2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTrump tanked the debate on purpose
Last edited Wed Sep 28, 2016, 10:13 AM - Edit history (2)
So that he can get the pundits to say how much he improved in the second debate.
It's all part of the game.
Edit to add:
Thanks for all the reasoned and thoughtful responses.
I am thinking that my initial assertion is probably not accurate.
He most likely did not deliberately tank the debate, but his team will no doubt attempt to spin a narrative around how much he "improved" in the second one and the MSM will be very eager to run with that.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)I predict it will be all about how much better Trump does.
Orangepeel
(13,933 posts)Trump did not *purposely* look like an incoherent fool.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Knowing that he would then have a huge amount of "room for improvement" for the next two.
Or his people could've "let Trump be Trump" for the first one and will now put the screws on him so that they can tout how much he has improved.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,988 posts)And stamina? Will his tranquilizer wear off after 20 minutes like the first debate?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But it is possible for him to appear less awful the second time than the first time. And to get in a memorable one liner (written for him by someone else) that the press could run with.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)No thanks. He is a fucking ignorant moron who got soundly trounced by the most qualified and prepared candidate he could face in the world today. He didn't tank anything except maybe a few "coke" and vodkas.
His handlers are stupid as shit, he is stupid as shit, and now the whole world knows it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Fuck Trump and his deplorables.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Obviously, on DU we have a different perspective on things than the Chuck Todds and Joe Scarboroughs of the world.
I am trying to make an educated guess about how the pundits will spin what happens at the next debate after it occurs.
No, you are pushing a conspiracy not making any educated guesses. The scholars all saw an idiot getting his ass handed to him. You see a guy pretending to be an idiot and think his handlers are playing eleven dimension chess.
You should just stop.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I am making an educated guess about strategy. It seems, in fact, like strategy 101.
I don't think Trump is pretending to be an idiot and I don't think his handlers are playing chess.
I think Trump didn't prep very hard for the debate and I think his handlers decided to "let Trump be Trump" knowing that they could then have room to show how much he "improved" the next time around.
It seems pretty straightforward and follows with how they have dealt with the media up to this point, and the media clearly wants it to be close.
How do you explain the fact that HRC isn't winning by 10+ points in every state?
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)You are making something up and trying to push that narrative. A big ol conspiracy to win the next debate. Because Trump and his deplorables are just cool like that.
This is nothing but FUD.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I am genuinely curious to know what your thoughts are on that.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Now you have your proof.
But instead you seem to want us to believe it's eleventy billion dimensions chess by Team PuTrump.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I just think Trump's team knows how to take advantage of that sexism and cognitive dissonance.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)It takes not being a complete moron. Conway is not a complete moron.
emulatorloo
(44,109 posts)more likely the brains behind this operations. And they don't seem like they know stategery from a hole in the ground.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)How is HRC not beating him in every state by 10+ points?
He is a historically awful candidate who says preposterous and hateful things every day.
His campaign is run by idiots. He can't control himself on Twitter. He knows nothing about the issues.
Why is it as close as it is?
emulatorloo
(44,109 posts)That's just the way modern Presidential elections are.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)This one has Donald Trump.
MADem
(135,425 posts)POTUS is not the prize they give out for "Most Improved" and only the rightwing sites are thrashing this narrative. It's a pathetic attempt to spin gold out of manure--and it's not working this time, either.
A more plausible (but equally false) narrative is that Trump blew the debate because he doesn't want the job--that his screw-ups were purposeful, when they weren't.
Trump lost that debate because he is an ignorant blowhard who cannot control his emotions. He's easily goaded, he's intemperate, and he is a stupid, small (fingered) man who does not do his homework. Thing is, you can't copy off your classmates during a debate (too much, anyway).
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It sure seemed that way throughout the campaign.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)But he might have one good line and that might be enough for the MSM that wants a close horse race.
Trump did about a well as he could do in that debate. He didn't tank. He was himself. He's not a smart or disciplined guy. He has no idea how anyone outside his base thinks, and he doesn't even know much about how his base thinks except for a couple hot button issues.
Even if they were able to transplant information into his head he isn't a flexible enough thinker to use that information in a back and forth that can follow an unpredicable path.
Plus, he's gotten as far as he has in large part because some people like his shoot from the hip manner. He will never give that up because it's the lifeblood of his campaign.
So, although I am still uncomfortable about how this election will turn out, I have no worry that Trump is suddenly going to turn in an even somewhat reasonable debate performance. It ain't in him.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Mondale thoroughly destroyed him in the first debate and everyone knew it. Every story in the press reflected that fact and Reagan dropped in the polls and people started to think that he might lose.
Mondale also destroyed Reagan in the second debate, but Reagan had one good quip about Mondale's age.
This was all anyone talked about - disregarding the actual content of what they debated, and talking about what a "winning line" that one sentence was.
That is the kind of thing that even Trump is capable of doing (having one good line - written for him by someone else).
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Rincewind
(1,202 posts)and act like an idiot, but don't be fooled, he really is an idiot."
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Conway, in particular, has been effective.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)They are all fucking deplorable idiots. Why are you pushing this narrative here? Judging by all the replies and recs on this thread, I'd say no one is buying what you are selling. I'd be a little embarrassed if I were you.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Obviously, we on DU find them to be deplorable - but if the entire country felt that way then Trump would not have tens of millions of people saying that they will vote for him.
