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Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:24 AM

Betting markets react: Hillary 68.3% (+5.2) Trump 30.5% (-3.8%)


https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html

This morning (after some bad polls were released, and 538's shitty projections) she was down around 60% and he was up around 36%.

The upward movement today is mainly within the past 2 hours, which is the imo is the most objective metric of who won the debate. the fact that it moved so sharply (when on a typical day it barely moves) says that she won 'bigly' and he was a disaster. many people are saying

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Reply Betting markets react: Hillary 68.3% (+5.2) Trump 30.5% (-3.8%) (Original post)
radius777 Sep 2016 OP
yuiyoshida Sep 2016 #1
triron Sep 2016 #2
radius777 Sep 2016 #3
triron Sep 2016 #4

Response to radius777 (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:27 AM

1. I bet his own Casinos would

Bet against him.

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Response to radius777 (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:38 AM

2. Sam Wang

has her at 87%!

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Response to triron (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 12:54 AM

3. that's a polling model, not betting markets

wang's model hasn't changed in awhile, iirc, because its a model based upon polling and other factors, like any other, like nate's etc.

betting markets are the only metric that moves by the minute, because it is based upon people placing bets/wages in real time:

State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:40AM EDT on Sep 27, 2016
State betting is from PredictIt. Betfair will be included when it has a liquid market for states
Candidates' chances in the Presidency odds column are from Betfair (over $50 million bet)


betting markets are also the most objective, and most accurate, imo, than any polling model.

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Response to radius777 (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 01:05 AM

4. HRC bayesian

probability went from 79 this morning to 87 tonite. I know it's not a betting market but I'll take it.

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