Perhaps I'm overreacting, but the debate is feeling like a very positive turning point to me.

[Silent3]

Yes, I know there are (possibly) two more debates to go, that any number of wild and weird unexpected things could yet happen, and that we should never get complacent.

Nevertheless, after having felt extremely discouraged with the 538 odds approaching break even, I'm feeling a lot more upbeat now. While I don't expect the debate to sway any strong Trump supporters, I don't think the recent negative swings in the polls toward Trump that we've seen consist of of newly-minted diehard Trump fans, but simply soft support from voters who are probably still pretty fluid. I'm feeling good that within a week we'll see the tide noticeably turn back in Clinton's favor.

Clinton is not only widely viewed as having won the most-watched presidential debate ever, but she's winning the post-debate spin as far as I can tell too. When you add on top of that what appears to be growing media scrutiny of Trump scandals and lies, I'm getting... dare I say it? Cautiously optimistic: optimistic that more people will see Clinton as an appealing candidate, not just a mere lesser of two evils, and maybe be see enough (or be reminded) of the ugly and ignorant side of Trump so that they can shake off some of the creeping normalization of Trump's atrocious behavior that the media has both allowed and created.

Anyone else feel this way too? Does anyone want to throw cold water on me instead?

[Wounded Bear]

1. I never really lost hope...

but yes, this should turn the polls a bit. I hoping for a several point bump for Clinton by end of week.

She was pretty good there.

[underthematrix]

2. I think Trump is gonna go all in during the second debate and it could get very ugly

[Silent3]

5. Does Trump have an "all in" that doesn't look like the crap he pulled during the Republican debates?

The red meat that got the rabid Republicans going mostly doesn't work for the general population. The wingnuts love crazy and unhinged. What do you imagine an effective-for-the-general-election Trump version of "all in" would look like?

Does Trump know how to act sane and appeal to the undecided middle-of-the-road voters without turning into dull teleprompter Donald?

[underthematrix]

11. I think he's gonna propel himself further down into the very deep end

of the gutter by bringing Gennifer Flowers to next debate and now the one who accused Clinton sexual harassment wants to attend too

Donald is mentally disturbed and policy illiterate. Also he seems to speak in word salad when he's under stress. He literally said this "feds doing political" He can't seem to recall what he said five minutes ago which looks and sounds a lot like early stage Alzheimer's.

I imagine everyone on his team knows that he's unfit but he's running to be POTUS. A foreign gov't is running him to be their puppet POTUS.

[rumdude]

19. He's like a wounded animal at this point

Last edited Wed Sep 28, 2016, 02:40 PM - Edit history (1)

Expect anything.

[underthematrix]

49. I agree. We should expect anything

[Demsrule86]

38. So what.

We have a great candidate. I believe her support is underestimated by many.

[bellmartin]

52. I agree, for a few reasons:

1. His easily-wounded pride has been badly wounded.

2. It's not like he has many different cards to play to try to win the next debate. No one, not even he, thinks he's going to out-prepare her on substance, for example.

3. He's going to insist that it's the thing that worked for him time and time again, and that the advice he got to play it more subdued (by his standards) was the worst advice ever.

The very good news is that there's a high likelihood that it will be disastrous for him.

[relayerbob]

3. TBH, I didn't have that much concern to begin with

The polls have been typical to better than average for this time of year, the campaign really didn't get rolling until after Labor Day which is pretty traditional. Many of the polls look like they are using marginal techniques, and the media wants a horse race for ratings. I had little doubt that Hillary would take him out, and yes there may still be some surprise on either side, but I guess I think, despite the best attempts of the GOP, the majority of the US are too intelligent to vote this moron into office. So, pretty much par for the course.

As a statistician, worrying about the effects of individual and random short term variation can drive one insane. Look at the longer trends, and you'll see there is little to panic about.

We just need to get out the vote!! Apathy is the enemy, not Donald trump

[unblock]

4. i still say the defining moment was trump's rickroll birther announcement informercial.

piss off the media and they will piss on you.

[Silent3]

6. There's that too! n/t

[rusty quoin]

7. I get you, but I cannot get any sense of what should happen anymore.

The fact that Trump has got this far is beyond any ability of my skills to predict.

I cannot explain stupid America. They are there. There is no use arguing. They never learn. It's like you agree with them no matter how many times they are wrong, and then we all can talk.

[Silent3]

10. It is indeed very Twilight Zone that Trump has gotten this far.

Nevertheless, I begin to feel some hope that the looming specter of an actual Trump presidency is finally shaking some people out of the reality TV daze.