I am not pushing any narrative. I am trying to predict what will happen in the MSM with respect to their coverage moving forward. It is fascinating to watch the way they spin things and how the reality on the shows does not comport sometimes with what we all see with our eyes.
It's fine if people don't agree, and I could be wrong and Trump could have another debate that is universally viewed as awful and leads to him dropping precipitously in the polls. That would be wonderful.
Based on what I have seen thus far in the campaign and in past presidential elections, and looking at how the media has approached this race, I think what I am predicting will, sadly, come true.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Pretty interesting.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It seems like something worth at least talking about. Aren't we all frustrated with the way the MSM covers this campaign? I know I am.
Based on how they have covered Trump to this point, I am making an educated guess about what will happen moving forward.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)That is likely to be a very one way conversation here if you haven't figured that out yet.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Campaigns have strategies. I am trying to figure out what theirs is. This is something that the HRC team is probably also doing.
There has been a pattern throughout the campaign of Trump having "a bad week" and then "making a comeback" over and over again in the MSM.
This is something that is factual and observable - regardless of how awful we all know Trump to be. This is not a universally held opinion, unfortunately.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Giving yourself far too much credit as well.
I understand that you think I am full of crap. I could be completely wrong about everything. It's just what I think based on what I have observed in terms of the way this race has played out in the media. I respect that folks will disagree, that's the point of a discussion board, isn't it?
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)But you apparently are gonna keep pushing fantasy so have at it.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)And we have a monumentally awful candidate running against of the most qualified people ever to seek the office of the presidency, and somehow the race is close.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)And apparently what you want us to believe.
Done with your little game now. Have fun.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That HRC is not destroying Trump is mystifying to me. I am trying to figure out why it is so close. I could be totally off base and there might be other reasons why it as close as it is.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)And you sure seem to be quite alone in those beliefs. You keep saying you could be wrong or off base, but you certainly seem intent on getting someone to believe you.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I have tried to help clarify my perspective on the whole thing. While I am saying I could be wrong, I do think that I am right - in the sense that Trump could be well served by showing how much he "improved" in the second debate, and the media wanting to be able to run with such a narrative.
If the second and third debate for Trump are equal to this one and he continues to drop in the polls and the election ends up being a blowout victory for HRC, I will be absolutely thrilled to have been completely wrong in my analysis.
As it stands now, I think it will be close, and that Hillary will eke out a narrow win.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Gotcha.
It's gonna be a fucking landslide. Your narrative is deplorable.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Since this is a discussion board.
We could all just post "Hillary will win in a landslide" and everyone can respond with "+1" but that would not make for an especially thought-provoking forum.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Somehow you think you are the voice of reason and educated guesses in the room. I don't think you want to know what thoughts you are provoking at this point. But I bet you can make another educated guess.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Nor any claim that Trump's team is "all that".
Hillary is one of the most qualified people ever to run for the office and, as I have said up and down this thread, she is leaps and bounds more qualified, smart, compassionate, and prepared than Trump to the point of any such comparison being laughable.
Hillary is fantastic. Trump is awful. Trump's people are deplorable.
Not sure I can say that any more clearly.
With that being said, I think the MSM wants a close race. I think they will be looking for any "improvement" from Trump in the second debate so that they can push that narrative to keep things close. I think even the dumbest, most deplorable political operative could see the value in feeding that narrative.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)You are saying that it was his and his deplorables double secret super plan to pretend to be an idiot. A conspiracy theory that he is just trying to trick or fool people into thinking he is a complete moron so he can look marginally better next debate.
No one here is ever going to buy what you are selling. You say you are trying to predict what the media will say, but you've been trying to make the argument yourself. You actually believe it.
The reality is that he got his ass kicked and smeared across the stage. The reality is Hillary showed the world what a fucking idiot he really is. DT is a fucking moron who showed his true deplorable dumbass self and will show his dumbass every single opportunity he gets. The other deplorables are not going to save him.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He is a moron. That is not an act.
But if you look at his pre-Conway rallies - he sounds like a complete buffoon who talks about his hotels and steaks.
If you look at his post-Conway rallies - he spews right-wing talking points that he appears to have not even read previously.
Something did change in how he approached those rallies. He went from mocking HRC for using a teleprompter, to using one himself. This came from his campaign team, and the "Never Trump" people on the RW side started to come around shortly thereafter.
Here is my belief:
Trump wanted to "wing it" in the debate. His people didn't push back on this because they figured that if he did a crappy job, he would be able to "show improvement" in the next one and that the MSM would go for that story.
That seems like a very basic strategy, which Conway and friends would be capable of.
It is my view that HRC will win every debate. But the MSM wants it to be close. So they will find some reason to say Trump improved. And that will keep the horse race going, which is what they want.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)90 minutes is too long for him to control himself.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Reagan gets off his famous line about Mondale's age early on and then Mondale proceeds to destroy him for the remainder of the debate, but all anyone talked about afterwards was Reagan's quip.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Reagan was an accomplished performer with a sense of timing, delivery, and more importantly the self discipline to utilize those senses.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)His timing and delivery were awful.
Watch his closing remarks - the last five minutes - again.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)The thing is... Trump's debate performance was slightly - slightly - toned down from his performances in the GOP primary debates.
But the juvenile behavior is what did him in. The GOP primary based LIKED that behavior. The general electorate not so much.
