Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:11 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

Not worried...just a bit annoyed at the 538 2016 presidential forecast

Showing just very slight downticking for Hillary and consequential very slight upticking for Trump --

but what is changing to have these slight variations? What polls would be causing these minor shifts and what's the trend expectation?

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55 replies	Author	Time	Post
Not worried...just a bit annoyed at the 538 2016 presidential forecast (Original post)	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	OP
I think it is a composite of polls and the outlier polls that came out today showing Trump ahead	Txbluedog	Oct 2016	#1
No reason to be concern	beachbumbob	Oct 2016	#2
I'm not particularly concerned	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#7
Thanks - but haven't there been outlier polls all along?	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#3
The actual bookies have it at 82-16.	trof	Oct 2016	#20
Yawn	leftynyc	Oct 2016	#4
...	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#5
You really like to insult low post posters. Yet have no proof they are trolls. Just whining. n/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#28
^^^^^^Fan Club^^^^^	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#29
You seriously have issues. n/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#31
OK there, Fan Club	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#32
I only follow you when you insult newer posters for simple questions. Clockwork. What a great....	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#34
ROFL	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#36
I agree you are. Insulting every new poster. Try to stop it. n/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#39
I'll post how I please, Fan Club	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#42
"creepy, stalky behavior of some posters" describes you attacking low post members. Perfect! n/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#43
Just don't send me anymore PMs	alcibiades_mystery	Oct 2016	#44
I get that once in awhile and it pisses me off. I'm voting Clinton but I'm not a Democrat.	NoGoodNamesLeft	Oct 2016	#37
alcibiades_mystery does it to every low post poster who ever posts something he does not like. n/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#38
A suggestion	PJMcK	Oct 2016	#53
Thank you for the advice. I appreciate it! N/t	ScienceIsGood	Oct 2016	#54
Gee, from 99% to 98%	book_worm	Oct 2016	#6
it goes up... it goes down..... just depends on which polls are in the chute..	getagrip_already	Oct 2016	#8
I already sent in my ballot!	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#11
Really	Polly Hennessey	Oct 2016	#52
The tide goes in, the tide goes out.You can't explain how that happens. nt	tblue37	Oct 2016	#45
Remember that the 538 model is mostly based on state polling.	VMA131Marine	Oct 2016	#9
Its just the noise from the day to day sampling - don't sweat it.	Joe941	Oct 2016	#10
Specifically	jamese777	Oct 2016	#12
Technically, a lot of the uncertainty is because of undecideds	whatthehey	Oct 2016	#13
Another poll of Ohio showing Trump winning doesn't help, although...	Buckeye_Democrat	Oct 2016	#14
Yes, Pennsylvania is the key state	Awsi Dooger	Oct 2016	#17
One day closer	Awsi Dooger	Oct 2016	#15
So for any stat experts out there on DU	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#16
RCP averages show a bump up for HRC (both 2-way and 4-way)	Roland99	Oct 2016	#18
these are very small shifts....	Adrahil	Oct 2016	#19
Changed	semby2	Oct 2016	#22
I just read it now	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#25
Relax	semby2	Oct 2016	#27
I am, too, and worry when I see the slightest downturn.	manicraven	Oct 2016	#40
It's likely because of the reports about the cost of Obamacare going up	NoGoodNamesLeft	Oct 2016	#23
HA HA HA!	semby2	Oct 2016	#24
I saw that...it's just kind of weird that there's a bit more volatility today	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#26
I'm a registered Independent swing voter in a battleground state, this matters to people like me	NoGoodNamesLeft	Oct 2016	#30
She's demonstrated so far that she knows exactly what she's doing	emulatorloo	Oct 2016	#35
I was just watching CNN interview people from North Carolina about Obamacare...	NoGoodNamesLeft	Oct 2016	#48
When I go on a diet, I don't weigh myself every day	emulatorloo	Oct 2016	#33
I check that site way too much. It was killing me when it was close	NightWatcher	Oct 2016	#41
don't get caught up in analyzing line noise	0rganism	Oct 2016	#46
22 blue states & DC give HRC 273 Electors	jamese777	Oct 2016	#47
The lower Hillary is in the polls, the more people will get out there and vote for	applegrove	Oct 2016	#49
The race is far from tight...but the narrative it is close works for democrats	beachbumbob	Oct 2016	#50
You say it so much more eloquently than me.	applegrove	Oct 2016	#56
I know things look good	bmstee01	Oct 2016	#51
Me too!	Farmgirl1961	Oct 2016	#55

Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:12 PM

Txbluedog (1,128 posts)

1. I think it is a composite of polls and the outlier polls that came out today showing Trump ahead

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:14 PM

beachbumbob (9,263 posts)

2. No reason to be concern

Especially minute day to day changes...

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Response to beachbumbob (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:18 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

7. I'm not particularly concerned

just annoyed to see it and to see MSM championing any poll out there that shows Trump ahead (in any swing state).

The numbers had been quite steady (Hillary hit a high of 88%) until the last day or so when Trump crept over the 15% mark. I know...I know...still so very slim...I just don't want his numbers to go up any higher and can't figure out for the life of me where these odd ball stats are coming from.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:15 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

3. Thanks - but haven't there been outlier polls all along?

I so want to see him down in the single digit "impossible to win" range.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 05:23 PM

trof (54,120 posts)

20. The actual bookies have it at 82-16.

This is people who have bet real cash on the outcome.
Some Irish books have already begun to pay off Hillary bettors.
They say it's over before the election.
These are people who make their living off of betting.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:15 PM

leftynyc (26,060 posts)

4. Yawn

Is don the con up to 16% chance of winning? If you REALLY want to freak out, Wang has lowered her chance of winning from 99% to 98%.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:16 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

5. ...

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:25 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

28. You really like to insult low post posters. Yet have no proof they are trolls. Just whining. n/t

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #28)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:27 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

29. ^^^^^^Fan Club^^^^^

It's a little creepy, but whatever.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #29)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:29 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

31. You seriously have issues. n/t

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #31)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:31 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

32. OK there, Fan Club

I'm not the one sending you unsolicited private messages and following you around the board.

Enjoy, though. It's weird, but I've seen this kind of behavior before.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #32)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:33 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

34. I only follow you when you insult newer posters for simple questions. Clockwork. What a great....

way to introduce them to the DU.

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #34)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:34 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

36. ROFL

C-c-c-creepy!

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #36)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:37 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

39. I agree you are. Insulting every new poster. Try to stop it. n/t

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #39)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:40 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

42. I'll post how I please, Fan Club

Regardless of the creepy, stalky behavior of some posters.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #42)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:42 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

43. "creepy, stalky behavior of some posters" describes you attacking low post members. Perfect! n/t

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #43)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:45 PM

alcibiades_mystery (36,437 posts)

44. Just don't send me anymore PMs

Talking about other PMs you received about me!

A true fan!

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #28)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:34 PM

NoGoodNamesLeft (2,056 posts)

37. I get that once in awhile and it pisses me off. I'm voting Clinton but I'm not a Democrat.

Because Trump is so damn disgusting there are many new people who don't usually follow so closely or care as much. I actually used to post here back when Howard Dean was running. I think I got banned both here and on a conservative site. Both places accused me of being with the other party and I'm an Independent moderate, lol. I came back here this election because Trump infuriates me and my family is sick of hearing me rant about his orange ass...so I rant here.

I wish people would stop assuming anyone with a low post is a troll because that's usually not the case.

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Response to NoGoodNamesLeft (Reply #37)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:36 PM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

38. alcibiades_mystery does it to every low post poster who ever posts something he does not like. n/t

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Response to ScienceIsGood (Reply #38)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 09:58 AM

PJMcK (20,232 posts)

53. A suggestion

It's great that you're here and your screen name is terrific as it represents my own point of view.

Here's a suggestion, however. You can use the Ignore feature to block alciblades_mystery's posts so you won't see them. I sure you know that one cannot win an online argument and if someone bugs you, it ruins your experiences on this excellent site.

