/mg0ypC8jH3
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/780484719741919233

And before you ask how I know this is in response to Silver, it is because universally other analysts are responding to both Nate's model's volatility and his morning "Panic, Democrats!" postings.

Even Nate Silver has walked back slightly saying the race is"dead-ish heat-ish" after the afternoon polling came out.

[BootinUp]

1. Silver don't wanna stick his neck out too far for some reason. nt

[Johnny2X2X]

2. He has a model

I think he has acknowledged he has some problems in his model that this year's cycle is exposing. But you still have to go with your model, you can't change it on the fly or you'll be accused of bias. His model appears to be off from most other models. I wouldn't expect him to go against his own model.

[gto]

3. Can someone tell me why Nate is so big here? Sam Wang outperforms Nate in accuracy

Yet Sam Wang isn't talked about nearly as much as Nate.

[artyteacher]

4. is sam wang the princeton guy? eom

[asiliveandbreathe]

6. I have been posting Sam for weeks...

As of September 26, 12:04PM EDT:
Snapshot (149 state polls): Clinton 292, Trump 246 EV    Meta-margin: Clinton +1.5%
RSS

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 69%, Bayesian 79%

Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51, Meta-margin: R +0.7%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 55%

[riversedge]

5. and Hillary gained 2pts with younger voters....

slow but sure and steady.




www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-clinton-leads-trump-among-likely-voters-ahead-first-debate-n654531

............... Younger voters tend to support Democratic candidates, and they were an important group to President Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012. Clinton had some trouble securing the support of millennials throughout the Democratic primaries. Third-party candidates Johnson and Stein have done well with young voters and many Democrats fear that millennials might support third-party candidates or not vote at all.




...............In the four-way general election match-up, 49 percent of those under age 30 support Clinton, and 26 percent support Trump; 16 percent of 18-29 year old likely voters support Johnson, and 7 percent support Stein. Millennial voters support the third-party candidates more than older voters—only 5 percent of those 65 and over support Johnson and only 1 percent support Stein.
Sep 26 2016, 3:00 pm ET






Trump's support among young voters remains consistent from last week. Likely voters under 30, however, have shifted support from Johnson to Clinton. Last week, 18 percent of likely voters under 30 supported Johnson. This week, 16 percent said they support him.

Clinton, on the other hand, went from 47 percent support among likely voters 18-29 years old to 49 percent support. Support among that group for Stein went from 8 percent last week to 7 percent this week.

[Loki Liesmith]

7. Today broke 538

I was laughing to myself watching the numbers change...

[Princess Turandot]

8. 538 is owned by ESPN, which in turn is owned by Disney...

Although it's been somewhat more stable in recent months, ESPN has been having financial issues for some time now. It lost 3 million subscribers (out of an beginning number of 95 million) last year alone, and its woes pop up in most current investment analyses of Disney.

Unlike his days at the NYT, his election prognostication isn't really a core function for either the parent or the grandparent company. My guess is that he needs the page views, and agitating nervous Dems helps greatly in that regard. (In the last months of the primaries, he was still writing articles which implied that Sanders still had a more than slim chance to overtake Clinton in the normal course of remaining primaries, regardless of the votes in hand and the running-out of the clock.)

I like Dr Sam Wang, at PEC. Election modeling is an intellectual exercise for him, and while he certainly wants to be as accurate as possible and undoubtedly likes the interest in his work, it's not his day job.