My impression of the debate was that if someone liked Trump going in, it didn't change their mind. If someone liked Hillary going in, that sentiment was probably solidified. But among the "I haven't been paying attention and let's have a look at these candidates" viewers, I'd like to think that most found his behavior off-putting.
But what those people found off-putting is really core to his personality, and that's not going to change by adjusting a dial somewhere in his head.
Whiskeytide
(4,461 posts)... anyone who understood what Reagan was trying to talk about recognized that he was full of shit substantively. He looked bad and Mondale ate his lunch.
But unfortunately 54% of viewers didn't understand what he was trying to talk about any more than he did. To them, his timing and delivery - I.e. his "acting" -looked very presidential.
We don't need to make the same mistake with Trump. DUers are generally much better informed than the electorate, and it seems inconceivable to us that anyone could watch Trump in that debate and conclude anything other than he is a blathering, orange-tinted bafoon.
But a lot of viewers don't get that. I don't think anyone other than his most rabid fans think he won - but many think he did ok, held his own, scored some points, etc...
We need to keep up the effort. The republican political machine may be sputtering because of the Trump curveball their base gave them, but all those strategist didn't suddenly become imbiciles with Trump's nomination. They are working feverishly to put lipstick on him, and in today's sound byte news cycle, that could have an impact.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Pervert.
Seriously, this says it all:
[center]Elaine Replogle ?@ElaineReplogle
Best post-debate meme I've seen. Good summary. #ClintonWon #Debates2016
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)Like he has "gravitas" What a joke!
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)his rallies for the last month for a reason. In 90 minutes the man undid all the work his campaign has done in the last month. Sorry, that WAS NOT the plan.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But I am thinking they will intervene and get him better prepared with talking points and such so that his second debate performance will look like an improvement and that's what the pundits will talk about.
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)When he tries to do Trump differently he looks sedated & creepy and it doesn't last, & especially now with HRC who will make sure to push his million buttons!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Though sedated Trump seems to go over well with a lot of folks for some reason.
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)She does her homework! She prepared for all the Trumps. Now she also knows the limitations of his mental capacities.
TRUMP might get better! HRC too! and she is good! She gave a hard time & was a challenge to Obama in 26 debates! Obama a brilliant and charming person.
The world does not revolve around Trump.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The question is how the media frames it and how the general public responds.
HRC is great. She is smarter than Trump. She knows infinitely more about the issues than Trump. She is more compassionate than Trump. She is more qualified than Trump in every respect by leaps and bounds.
And yet, here we are with a close race.
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Trump is a monumentally awful candidate and HRC is one of the most qualified people ever to run for the office.
Why are we not looking at a 40+ state landslide?
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)I'm assuming it means you don't want to talk to me about this anymore. If so, I will respect that.
If it means something else, please clarify.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Trump did not practice because his ego would not him llow to consider that a women could kick his ass.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Conway and company got him to change from talking off the cuff at rallies to reading off teleprompters.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Clinton has barely scratched the surface of the shit in Trump's past.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Hopefully HRC wipes the floor with him and that will be that.
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)He sucks at debating when he has to actually answer a question posed - and not just let out one of his shrill nagging screams at a someone.
JCanete
(5,272 posts)MH1
(17,595 posts)if he is even barely noticeably better in the second debate.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Even if he didn't do this intentionally, I agree with you about how the media will approach the second debate.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)The first 30 minutes or so were on script then the crazy came out. It's kind of an insult to Hillary to assume he controlled the debate.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He will prepare differently for the second one, under Conway and company's guidance, and the media narrative will be all about how much he improved.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)monumentally stupid in the second debate. I wouldn't take that bet with a gun to my head.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)And maybe even likely. But the question is what the media will identify as the narrative and how it gets framed.
As you know, Trump says at least a dozen monumentally stupid things every day. It's almost too many - to the point that it is hard for any one of the comments to get any traction with the wider community.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)how good Conway is. Yes, she got him on the teleprompter but just look at yesterday. Whining about microphones and insulting the moderator he was praising the night before, doubling down on Ms. Universe - how could she possibly think either of those things are the way a President should behave?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But considering what she is working with, I think she has done some things well. She is certainly better than the "Says Who?" guy.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)what I call damning with faint praise. It has gotten to the point where (other than the debate), I hadn't listened to donnie's voice in about a month. Can't stand him, can't stand his children, can't stand his surrogates. I didn't want Romney and certainly didn't want McCain as President - but I never was disgusted by either one of them. I'm disgusted by anything trump.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But, for some reason, tens of millions of Americans do not.
Why do you think Hillary isn't ahead by 10+ points in every state?
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)The harping on things that have been investigated to death (Benghazi and emails) and giving donnie a pass on his crooked, vile foundation, his tax returns, his mob ties, his repulsive misogyny. Their desperation for ratings and a horse race has made their coverage magical balance fairy bullshit.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That is my point.
The media wants it to be close.
Trump having a bad first debate and an "improved" second debate helps feed that narrative.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)he has it in him to BE better in the second debate. The media needs something to work with and I'm not convinced he can give them that. Not with 100 million people watching. The people I'm talking to think he's going to throw the kitchen sink at her - that it's going to get even uglier and the rest of the campaign will be run from the gutter. I don't think that will help him find voters that aren't already voting for him.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It might not be in him. He might be incapable of even a mediocre performance.
