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Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:46 AM

 

538: The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

Question: why do people point to 538 so much? His track record is not that great! He gave trump just 5% in the primaries. He gave the Cubs 15% chance of winning (see article below). Now I think he is wrong about this election (again)! - I say Clinton wins with 350+ electoral votes and has over 95% chance of winning!!! Honestly Nate Silver doesn't seem to have a clue anymore - do you see these wild swings in his predictions? What good is it?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/

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Reply 538: The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does (Original post)
Joe941 Nov 2016 OP
Hortensis Nov 2016 #1
WhollyHeretic Nov 2016 #2
Joe941 Nov 2016 #5
WhollyHeretic Nov 2016 #8
Joe941 Nov 2016 #10
NightWatcher Nov 2016 #3
Joe941 Nov 2016 #4
Adrahil Nov 2016 #6
Docreed2003 Nov 2016 #7
Renew Deal Nov 2016 #9

Response to Joe941 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:48 AM

1. Clinton 335. :)

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Response to Joe941 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:51 AM

2. When the Cubs were down 3 games to 1 in a best of 7 series they did have a low chance of winning

Having a low chance of something happening does not mean it won't happen.

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Response to WhollyHeretic (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:16 AM

5. I hope there is NO chance Trump wins.

 

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Response to Joe941 (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:28 AM

8. I don't think he will but even that he has a chance to scares the hell out of me

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Response to WhollyHeretic (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 09:10 AM

10. agreed.

 

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Response to Joe941 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 07:54 AM

3. Baseball ain't Politics.

The Cubs were unlikely to win because their offense hadn't shown up yet and they were down in a best of seven format. The Cubs figured out the pitching and came to life.

Trump is down because he's a dick and his path to victory goes through places that he can't win.

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Response to NightWatcher (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:02 AM

4. He gave trump 5% is primaries...

 

My point is don't trust 538 predictions - he has a bad record. We need to GOTV and stop relying on polls with questionable accuracy. Nov 8 poll is the only one that matters!

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Response to Joe941 (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:24 AM

6. That's disingenuous.

 

His estimation of Trump's chances in the primaries was based on his gut feel, not a statistical model. He even wrote a long post on how he let his emotional reaction overwhelm what the data was saying.

Like any prognosticator, he gets it wrong sometimes, but his record is well over 90%, even in the primaries. I'd call that a pretty GOOD record.

Also, I hope is prediction is ACCURATE, since he currently predicts HRC is likely to win (based on probabilities).

I get frustrated by folks who want to dismiss someone simply because they are not telling you what you want to hear. Look at the data.

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Response to Joe941 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:27 AM

7. Eh...didn't 538 sell out to ESPN??!

Sports doesn't equate to politics....that being said, Go Cubs!!!!

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Response to Joe941 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:37 AM

9. Being down 3-1 is very hard to come back from.

The Cubs chance was probably closer to 50-50 for game 7 compared to game 5

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