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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver now shows Florida as a light blue
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
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Nate Silver now shows Florida as a light blue (Original Post)
still_one
Sep 2016
OP
It is a light blue, and if you click it shows about a 1% probability lead for Hillary in Florida
still_one
Sep 2016
#8
Four (4) of you posters need to say which 538: NowCast / Polls Plus / Polls Only.
Bernardo de La Paz
Sep 2016
#5
Florida is very likely. Ohio and North Carolina are possible, but the others are a long shot
still_one
Sep 2016
#14
Coventina
(27,064 posts)1. Hmmm. On my screen it's light pink.
But, he does have Hillary winning the election.
still_one
(92,061 posts)8. It is a light blue, and if you click it shows about a 1% probability lead for Hillary in Florida
Coventina
(27,064 posts)11. OK, it just now changed. Weird!
But, I'm glad!
That's a big win for us!!
still_one
(92,061 posts)13. It is still too close to call, but it is going the right direction
snooper2
(30,151 posts)2. On my screen it is like a Macaroon Cream
jcgoldie
(11,613 posts)3. NC & NV as well on nowcast
I want Ohio back.
unc70
(6,109 posts)4. Starting to show NC as light blue also
I think his polls only model hasn't turned NC blue yet, but the others have turned. It is roughly a 15% swing since Monday.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,966 posts)5. Four (4) of you posters need to say which 538: NowCast / Polls Plus / Polls Only.
jcgoldie is on top of it and gets it.
lamp_shade
(14,816 posts)7. FL, NC, NV are light blue now, but only on the Now-Cast model.
CanonRay
(14,088 posts)6. Wait until the Trump in Cuba story has time to set in.
Florida is gone.
zenabby
(364 posts)12. Here's what I'd like to see happen
and it is not too fantastic..
Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, and maybe Georgia, and then even may be Texas - all go blue!!
still_one
(92,061 posts)14. Florida is very likely. Ohio and North Carolina are possible, but the others are a long shot
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)15. Sanders did well in Florida, organized lots of enthusiasm in groups that usually did not vote.
I may be wrong, but I don't think so. Ds will turn out to vote in historic numbers.
obamanut2012
(26,047 posts)16. I think those of us in SOFL will turn it blue in November
Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade have literally millions of blue voters. We are teh majority here.