Democrats Net +8 More Likely To Support HRC Following Comey Letter Debacle: CBS

[Fahrenthold451]

Here's how Clinton could lose the election. She does something akin to the Access Hollywood tape that drives people in her camp away from her to vote for Trump. I've been waiting with baited breath to see the first opinion polls after Comeygate. The news is good for Clinton. This "scandal" has been correctly assessed by the voting public. Only 5% of Dems are now less likely to support her whereas 13% are more likely. My guess is that the 5% will come around once more information is revealed about Comey's unprecedented and unsanctioned maneuvering. Hillary gets a net +8. This is not her Waterloo.

There's an excellent article by David Rothschild from Predictwise that cites this concept.

Clinton is far enough up, and there are few enough persuadable voters, that she will need to lose support for Trump to win

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/10/comeyfbi-scandal/

What Comey tried to pull was as close to a unilateral coup d'etat as you are going to see in the modern era. If this doesn't energize left leaners then we are doomed anyway. Early voting looks good across the states that matter and after looking at the CBS numbers, we can officially breathe again.

Rothschild also cites the Dan Rather's George W Bush National Guard story as a historical example. That worked out just fine in the end for Bush. Like Rather, Comey will start facing the immediate and harsh blowback. The difference being that this time Comey deserves it. The Democrats will benefit from a more energized base.

The prediction markets bear this out, just a little normal tightening that you would expect in any presidential race. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/us_presidential_election_live_betting_odds.html

The CBS poll.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

[LisaL]

1. It's not democrats I am worried about.

It's all those un-decided wishy washy voters.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. The undecideds are a very small percentage at this point.

[sunonmars]

3. I still dont believe undecided exist at this point in the game

They are people who end up not bothering to vote or really are one way or another but just dont say it.

[Demsrule86]

8. Have no 'fear'...I highly doubt they will be influenced.nt

[semby2]

4. Not bad

But Republican voters might also be excited, and this can affect House, Senate and local races. IMHO, Comey got exactly what he wanted. He's protecting the Republicans in Congress.

And a small nitpick but the phrase is "bated breath" as in "abated".

[Fahrenthold451]

5. At least they use bated breath in the UK

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/bated-breath.html

[Fahrenthold451]

6. Merchant of Venice

With bated breath and whispering humbleness, Say this;

'Fair sir, you spit on me on Wednesday last;
You spurn'd me such a day; another time
You call'd me dog; and for these courtesies
I'll lend you thus much moneys'?

[DarthDem]

9. K&R to Put This Above the Concerned

I know they really need some good news.

[mountain grammy]

10. And call me crazy or whatever you want to call me

but I don't think he would have pulled this shit if the candidate was male. Just sayin'

[writes3000]

11. Nice!