****** BREAKING*****Another poll showing a debate bump

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Echelon Insights *post-debate* poll 9/26-27

Clinton 47
Trump 42

Clinton 44
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 3
McMullin 2

1,529 LVs (Internet)


https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/781182955452526592?p=v


http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/post_debate_survey_toplines.pdf


http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Final-tabs.pdf

[geek tragedy]

1. How credible is this firm? I know the poll is done over the Internet, but that's about it. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Very credible

http://echeloninsights.com/

[Loki Liesmith]

3. That's a nice website

wonder if they are hiring.

[Stubborn]

9. You know the company is super right-wing, right?

[Loki Liesmith]

19. remind me not to show you my employment history

if not in academia, math geeks have to make some hard choices.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. they are also anti-Trump.

[Stubborn]

32. Super right-wing that's anti-Trump is still super right-wing.

Not sure why anyone on DU would want to work there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I wouldn't work for a GOP pollster, no way !!!

However if there was a polling/consulting company that had Democrats and Republicans equally represented I might consider it. But they would have to be reasonable Republicans and not deplorables...

[Brother Buzz]

13. Nate Silver's 538 doesn't recognize Echelon Insights, let alone grade them

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Is Nate Silver some demigod whose word is dispositive?

The principals are certainly credible:

Kristen Soltis Anderson is a pollster and author of The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (And How Republicans Can Keep Up). She is co-founder of Echelon Insights and is a columnist for The Washington Examiner. During the fall of 2014, she was a Resident Fellow at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. Previously, she served as Vice President of The Winston Group, a Republican polling firm in DC. In 2013, she was named one of TIME Magazine’s “30 under 30 Changing the World,” Marie Claire’s “New Guard“ of fifty rising female leaders, one of Campaigns & Elections’ “The Influencers 50” as one of the campaign “disruptors” to watch, and as one of National Journal Magazine’s “25 Most Influential Women Under 35 in Washington.”

Patrick Ruffini is a strategist, thinker, and organizer focused on data and technology’s disruptive impact on politics and business. He was among the first digital strategists in American politics, working for President Bush’s 2004 campaign, directing the Republican National Committee’s digital strategy in 2006, and founding Engage, a leading digital agency in politics and issue advocacy. Ruffini has led technology efforts in three successive Presidential cycles and advised clients around the world.


http://echeloninsights.com/

[Brother Buzz]

29. Perhaps you should put the buzz in Nate Silver's ear....

because I suspect he doesn't read that fish wrap, The Washington Examiner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Should I put the "Buzz" in Nate Tin's ear that...

Nate Silver's 538 doesn't recognize Echelon Insights, let alone grade them

-Brother Buzz

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Perhaps you should put the buzz in Nate Silver's ear....

-Brother Buzz

Should I put the "Buzz" in Nate Tin's ear that Ms. Soltis Anderson was a Resident Fellow at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics. Previously, she served as Vice President of The Winston Group, a Republican polling firm in DC. In 2013, she was named one of TIME Magazine’s “30 under 30 Changing the World,” Marie Claire’s “New Guard“ of fifty rising female leaders, one of Campaigns & Elections’ “The Influencers 50” as one of the campaign “disruptors” to watch, and as one of National Journal Magazine’s “25 Most Influential Women Under 35 in Washington.”



I think we can stipulate she is an expert in the field of political surveys.

[Stubborn]

34. So what? nt

[Brother Buzz]

35. 538 looks at hundreds and hundreds of polls, and.....

and this one flew under their radar. Someone needs to put the buzz in the slacker's head, and tell him about this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. It's right here.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

[Brother Buzz]

38. Cool, I retract my 'slacker' comment, the dude is on the ball

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I love you. Have a terrific day !!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Your post does not show a before-after comparison. What bump?

[Stubborn]

10. ^^THIS^^

[triron]

14. what is

the before so I can compare??

[Loki Liesmith]

21. It's a bump over trend

Measuring poll to poll differences not always best given size of potential sampling error.

Look at the mean lead over polls before and after debate. Within individual polls...a crapshoot.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

23. Where's trend this poll shows past? I'm getting impression THIS poll is a bogus crapshoot. period.nt

[Loki Liesmith]

25. Not this poll all polls

Comparing brand x poll before and brand x poll after assumes too much about house effects we don't know

[chillfactor]

5. I take it this is...

a country-wide poll.

[jodymarie aimee]

6. After that debate, we can't get her over 50?

Even without the fake online polls, his deplorables sticking with him. I just had a fight with one in my hallway. He pretty much put his hands over his ears.....

[Stubborn]

11. It is a right-wing site, FWIW. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Good girl !! :) Personally, think it's time for her to start laying out her

vision, exclusively. He calls attention to his crazy just fine by himself.

I say this because lots of interviewees/undecideds are saying she's not giving them the reason to vote for her.

[Democat]

17. Sad right wing talking point, but Trump is losing

Hard to take getting beat by a woman?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. Don't waste time on Deplorables except to laugh at them. Spend it on leaners & undecideds. . nt

[rumdude]

8. Will Drudge post this? Of course not.

He's such a lying sack of !@@#$!

I truly dislike Matt Drudge.

[Loki Liesmith]

22. Has-been

Ignore him

[Dem2]

36. Who?

[titaniumsalute]

15. Sadly it isn't a credible poll

And a correction...50% of the poll was taken on Monday which would have been pre-debate. Most pollsters won't call past 9pm.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. How is it not a credible poll?

[Wounded Bear]

16. Too soon for a debate bump...IMNSHO.

I won't trust many polls claiming some kind of debate influence before Friday, maybe late Thursday. More likely, it won't show up til the weekend.

[scheming daemons]

18. Untrue... half of the poll was taken after the debate

[Wounded Bear]

20. I wasn't saying you should follow my lead...

thanks for the info, but I will be patient.

[Iliyah]

27. Creditable or not, seems like many statisticians are taking all

polling outfits at face value.

Thanks DSB!