But if his people are able to feed him one good zinger - that could be all the MSM decides to talk about.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Remember, conservatives aren't funny so most of their "zingers" are insults and hurtful. All the best comedians are liberals - they can slice you up with a smile - that's all Hillary has to do. While I think the media has carried him this far, I don't think they can get him over the finish line.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Well, here's hoping that things continue to trend in her direction.
Blue Idaho
(5,045 posts)He really is that shallow and that dim witted.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)but it's one of the many things we can discuss the day after
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Donald Trump's ego wouldn't allow him to do that.
Anyone could see he was flustered. Body language experts point to his constant sniffles and and water drinking was evidence of high anxiety and tension. He was shouting that he had a great demeanor.
And if that was the plan, it was a stupid one. Not one candidate who was winning in the polls after the first debate has lost the Presidency.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)They managed to get him to go from giving rallies where he talked off the top of his head, went to states that didn't matter, and mocked HRC for using a teleprompter, to going only to battleground states, talking from a prepared speech, and using a teleprompter exclusively.
In the Reagan-Mondale election, Reagan was awful in the first debate and people were starting to have doubts about him winning. Then he turned it around in the second debate with one quip (even though he wasn't great apart from that) and that was all it took to change the narrative.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)I think Conway is a crappy campaign manager. I don't think Donald will be able debate properly no matter what he does.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But they have had an impact - and it has helped him.
If you watch his rallies in the pre-Conway days and contrast them with the post-Conway ones, they are very different from one another.
Grammy23
(5,810 posts)What we need to keep in mind is that this man is suffering from a personality disorder. It is true that, to our knowledge, he has never been officially diagnosed with Narcissistic Personality Disorder, but if you run down the symptom list, you can check every box. And there is no need to check every box to meet the criteria.
To expect him to perform normally is unrealistic. He is simply not capable of keeping up a normal fascade for 90 minutes. In addition, you know Hillary was trained to look for opportunities to go after his vulnerable issues. It is a well known fact that he can't stand to be questioned about his wealth or business acumen. So she managed to aim for those areas and hit the target. He began to crumble at that point and by the end it was clear who choked. But it was totally predictable. Look how he behaves in front of his adoring fans, vs being on the debate stage where he was not the adored entertainer. His personality disorder betrayed him and there is NOTHING he can do about that. Things won't get better next time. He will bring the same old guy he's always been....only next time it could be worse because she has bested him one time. She knows how to bait him and he simply can't resist the temptation to hit back. Hide and watch....it will be a real pleasure to see him get smacked around again.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But he does employ odd strategies that may appear to be losses in order to win the longer game. Like going bankrupt, which he spins as part of a winning strategy.
I hope you are right and he does even more poorly the next time around. I think Kelly and the crew will get on him and he will be better prepared with talking points and will stick to them more.
It seems like it is setting up for the media narrative to be amazed at how much better he is in the second debate.
But who knows.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)What the fuck is this bullshit.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I predict the story will be how much he improved over debate #1.
but i understand how youve let trump live inside your head. it gets better.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)He is now an expert debater, just did not bring his best with him last night.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)But even so, I predict that he will do better next time and the media will gush over how much he improved.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)Sandersdemocrat2020
(91 posts)Trump supporter Rudy Giuliani has suggested that Trump skip the next two debates. Clearly, Trump got beaten so badly that Giuliani fears exposing Trump to another beating by Hillary. The Emperor has no clothes.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)This debate was awful for him. It would be great for HRC is he never debated again and this one left the only lasting impression.
Frank Cannon
(7,570 posts)If he just wanted to look merely incompetent, he succeeded in the first hour. But he got worse as the evening progressed, until finally he was completely off the rails.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But I predict the narrative after the next debate will be how much better he did compared to this one.
athena
(4,187 posts)Or are you just a total pessimist?
All I see coming from you with respect to Hillary is negativity.
If you're just a pessimist, please try to relax. Hillary's got this. She knows Donald's game way better than you -- even better than Donald himself.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)What an odd response.
There is no negativity in this post directed at Hillary. She did an outstanding job.
Trump did poorly and everyone is saying so.
The narrative for the next debate will be how much he has improved.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Will you stop it.
Embarrassing.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)IMO
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Long history and much respect. A shocking descent.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)What's the point of posting something that you don't want people to respond to and discuss?
My belief having watched this cycle and others is that the narrative from the media after the next debate will be all about how much Trump has improved over this one.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I just got to thinking that of past debates and how a frequent narrative has been how much the person who did poorly in the first debate improved in the second one.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I find your posts to be dishonest, and it makes me very sad.
obamanut2012
(26,064 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Not just writing +1.
If everyone agrees on every single thing, then what is the point?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I always have appreciated your responses, and I enjoy having smart discussions with those who disagree with me on some points. It helps me to reflect on my own perceptions and at times re-evaluate them.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)But I only discuss things with people who are acting in good faith.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)And I acknowledge that I could be wrong about things (and have been in the past).
I am a devoted member of Team Hillary and have been working assiduously for her campaign. I go back to the Bill Clinton days when I went door to door in Elyria, Ohio doing Get Out the Vote work.