In any event, keep posting! It's informative to hear more voices.

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Response to PJMcK (Reply #53)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 10:02 AM

ScienceIsGood (314 posts)

54. Thank you for the advice. I appreciate it! N/t

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:16 PM

book_worm (15,951 posts)

6. Gee, from 99% to 98%

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:19 PM

getagrip_already (10,643 posts)

8. it goes up... it goes down..... just depends on which polls are in the chute..

He has a lot of garbage polls in the mix to provide ballast. It slows down the snap/roll the better polls cause.

Not to worry, just vote, and drag all your friends with you.

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:27 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

11. I already sent in my ballot!

n/t

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 09:28 AM

Polly Hennessey (5,628 posts)

52. Really

and for whom did you vote?

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:45 PM

tblue37 (59,403 posts)

45. The tide goes in, the tide goes out.You can't explain how that happens. nt

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:20 PM

VMA131Marine (3,853 posts)

9. Remember that the 538 model is mostly based on state polling.

National polls are used to verify trends. It seems to me that the bulk of the state polls show a closer race than indicated by the national polls and this is causing the current tightening. However, outside of the battleground states, there isn't a lot of good polling data (I don't consider the Survey Monkey and Google Consumer Survey polls to be all that reliable). The battleground states have much closer polling margins than the solid red and blue states and so, since these are getting polled much more often, the forecast is trending towards Trump slightly because there is little to move it the other way.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:21 PM

Joe941 (2,848 posts)

10. Its just the noise from the day to day sampling - don't sweat it.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:29 PM

jamese777 (546 posts)

12. Specifically

The Remington Research Polls in several states looked good for Trump. Remington Research polls for Republicans. Also Monmouth's New Hampshire poll showed Hillary up by 4 when she had been up by more and the Survey Monkey polls in many states showed more moderate leads than earlier.
realclearpolitics' averaging of national polls is also down a point and a new Florida Bloomberg poll has Trump leading by 2.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:31 PM

whatthehey (3,660 posts)

13. Technically, a lot of the uncertainty is because of undecideds

If you look at Obama/Romney polls for this time in 2012, you had 95% or so going for one or the other.

It's averaging more like 85 now. The higher the number of undecideds, or to a bit lesser extent third party supporters who have a high historical tendency to transfer to the two major parties at the end, the more uncertain the victory for the poll leader because they all/most theoretically could break Trump. So look at recent non D/R %age totals.

The other big 538 impact is he models like states to affect like states, so a swing to Trump in, say, SC, also gives him a bit bigger statistical shot in GA.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:36 PM

Buckeye_Democrat (14,715 posts)

14. Another poll of Ohio showing Trump winning doesn't help, although...

... I'm thankful that my state isn't crucial in this election! Ohio has very few Latinos, among other things.

As long as Clinton wins Pennsylvania, which I think is more representative of the country as a whole now, she'll win.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:38 PM

Awsi Dooger (14,565 posts)

17. Yes, Pennsylvania is the key state

Looking good there

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:37 PM

Awsi Dooger (14,565 posts)

15. One day closer

Nothing significant has happened to alter the dynamic of the race. That's a victory.

Besides, in a race that was very close prior to debate one you can't expect either candidate to continue to gain day after day after day. Not logical. It's like a long standing .500 football team trying to win 6 or 8 in a row.

I'm very happy where we are. Late margins in general elections are hellish to reverse, as opposed to primaries which can sway wildly in the closing days since everybody is seeing and prioritizing the same thing.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:38 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

16. So for any stat experts out there on DU

What general predictions do you have in the closing days of the election? Furthermore, does early voting impact the model(s)?

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:39 PM

Roland99 (53,230 posts)

18. RCP averages show a bump up for HRC (both 2-way and 4-way)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:43 PM

Adrahil (13,340 posts)

19. these are very small shifts....

but I do expect a slight tightening over the next two weeks. But don't obsess over a couple points. Hillary has his. We just need to keep the push on.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 05:36 PM

semby2 (246 posts)

22. Changed

It just jumped to 86.1 for Hillary.

