Election Predictions- Make Yours Here

[JCMach1]

Then, let's check this thread on Nov. 9.


Yes, yes, work hard to GOTV, don't take things for granted... BIGLY


But hey, we are all political junkies here... let's have some free-form prognostication.


Here are my predictions:

Clinton 52%- Trump 39%, However, she will hover near 50% most of the night, but the electoral blowout will be apparent. The only question is over/under 400 electoral votes. Electoral vote= 361-173

Dems take control of the Senate.
Dems take control of the House by 1-5 seats.

Rubio and McCain are retired from the Senate.
Trump congratulates Clinton, but doesn't concede the election and vows to fight on with his new media company (which will fold before the next Presidential election in 2020).

[TlalocW]

1. I predict

I'll be glued to the computer screen, breaking my diet by eating a ton of tacos in glorious anticipation of welcoming our new taco truck overlords.

TlalocW

[NCTraveler]

2. I'm not sure meaningful predictions can be made at this point.

Something extreme might happen in the last week if Trump knows he is going to lose.

[Dawson Leery]

3. At a 13% margin, she is going to get over 400 EV's.

[AmericanActivist]

7. I was thinking 390 or more but I'll go with over

400. I believe she will get more electoral votes than Pres. Bill Clinton did in '92 and more than Pres. Barack Obama in 2008.

[AmericanActivist]

12. Now I'm thinking 475 EV or higher nm

[AmericanActivist]

15. Today I believe 493 EV or more nm

[AmericanActivist]

16. Today, I say 478 EVs for Clinton/Kaine nm

[AmericanActivist]

17. Today I predict a minimum of 434 EVs for Clinton/Kaine nm

[AmericanActivist]

18. I am upping my ante today. I say 501 EVs for Clinton/Kaine maybe 510 nm

[AmericanActivist]

19. Today I think a minimum of 424 EVs for Clinton/Kaine

http://www.270towin.com/maps/D3B8D

[MFM008]

4. Maggots going to lose

BIGLY.
Nothing specific so I agree with you.

[The Polack MSgt]

5. My guesses

Clinton 51%
Trump 38%
Johnson 6%

Senate- Dems 51 seats

Dems gain 10-12 seats in the house, Reps keep majority

Hillary - 367 ECV

[kevink077]

6. My guess

Clinton wins all Obama 2012 states minus Iowa but wins NC and Arizona.

Dems tie 50/50 in senate giving them narrow control. I really hope it is 51 to insure against a rouge dem (machin?)

GOP will narrowly keep the house by 5-7 seats. Gerrymandering is too tough to overcome right now.

I also predict that Evan McMullen will win Utah.

[saltpoint]

8. Clinton-Kaine buries Trump-Pence,

likely very early in the evening on Nov. 8th.

We hold the Senate seat in Nevada. We flip Wisconsin, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

[kevink077]

9. I think we have a good chance in Illinois too

But maybe you counted that as obvious

[saltpoint]

11. kevink077, no, I just plum forgot

about that Illinois race.

You are absolutely right -- it does look very good for us. Sorry to overlook it.

[AmericanActivist]

13. I would love it if she gets 525 EV or higher because the she would either

tie or break Ronnie Raygun's record for most EVs.

If women and minorities vote this is doable. GOTV!

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I think Hillary will win by 3-4%

I prefer a longer term foundational view as opposed to overreaction to late trends. There will likely be a natural tightening. The third party candidates are receiving bizarre polling percentages that make no sense in historical terms, given the lack of debate exposure and overall spotlight. I suspect most of them will actually vote for one of the two major candidates. Trump probably does have a bit of a Shy Tory factor in his favor, and some of it is being expressed in voters who say they will vote for those third party candidates. The polling includes a very high percentage of supposedly undecided voters for this stage of a race. That's partially why there is more room for a late shift than normal. The good news is that late shifts in general elections don't have nearly the movement of late shifts in primaries.

Hillary's low favorable numbers and the right track/wrong track numbers don't suggest a blow out. I'm looking at this as a handicapper, not based on what I want to happen. The women's margin in recent polling is simply too high and likely not sustainable. If Trump avoids another implosion and runs a more normal campaign over the final two weeks, like the current "drain the swamp" theme, I think some of his reluctant supporters will return.

I haven't studied the senate races closely. I don't think Hillary will win any of the high aspirations states like Arizona, Texas, Utah, South Carolina or others. Too many self-identified conservatives. Most of them will go to Trump by much larger margin than expected.

Hillary needs to run that bus tape as often as possible, as reminder of who Trump really is. I still don't think we've taken enough advantage of it.

[AmericanActivist]

20. Kicking for visibility nm