When I am among like-minded HRC supporters, I feel comfortable engaging in discussions about looking at how the election is playing out, trying to see what Trump's strategy is, and taking note of the way the MSM covers the election.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)for Trump. We have a great debate and you say ...Hillary did not win but Trump lost it deliberately...what does that say about Hillary?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)She is smarter and more competent than him in every respect.
My hypothesis is that Trump didn't really prep for the first one and his team let him do it this way.
For the second one, they will force him to do more work and will arm him with more effective one liners.
Then he will have another bad debate but it won't be as bad (or it will contain one good line).
Then the media, which wants it to be close, will talk about how much he improved.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)He is a Sarah Palin kind of candidate...word salad or smart ass quips ...nothing in between.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But in his teleprompter speeches he has lines written for him by others that are relatively coherent (though still deplorable in terms of their content).
obamanut2012
(26,064 posts)Which is sad.
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)"Hey, remember how bad I was last time? Today I'm not gonna be THAT bad."
Rudy Giuliani tried something similar in the 2008 republican primaries. He held back for the first two primaries and wanted to come back swinging for the THIRD primary. Except that by that time he had lost all momentum and media-attention.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Reagan gave a universally terrible debate performance the first time.
Then he has one good line in the second one, and that was all it took.
Funtatlaguy
(10,870 posts)He's scared he's now close enuf again in the polls, that he thinks victory is possible.
He just wants all the attention and to lose very closely (where he can claim cheating).
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He sure doesn't seem like he actually wants to do the job of being president.
But these days it seems like he wants to win, for his own narcissistic reasons.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)I would appreciate some credit for our brilliant candidate.
Funtatlaguy
(10,870 posts)On both style and substance she was outstanding.
But, the media had all spun this on this debate being a referendum on Trump.
I was only referring to his performance which was baffling to me.
Why he was so hostile and rude when he had been warned by his staff not to makes me wonder if he really wants the job and all of the hard work it would mean.
Either way, she earned a bump in the polls and I sure hope it comes next week.
CincyDem
(6,347 posts)Might have been said down thread but it strikes me that Trump likely sees the debates as a means to an end.
Given the polarization between these two, it's likely that 85% of the people are locked and loaded.
For me personally, it's hard for me to imagine what I could learn between now and November that would cause me to say...hey, wtf - let's vote Trump. Just not happening on this planet.
And for every me, there's a Trump supporter with the same mindset about his/her candidate. While I disagree (vehemently) with their choice, that's why we have elections.
I wonder if they're playing a timing game on when those 15% are going to engage. Right now they're either Johnson, Stein, or truly undecided. They're going to peel off at some point and be ready to "go get some data" on the big two.
I had a conversation with my son's room mate. He's voting for Stein (I know, wtf ???) because HRC and DJT are "the same"...they both lie. He said he might reconsider as we get closer. When I asked how he was going to reconsider differentiating these two candidates that are the same he said I guess I have to start paying attention to the news. He wasn't intending to watch Monday's debate and I haven't followed up.
My point is - the group that's going to make the decision in this one...the 15% not playing between the big two today...there's a big group of the NOT engaged yet. We think 7 weeks and panic. They think 7 weeks and say...I got 6 weeks and 6 days to decide.
Looking at their strategy - I think it's valid to at least consider the possibility they're playing money and message to target the late breakers at the time when they are breaking. Marketing 101: message the consumer when and where they're ready to make a decision.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Thank you for sharing them!
The Trump supporters are not going anywhere no matter what he says or does. He made the point that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any support - hyperbole though that may be, it's not far from the truth.
Your marketing points are spot on - timing is critical.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)His ego loves "running" for President. He would hate being President.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He wants to win the election and then not actually have to do the work.
Although, I think his ego would love the idea of him being the leader of the free world.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)And even if he does, he will have one good line and that will be the focus from the post-debate media.
Like Reagan's quip about Mondale's age back in the day.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)Hillary has done a lot of these type of those, arguably more than Trump. Trump will struggle to answer the types of local questions that they bring about. Clinton will be able to name drop local businesses, local community organizers, and get right to the core of the issues.
Trump will be forced to resort to his pointless stump, and he will come off as ingeniune.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Which would be even worse, timing-wise.
Two bad debates and a strong finish would play well in the media who want this to be a horse race.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)But, and this is the big one, he will have to actually sit down and learn policy, and actually be able to explain the policy in clear detail. Clinton is going to go to that thing so prepped with policy application that it's going to be kind of ridiculous. The first one she almost ran the clock out with her long drawn out explanations but by the third she's going to have to adopt Trump's more down to earth style.
Fortunately, things like Climate change and social issues will dominate that debate (the first one was economy and foreign policy, the last one will be about domestic issues). Clinton will have a free pass on that one simply by virtue of the topics that will be discussed.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I'm not sure that it would be necessary for Trump to do so either - as long as he had the broad strokes and repeated his talking points without veering off into saying the things he actually wants to say.
Not that the media is spinning the concept that HRC was "too prepared" or that she seemed smug and condescending. Many in the MSM are looking for a way to equalize things so that the race is close and people will keep watching their shows.
Trump will be given a few sentences on climate change and social issues, but more importantly for the masses, he just needs a zinger or two that people find amusing and/or effective.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)Really, he hit the email, he hit foreign policy flubs, he even somehow tried to pull the Superpredator Gambit. It all fell flat, it went absolutely no where. Shit, the guy tried to pull the DNC/DSW/Sanders got tricked thing. It was all a mishmash of patheticness.