[rusty quoin]

14. I hope you are right.

But my experience has been they cannot be talked out of it.

John Kerry fake medals...tea party...newest buses for grass roots...where did that come from?...Trump is with the little guy.

It's all bullshit but it has not mattered.

[Silent3]

40. It's not the tea party crazies who shifted over the past 2-3 weeks...

...it's the people in the middle who aren't strongly committed one way or another. I completely agree some people are a lost cause, but we don't have to win over the lost causes to win the race.

[rusty quoin]

53. You're right.

[LeftRant]

8. Maybe, maybe not. Wait for a preponderance of forthcoming polls to know for sure :)

Not stupid online polls either (of course).

[vadermike]

9. If this

Doesn't change the polling I don't know what to think except We would be fucjed But I'm optimistic it changed some minds

[Demsrule86]

37. We heard the same crap in 12.

Basically, many polls had Romney and Obama tied...Obama beat Romney badly. I don't think based on the electoral college that Trump can win.

[RonniePudding]

12. I expect a gradual shift toward Hillary in the coming weeks

It won't be a dramatic bump. It will be death by a thousand paper cuts. Small incremental gains. Every day matters now.

Trump is already guaranteed a bad week as the unpacking of Monday's debacle continues in the media. In a compressed timetable that's a disaster for him.

Slow and steady wins this race.

[vadermike]

13. Agreed

He will be getting bad press from this all week and he extended it because of all the complaining and talikng about Ms Machado What a scumbag

[yeoman6987]

21. I just can't believe today after that terrible debate, he went to Florida

And had a rally where they had to turn away thousands due to attendance numbers already in the rally area. Does that make sense at all? Florida no less. I forgot the city.

[CreekDog]

23. they didn't turn away thousands

stop trying to put Brietbart talking points on here.

really, it's way more obvious than you think it is.

a decent crowd, but oh please, try to contain yourself.

[helpisontheway]

27. Bbbbbuuuuuutttttttt Trump said 12,000 people could not get in...

That man lies every single time he opens his mouth.

[CreekDog]

28. And yeoman believes it

or wants us to.

[Kingofalldems]

42. Boom.

[Demsrule86]

36. You know when you pump Trump up, we get it.

But you are spreading Right-wing talking points, and you should stop. Please consider what wil happen to this country should Trump be elected.

[yeoman6987]

45. MSMbc has the story. Google also works

I put facts and I live in Florida and was on local news. There is no reason to lie about this. None!!!!

[LanternWaste]

46. Hence, you may then imagine our confusion in regards to your posts...

"There is no reason to lie about this. None!!!!"

Hence, you may then imagine our confusion in regards to your posts...

[CreekDog]

47. I saw the local stories and they didn't say thousands were turned away

Why would someone posting here want us to falsely believe Trump had a larger rally than he did?

[Kingofalldems]

41. Why don't you just come out with it?

[CreekDog]

55. I'd have more respect for someone's courage of convictions

than for someone with them who won't be forthright about them.

[radical noodle]

15. I've always thought she would win

but like you I feel a bit of relief or optimism that I didn't before. I was really worried before the debate because Trump is so crazy. I am still worried about her safety, but I'm a natural born worrier.

With newspapers that have never (or rarely) endorsed a Democrat before that are now endorsing Hillary, it gives me hope that there really is more common sense than we can always see.

No cold water here.

[KingCharlemagne]

16. Nice post and I agree! - nt

[vadermike]

17. Well

One of my best friends (he's Hillary) mom (hardcore R , former Dem till 2002 voted Bush 2nd , McCain and loved Romney ,) is voting for Hillary , her brother who is a lifelong R , super conservative voting for Hillary .. They are scared shitless of Trump and don't think she will be that bad So there's that lets hope this continues !

[Demsrule86]

35. Same here.

And my Virginia family including the 'R's' are voting for Hillary because of Kaine.

[world wide wally]

18. I couldn't figure out how votes were swinging to Trump after the lousy week he had to begin with

There was nothing to motivate such a swing in such a short time.

[Demsrule86]

34. I don't think the election is that close.

We heard the same in 12...and it was bullshit.

[Farmgirl1961]

51. I don't think it's as close as the pundits and the polls make it out to be

But what I do worry about is the potential for hacking and if the numbers appear to be closer than they are, it makes hacking that much easier. Does anyone else have this concern?