And if you're reading this, you're probably obsessing about it a bit too much.

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Response to semby2 (Reply #22)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:18 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

25. I just read it now

and yes...you right...I am probably obsessing about it too much

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #25)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:23 PM

semby2 (246 posts)

27. Relax

We should both try to relax

In truth, the numbers are amazingly good.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #25)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:38 PM

manicraven (901 posts)

40. I am, too, and worry when I see the slightest downturn.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 05:45 PM

NoGoodNamesLeft (2,056 posts)

23. It's likely because of the reports about the cost of Obamacare going up

Hillary needs to give a press conference on the issue and discuss her plans in specifics.

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Response to NoGoodNamesLeft (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 05:57 PM

semby2 (246 posts)

24. HA HA HA!

No. Not only are many of the polls too early for that, the numbers at the moment are 86.1 for Hillary, which is where it was a few days ago. The numbers went up since the OP created this thread.

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Response to semby2 (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:20 PM

Farmgirl1961 (1,463 posts)

26. I saw that...it's just kind of weird that there's a bit more volatility today

As I said, I'm not particularly concerned....more annoyed at it all. But as I read about some new polls that are coming in today, I'm feeling A-okay...but will remain uneasy until the eve of November 8th.

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Response to semby2 (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:27 PM

NoGoodNamesLeft (2,056 posts)

30. I'm a registered Independent swing voter in a battleground state, this matters to people like me

The media reports on the rising costs of Obamacare could cost the election if she doesn't address it. Ignoring the issue and pretending it doesn't matter would be stupid and could put Trump in the oval office. Maybe not like a huge press conference...but with the reporters travelling with her.

The campaign NEEDS to address the issue and run the old commercials about Trump ripping off contractors. THAT will pull away some of the rust belt white men who ARE contractors.

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Response to NoGoodNamesLeft (Reply #30)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:33 PM

emulatorloo (41,919 posts)

35. She's demonstrated so far that she knows exactly what she's doing

Additionally she addressed fixes to Obamacare in the last debate, which received the third highest rating in the history of presidential debates.

For all you and I know she's talking about it on the trail, but too 'boring' for the media to report.

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #35)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 08:03 PM

NoGoodNamesLeft (2,056 posts)

48. I was just watching CNN interview people from North Carolina about Obamacare...

And it's a VERY important issue and some of them have decided to vote for Trump because he is talking about it and promising to do something.

This is an issue Clinton can NOT afford to ignore if she wants to win.

No one wins without swing voting moderates/Independents like myself. I am trying to tell you that to people like me...people Clinton NEEDS to win...this is a MAJOR issue and it would be FOOLISH to ignore it.

I hope she realizes this before it's too late and puts out some kind of statement or something because I do NOT want Trump to win.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:32 PM

emulatorloo (41,919 posts)

33. When I go on a diet, I don't weigh myself every day

As daily weight fluctuations are pretty much meaningless. I weigh once a week that gives a more accurate picture.

Probably a good way to treat daily forecasts.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 06:39 PM

NightWatcher (39,343 posts)

41. I check that site way too much. It was killing me when it was close

I'll take fluctuations around 84-87% with a big fat smile on my face.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:04 PM

0rganism (23,603 posts)

46. don't get caught up in analyzing line noise

that's Nate's job, and if he sees something really interesting he'll point it out in one of his expository articles
538 runs a windowed poll analysis, with weighting dependent on polls-only and now-cast selections.
in addition to any new polls that come in, there are old polls becoming stale and losing their impact on the modeled state of the campaign.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Wed Oct 26, 2016, 07:40 PM

jamese777 (546 posts)

47. 22 blue states & DC give HRC 273 Electors

If Hillary wins these states, she's president:
WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, CO, IL, MN, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, VA, & DC
It is possible she might lose one congressional district in Maine, but note that she wouldn't even need Florida, North Carolina, Nevada or Ohio!

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 12:21 AM

applegrove (113,384 posts)