All Clinton has to do is point out that Trump's VAT idea is ludicrous and he'll stumble over himself once more.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I have a feeling that his team will prep him with something new for the next one. It may or may not land. Hopefully it will be another disaster and he will fall off in the polls. It seems, though, that it behooves the MSM to try to keep this race close so that people will watch their shows.
Funtatlaguy
(10,870 posts)She will be much better at walking the stage and approaching questioners.
Trump hates people....so....
Plus, it will be so hard for him to be quiet and remain seated when she has the floor and the audience may boo him if he starts with his interrupting.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)She spent well over 95% of her campaign in small roundtables and local groupings. People come away from those events thinking she cares, they see a side of her that the mass media doesn't exhbit. Emails, Benghazi, calculating, evil, shrew, etc, etc. In real life she's a human being and she's actually really nice to work with.
The Clinton mythology will be completely rewritten on that Town Hall. People will come away shocked with how approachable she is. And it'll have a good 80+ million viewers.
underpants
(182,736 posts)That's really who he is. From being a dolt to being an asshole. Head to tail....or in his case, vice versa.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think they will and he will do slightly better and the media will run with the narrative of how improved he was.
underpants
(182,736 posts)C. If the media were close to being competent there would be no contest right now. In fact, Trump would have been ignored after his first campaign appearance (with paid actors filling in as the audience).
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He used to talk off the top of his head until Kelly and company took over. From that point on, every rally involved prepared speeches with teleprompters - something he previously mocked HRC for doing.
The media is not competent - they want a horse race so more people will watch their yammering so they can sell more ads.
underpants
(182,736 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)That's sort of my point - let's see how they are perceived in a couple of weeks.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)At one of his 'rallies' (Herr Trump), a 70-year-old woman was beaten. I see the same old scum there, and they behave badly too...He doubled down on his Miss Universe attack. And I can tell you woman are outraged by this sort of behavior. Also, it was during the Kelly run, that Trump totally botched the birther issue crap and the stop and frisk crap. I still say Trump will lose and badly. I don't credit him or his dime-store campaign which can't even get a ground game up and running with improving Trump's chances which in my opinion are zero.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Watch a pre-Conway rally. He talks off the top of his head. Post-Conway, he reads off a teleprompter. It is night and day.
Obviously, we on this board are repulsed by him regardless, but my point is that the media and the people that want to like him (Republican elites, etc.) were able to get on board with him when he switched over to being Teleprompter Trump who repeated the crap they wanted to hear.
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)In the second and third debates too.
He's not capable of 12th dimensional chess. He's shown us who he is all of this time - and we need to believe him. We also need to believe he doesn't have the skill sets of 'thinking on his feet', memorizing statistics/data/dates/facts, and tempering his speech and body language.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I am talking about what the media spin will be.
Remember, we on this board want HRC to win in a landslide.
The media wants it to be a nail-biter to the end (and would probably prefer Trump as the winner, ratings-wise).
Yes, he will suck in the next two debates. But he might suck a little less - and that's all it will take to spin the narrative into a story of how much he improved.
They did that when he switched from talking off the top of his head to reading teleprompter speeches at his rallies.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Basically, they wanted to do that this time, but he did so badly, they could not help him in any way. Next time will be worse for him. Again, Hillary won the debate period... she did not win by default as this post implies.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)They can say it wasn't a bad debate. They can focus on one good line. They can frame it however they want.
Watch the Reagan-Mondale second debate, 1984. Mondale destroyed him again. But all anyone talked about was Reagan's one quip about Mondale's age.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)They will say how much better he came across in the second debate than the first one.
They want it to be close. That helps their ratings.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Sounds like you're already in the tank for him next debate. If that sounds harsh, maybe re-read your thread and your audience.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)And my analysis will either prove to be correct or prove to be incorrect based on the media reaction.
The point I am making is that the media wants this to be a close race for obvious reasons - and it is now set up for him to "improve" in the second debate from their perspective.
This is what happened with Reagan v Mondale, even though to my mind Mondale won both debates handily.
stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Along with most neighboring states.
stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)Racist and RWNJ's...
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Alabama is predominated by such people?
obamanut2012
(26,064 posts)No.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)And will prep more for the next one and then the media will spin the "improved" narrative to keep things close?
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)That is just nuts. The first debate is the most important one. Future ones may change some opinions on the edge but the first one sets the narrative.
America saw the real Trump.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Since it is closest to Election Day?
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Is normally the most watched. But after the Trump shitshow more may watch the following just for the entertainment value.
Madam45for2923
(7,178 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)I am not saying he pretended to be stupid for this debate. I am saying maybe he took it lightly and will take the second one more seriously. And that will be able to feed into a narrative that could work for him in the MSM.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)maybe if it was a man it would have been different.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But maybe he will approach #2 differently and was going loose into the first one. Maybe his team will work with him more and then re-frame things into a "comeback" narrative.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)...sometimes the stupid candidate is the stupid one...
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But he may come across as slightly less stupid for debate #2 and then the MSM can talk about how improved he was.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)...He tried sober and "restrained" on Monday; now he'll go for the gut punch.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)You may be right, but I bet the Conway team is advising him to go the other way.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Just quotes a few unnamed sources saying that others have greater influence.