[TreasonousBastard]

20. I feel the same way...

Trump won the GOP nod as a fresh face running against a weak crowd. He's been a PR hog all his life, and used that to his advantage, but it's interesting to note that he lost in Manhattan, his home base where they know him best.

But now, on a platform where he's not alone ranting, but sharing the stage with a calm professional, it's easy to see what a sham he is. It's kinda like being fascinated by Dr. Oz on TV, but it's a whole 'nother thing if he was in your hospital room yakking on about your oncologist's recommendations.

If you hate Hillary or love Trump, it makes little difference, but there's a lot of people out there who really don't know either of them well enough to make the final decision.

[MyNameIsKhan]

22. Yup with you well said

[WiffenPoof]

24. I agree... But...

Trump will go all out in the second debate and I'm a little worried about that.

The only other concern I have is Clinton's victory laps. If I were her, I would slightly tone down her celebration of her obvious victory.

[Demsrule86]

33. Bullshit

She should not tone down her victory celebration. It revs up the base.

[WiffenPoof]

48. Okay

I was thinking about the undecided voters who might have interpreted Clinton as dancing on Trumps grave. But...I suppose you are right.

[Demsrule86]

50. I gave my opinion ...you gave yours...

Who knows?

[oberliner]

25. Caution

The first Mondale-Reagan debate was a resounding victory for Mondale.

This was bad. Reagan knew it was bad. "As soon as he left the stage," reports Lou Cannon in President Reagan, "Reagan confessed to [adviser Stu] Spencer that he had flopped." According to Jack Germond and Jules Witcover, when Mondale left the stage, he confided to an aide that "This guy is gone" -- as in mentally not all there. Two days after the debate, RNC Chairman Paul Laxalt held a press conference admitting that Reagan had blown it, but "it wasn't because of any physical or mental deficiency... he was brutalized by a briefing process that didn't make any sense." Why mention mental deficiency? Because the "drive-by media" was covering the debate that way, bringing on mental health experts to ask what the hell happened to Reagan. A Newsweek/Gallup poll found 54 percent of debate-watchers giving the victory to Mondale, and only 35 percent to Reagan.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/10/when_ronald_reagan_blew_a_presidential_debate_and_dropped_seven_points_in.html

One good quip in the next debate and all was forgotten.

[JustAnotherGen]

26. I haven't had any doubts

About her winning this thing for a long time now.

I watched the debate on C-SPAN which showed his family pretty up close after the debate - on the stage.

They all look terribly confused.

His older daughter looked like she had been steam rolled and she wasn't even up on that stage.

They didn't go up and shake hands, glad hand, smile, meet their supporters. They just exited stage left.

They can chest thump and bloviate all they want - but it was clear on each of their faces except the maggots that he lost.


It's only a matter of time.

That doesn't mean we should let up. STILL volunteer to get people to the polls and call into states like OH, PA, FL, etc. etc. Personally I want a blow out.

We only get that by doubling down on our volunteer efforts.

[gademocrat7]

29. I feel the same way.

We still have to GOTV.

[BlueMTexpat]

30. There will be lots of "turning points"

between now and Election Day.

Hillary will ultimately shine through and I have never believed otherwise.

Please stay positive - you'll be healthier and happier that way!

[Lunabell]

31. I admit I was scared

But Sec'y Clinton showed up and delivered hard blow. I am ready for round 2 if trump actually shows up. Lol

[Demsrule86]

32. I agree completely.

One would think she lost based on some of the bedwetting posts I have seen. She won!! And it is over for Trump in my opinion.

[Madam45for2923]

39. & HRC will prepare for all of them! Plus she has more experience with real debates than Donald

and now she's experienced the Donald in all his sniffling glory! SHE'S GOT THIS!

[Vinca]

43. I think it was a turning point, but I'm still freaked out.

I made the mistake of switching to CSPAN this morning and heard the pro-Trump knuckle draggers defending the moron. I'm also worried about Russian hackers. What the hell would happen if Russia somehow managed to get the fool elected? How would we ever get Trump out of the White House and hold a new election? I can't wait for this to be over.

[RobinA]

44. I'm Not Counting

my chickens until 11/9. The fact that Trump is even close in the polls is profoundly scary to me. If that is possible, anything is.

[Silent3]

54. After a day's worth of post-debate news coverage, my positive feeling is holding.

Yes, yes, I know things can turn negative again as quickly as they turn positive... but for now, I'm enjoying the moment and the improved sense of hope.

What will really help will be seeing Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina swing back to blue on the 538 map. Not required for a Clinton win, I know, but wins there would certainly end the painful suspense of election night early in the evening.