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Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:23 PM

With so many folks opting for early voting; how how this figure into daily poll projections?

I know that we've had early voting in past elections, but this year seems to be unprecedented. With so many people opting to vote early, how does this information translate into the poll projections?

Thanks!

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Reply With so many folks opting for early voting; how how this figure into daily poll projections? (Original post)
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 OP
Sunny05 Oct 2016 #1
reasonabletexan Oct 2016 #2
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #5
triron Oct 2016 #6
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #7
triron Oct 2016 #9
triron Oct 2016 #8
Bill USA Oct 2016 #12
sunonmars Oct 2016 #3
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #4
Coyotl Oct 2016 #10
Farmgirl1961 Oct 2016 #11

Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:30 PM

1. Good question. And here's a follow-up Q:

Do you mean projections like fivethirtyeight does? Or any news org/web site that averages and graphs trend lines?

Past that I infer you are getting at the numbers "dropping out" (my term) from those projections as early votes are no longer to be projected. And, as I said at the outset: good question! I wonder if any early voting is factored into those projections. If so, I would guess the number and percentage of votes happening early was probably underestimated!

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:31 PM

2. NYT/Upshot has a good analysis

In NC that factors in what can be gleaned from voting history of those who have already voted and modifies its projections accordingly.

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Response to reasonabletexan (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:53 PM

5. So if more dems are voting early and their not in the polling projections

could that artificially drive up tRump's projection numbers? Just trying to make a bit of sense of the slight upward drift toward tRump (at 538).

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:56 PM

6. 538 never makes sense

to me

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Response to triron (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:58 PM

7. Me neither

but they must be getting composite polling information from somewhere to "justify" their polling projections. Just trying to understand it a bit...if possible...

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 03:02 PM

9. I prefer Sam Wang's

Election consortium. He has HRC win at 99% (bayesian probability) or 97% (random drift). Take your pick.
Also take a look at his graphics. Trump pretty much nixed unless something drastic happens.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:58 PM

8. I think early voters are in the projection

just wonder whether they tend to be polled same as other voters.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 03:47 PM

12. I think, by far, the early voters are Dems -- based on fear of monster lines & other forms of voter

suppression which Repubs know they don't have to worry about. Republican districts (in REpublican run states) magically have plenty of machines and polling places, while Democratic districts endure inadequate numbers of polling places and supply of functioning machines.



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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:32 PM

3. the more early vote the better, Clinton ground game will round up the rest, less to do on the 8th.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 02:44 PM

4. I would think that the more that opt for early voting

the better for the dems, but if so why do the 538 projections continue to have a slight uptick for Trump? What's changing in the polls or projections?

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 03:24 PM

10. Confidence level of early voter determination improves.

 

The two parties do not early vote at the same rate, so you cannot do early voting exit polls with accurate results. Polling still has to do weighting with the prediction of who will vote. best case scenario, margin of error drops as more respondents have voted.

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Response to Farmgirl1961 (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 03:34 PM

11. Why in the f--- are those 538 polling projections ticking slightly down for Hillary.

Yes, still plenty high, but is this email crap having a bit of impact?

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