in 2012 Gallup committed suicide by tracking. Is ABC/WaPo next?

[molova]

Remember when Gallup used to be the media's favorite Serious Prestigious pollster?

Their decision to come up with a daily tracking poll in 2012 resulted in their political death, as they predicted a Romney victory over Obama.

Gallup was fired by the USA Today, and was embarrassed to the point that they decided not to conduct any polls whatsoever this year.

Keep an eye on the Next Big Infallible Daily Tracking ABC/WaPo poll. The polling industry cannot afford another failure. if Hillary wins, ABC and WaPo go to the poll cemetery along with the LA Times.

[geek tragedy]

1. I'm not following polls, I'm following early vote totals.

To the extent there are any polls to follow, the NY Times/Siena polls using actual state voter files are the ones to follow.

And then compare to 2012.

The race is tightening. Clinton will most likely win with around 279-294 EVs. Harder to get her below that number than above it.

This will be the closest election since 2004.

[MSMITH33156]

2. On the Keepin it 1600 podcast yesterday

they said the ABC tracking poll had Romney up at this point in 2012.

[DeminPennswoods]

3. it's a 4 day rolling average

1 or 2 very good days and/or bad days for the candidates can make for wild swings which is what we've seen from this poll. A week ago Clinton was up 12, now she's down 1. The election is pretty much baked in at this point, imho. For ex, in my state, the current F&M poll shows 94% of both camps certain to vote for their candidate.