It is certainly clear that there has been a shift in the way he conducts his rallies that began when she joined the campaign.
longship
(40,416 posts)As has been argued for months here on DU!
Hint. He ain't gonna drop out. Nor will he drop out of the debates. He's in too deep to give up. EGO!!!!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I still can't believe this is real.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Until then, I remain anxious.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)the electorate's ignorance nor the capacity for Democrats to fuck this up north the gross negligence and superficiality of the media.
What I'm talking about is the laughable assertion this man is either as clever as to think of something like that. Or that he would take someone's advice to come across as a deranged uninformed buffoon on purpose. He's also not stupid enough to purposefully make himself look that much worse on purpose on the most watched debate of the year. He does understand TV and ratings. Sometimes what you see is what you get.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The man himself is not clever enough, but what about his campaign team?
Couldn't it have played out this way:
Trump: I am going to wing it this first debate and not really do any prep work.
Team: Fine.
Trump bombs the debate since he is a moron.
Team: OK, now you need to let us give you lines to say and prepare you more.
Trump: Fine.
So from the start, the team was OK with him tanking the first debate because it would help them to build the "comeback" or "improved" narrative for the next one.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)any less laughable. Nothing was done "on purpose". He didn't prepare because he doesn't think he has to. Which is the way he's always been. Even the morons he's surrounded himself with understood the importance of him "shining through" to capitalize on the recent poll tightening. Not a single one of them very cool with him shooting himself in the dick.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)In fact, I am starting to doubt my initial thought based on the reasoned responses of my fellow DU-ers.
I think the team will try to spin a narrative of "improvement" for the next one, but it probably was not the plan from the outset for him to bomb so badly in the first one.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)corporate press to chug it up. But what you typed was that it was "tanked on purpose". Did you not? At this point I don't know why you keep pretending people are arguing with you about something else.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I edited the initial post and will back off that argument.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)So, maybe you're right...
The first debate is always the most important. It's the most watched and generally the most talked about. A bounce back performance doesn't generally help a candidate who shat the bed in the first debate.
Case in point: 2012. Obama had a really bad first debate. He did much better in the second debate. That second debate performance might have stopped the bleeding of his poor first debate, and everyone universally said he had improved, but it didn't change the dynamics of the race like the first debate.
If Trump takes a polling hit after Monday night, a strong second debate, at best, only stops the bleeding - it won't net him any new votes. However, had he come out strong Monday, been calm, answered questions, shown respect, looked presidential, he possibly could have done much better and gained votes instead of losing 'em.
If this is his strategy, his campaign is really fucking dumb because it's a really dumb strategy.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Here's what I wrote about them upthread:
Mondale thoroughly destroyed him in the first debate and everyone knew it. Every story in the press reflected that fact and Reagan dropped in the polls and people started to think that he might lose.
Mondale also destroyed Reagan in the second debate, but Reagan had one good quip about Mondale's age.
This was all anyone talked about - disregarding the actual content of what they debated, and talking about what a "winning line" that one sentence was.
That is the kind of thing that even Trump is capable of doing (having one good line - written for him by someone else).
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Like the dumbest strategy you can get - to purposely bomb the most viewed debate in American history so that you might be able to improve your standing during a second debate where less people will be watching.
Obama mopped the floor with Romney in the second debate, maybe having his best debate performance ever, and the best it did was stop the bleeding from his absolute terrible first debate. It didn't gain him any new votes - plus, HE WAS LEADING.
Prior to the first debate, Obama held a +4 point lead among voters over Romney. A week after the debate, Romney was +.7, meaning Obama lost a margin of 4.7 points in a WEEK over his poor debate performance. Obama never again regained that 4 point edge in the average of polls, though ended up eventually winning by about that margin in November.
Had he done well in that first debate, as well as he did in the second and third debates, he would have probably won that election by a wider margin. Instead, he gave Romney an opening to climb back into it - and he did. Because of that, 2012 was closer than it maybe should have been.
Almost the exact same thing happened in 2004 for Bush and Kerry. Bush bombed the first debate, Kerry erased a seven-point deficit in the polls seemingly overnight, and made it the horse race it would remain, despite stronger debates by Bush and Cheney.
The big difference here is that Trump was losing prior to the debate and now runs the risk of even losing more votes. IF the trend continues of poor poll numbers, even including Mondale in '84, Trump's deficit will grow, which means he'll have to gain a far larger net amount of votes after the second debate - which is generally not likely. In 2012, and 2004, more relevant elections than 1984, Obama and Bush only managed to gain a portion of the support they had lost after the second debate. If that's the same for Trump, he's still in the negative.
No. The smartest prep would have been to come out calmly, look presidential, get in some zingers, but otherwise handle the debate like, you know, a debate. The expectations were SO LOW for Trump that he would have won Monday had he just done that - and potentially took control of the race. Instead, in front of the largest audience in debate history, he shat all over the stage. It doesn't matter what he does in the next two debates. He royally mucked up that first debate and that will be the lasting impression of this election.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I can't really argue with what you've written here.
MADem
(135,425 posts)I must say, there's no one as articulate as an Irishman in full voice:
The expectations were SO LOW for Trump that he would have won Monday had he just done that - and potentially took control of the race. Instead, in front of the largest audience in debate history, he shat all over the stage.
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)"Oh...NOW he's going to pivot and become PRESIDENTIAL!!!1!"
