the bright side from Florida early voting: Hispanic UNLIKELY voters are voting

[geek tragedy]

Having touted the glum news from Florida's early voting, here's the bright side:

1) the percentage of early voters is 13.5% and (a) has been rising and (b) is greater than that since registration typically undercounts Hispanics

2) 50% of the FL Hispanic Democrats and 55% of Hispanic NPA (No Party Affiliation) who have voted are unlikely voters--those who have either never voted or have voted in only 1/3 previous elections.

caveat, of course, is that their numbers would be picked up in polls that still show Trump either tied or ahead. Plus the other not so great numbers from early voting.

But if folks are looking for a silver lining, there it is.

[democrattotheend]

1. Do we have age or nationality statistics on the NPA Hispanics?

I ask because the Latino vote is not as Democratic in Florida as it is elsewhere. Cubans, especially older Cubans, tend to be more Republican than other Latino groups.

[geek tragedy]

2. not sure if the data gets that granular nt

but note that it's Democratic and NPA, not Republican, unlikelies who are voting at this heavy clip.

[DLCWIdem]

11. Never before voted. If older Hispanic they would have voted before.

[jcgoldie]

3. Wouldn't those numbers actually be underrepresented in many polls?

Considering that many polls use likely voter models which weight heavily toward respondents who have voted before, wouldn't these numbers actually be cause for even greater optimism because some of these unlikely voters could be people the pollsters missed?

[geek tragedy]

5. that's why this is cause for optimism.

the larger the % of the electorate that's Hispanic, the better for Clinton

[vadermike]

4. If

NGOs and unlikeliest voters are up a lot that should be helluva good news for us so I don't understand the negativity ! Early voting in NV looking solid sti as well I would imagine even if we lose FL should get NC as Hillary has a larger lead thre weirdly enough

[jberryhill]

6. Shouldn't that be "Hispanic unlikely voters"?

How do you tell if someone is "likely Hispanic" or "unlikely Hispanic"?

[geek tragedy]

7. Fixed! Those tricky words that function as adjectives and adverbs ... nt

[jberryhill]

8. Yeah, my favorites are nouns acting as adjectives

Like, "fallout shelter". Why does fallout need a shelter?

[geek tragedy]

9. because it's in a hard hat area. nt

[jberryhill]

10. You're in good company, though

[DeminPennswoods]

12. they wouldn't pass the LV screen most pollsters use

Most pollsters use some variation of recent voting history/registration to decide who is or is not a "likely voter". My guess is these voters are not being picked up in the LV count because of their sporadic voting record and/or being first time voters. If the poll shows both RV and LV, then they would be there, but usually only the LV horse race numbers are announced.

[geek tragedy]

13. for Florida you'd think competent pollsters would include "have you voted yet"

but maybe not

[Garrett78]

14. Florida is looking better for Dems than it did in 2012...

...at least according to this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/10/31/despite-emails-republicans-still-think-trump-will-lose-heres-why/?utm_term=.196f44e275b8

[geek tragedy]

16. I think Sargent misinterpreted the Times piece

There is greater Hispanic turnout, but it's offset by sharply reduced African-American turnout.

Overall turnout is whiter than at this point in 2012

[sunonmars]

15. The margin coming out of those 3 big Dem counties in FL will be huge.......

[GulfCoast66]

17. New Puerto Rican residents

Are flocking to Florida to escape the island's economy. They have never been able to vote and there has been a drive to register them and get them to the polls.

They may take us over the finish line.

Remember a Latino crowd booed little Marco off the stage in Orlando last week.