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think it behooves us to try to understand why it is not Hillary ahead by ten in every state.
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)to "dick-ish-ness".
oberliner
(58,724 posts)What this says about tens of millions of Americans is really depressing.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)next debate."
BTW: Not my type program, but I turned TV on this morning and one of the morning talk shows was showing the clip. It was funny watching that old guy try to avoid saying Trump was awful, but you could see it in his face.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)They want to be able to say that he did better in the second one.
bigtree
(85,986 posts)...I mean, repeatedly on this thread.
I'm just gobsmacked at the effort. WTF is this?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He can't win a debate. I have repeatedly said in this thread that Hillary will win every debate. That she is better than him by leaps and bounds in every respect.
I am saying, he could have a better debate than he did the first time, and the media could spin it as an improvement and could focus on maybe one good "zinger" that was written for him and delivered at some point in the debate, because they want it to be close.
This is what happened with Reagan v Mondale in 1984.
bigtree
(85,986 posts)...he's openly trashed them at every opportunity and they're chomping at the bit to prove him wrong and unsuccessful - like almost everyone who has a modicum of self-respect.
When was the last time you saw so many major news sources flat out calling a candidate a liar? That's no small feat for Trump. He's been asking for this from the press and he's getting it full-blast. Who really wants to be known for propping this moron up, in any way? You really would be clinging to the last strand of toilet paper looking to clean-up his shitshow.
Glad to hear you're not holding out any chance that he'll best Hillary in any way, shape, or form in these debates. No one can spin away what is essentially classic Trump. His lies and half-truths worked just fine in the republican primary, with like-minded conservative audiences and pundits. On the national stage, in this major venue, however, Trump was revealed to be a pathetic moron. That's not going to change.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Trump has no where NEAR the self-discipline it would take to pull that off.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But did you notice how he went from giving rallies where he just talked off the top of his head, to ones where he spoke completely off a teleprompter? It was a complete transformation of how he approached those things.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Conway knows that when he's left to talk on his own, he goes off the rails. They can get him to use a Teleprompter (badly), but he can't use a teleprompter at a debate, and his natural inner asshole comes right on out.
No. No way this is part of some big plan.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Conway took over and got him to do what she wanted him to do.
You might be right that this is not part of some big plan, but I think that the media does want to be able to keep the horse race going and will look for any "improvement" from Trump in debate #2. Conway will give him advice in that general direction. He might be incapable of taking it, but he has listened to her in the past.
LisaM
(27,800 posts)Last edited Wed Sep 28, 2016, 01:23 PM - Edit history (1)
Apparently he thinks he's done well in all his debates.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But I cannot imagine that his inner circle agrees.
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)aftermath. Then, once he found out what a complete clown and joke he was perceived as by much of the country, he totally pivoted and claimed that Lester Holt was absolutely horrible.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He didn't realize what his talking points were supposed to be and was, as you say, speaking quite well of Holt at first.
wishstar
(5,268 posts)He will be even nastier seeking revenge, not just hitting hard on Benghazi, email crap but more personal insults
Jade Fox
(10,030 posts)yuiyoshida
(41,831 posts)Something Fishy going on!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think I get the play on words, but I'm not sure.
yuiyoshida
(41,831 posts)Aquarium would make no sense at all
Pisces
(5,599 posts)Doodley
(9,078 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Is there something funny to you about the word tromboner?
longship
(40,416 posts)And Drumpf is going to give up ANY DAY NOW!!!!
Only part of some people's game. Delusional.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)but this fucking election is driving me nuts. I need to step back and realize that whatever will happen happen. Regardless of how much I panic or yell at my computer. I'm beyond disgusted that half the electorate thinks "Sarah Palin with a dick in a cheap ass, over sized, shitty Chinese suit" is anywhere near qualified to hold that office.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)This election has been driving me nuts as well.
In particular, how some in the media seemed to be so "impressed" by the "new and improved" Trump when he started reading from teleprompters.
They seem to be so easily duped by such obviously choreographed BS moves by their campaign. For instance, when he visited Mexico, I heard a lot about how "presidential" he looked.
So I guess, it struck me that perhaps Trump's people were good with him having a poor first debate so that they can lead the media towards the "comeback" narrative that they so very much want to be able to promote to keep people watching.
But, in retrospect, it probably was not a deliberate calculation to have him do poorly in the debate, they will just take that fact and try to use it in the way described above.
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)He believes he was too "respectful" of her and still didn't get enough credit. Now he'll show them how a real debate should look and be gunning for her from the opening bell.
He'll be like a wounded bull, spitting blood and bile. Hope she comes in with a cape and sword to end this mercifully.
Also think Trump will be bolder in the 2nd debate with Martha Raddatz and Anderson Cooper because he perceives them differently than Lester Holt. Pretty certain given the format and his hubris, he'll challenge the moderators almost as much as HRC. That's likely to be a big mistake on his part.
CJohnson_LS
(52 posts)I think I get your point. It does really feel like he intentionally underperformed, in order to get the standards for him lowered ever further for the 2nd and 3rd debates. On the other hand, considering how much of a dumbass Donald is, I don't think he's that clever.
I mean, it's pretty obvious that he can't handle 1 on 1 debates, especially with a seasoned debater like Hillary.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)This was his chance to show America he was "presidential". No way he's throw it away knowing he will never be seen by such a huge audience again