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Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:36 PM

 

I personally think that Hillary is still up 7-10

Based on the following factors:

1: Polls consistently undersample people of color - given the massive margins Trump is losing POC by, this is significant.
2: Many GOP women, or women married to GOP men, are unwilling to openly express support for Clinton with the man in earshot. Even if it works in a "Press 1 for Hillary, press 2 for Trump" fashion, the anxiety is still there.
3: Trump's ground game and organization has been so bad that we could see up to 1-2% of voters show up at the polls and get turned away because the campaign didn't get them to register, however, they will still show up in likely voter screens. In contrast, Hillary's GOTV operation may squeeze an extra 1-2% from voters not considered "likely".
4: The math doesn't add up. How is Trump underperforming Romney in every group aside from no college whites and yet appears to be overperforming him nationally? A lot of these polls have to be predicting absolutely historic white male turnout and margins for this to work (think 2004 demos with 75-80% white males for Trump)

Just remember that Obama overperformed polling averages by about 3 points in 2012.

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply I personally think that Hillary is still up 7-10 (Original post)
forjusticethunders Nov 2016 OP
Joe941 Nov 2016 #1
piechartking Nov 2016 #2
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #3
Hokie Nov 2016 #4
Garrett78 Nov 2016 #5
forjusticethunders Nov 2016 #6
Garrett78 Nov 2016 #9
stopbush Nov 2016 #8
DemonGoddess Nov 2016 #10
Brainstormy Nov 2016 #11
forjusticethunders Nov 2016 #13
rock Nov 2016 #12
Starry Messenger Nov 2016 #14
Chasing Dreams Nov 2016 #16
LineLineReply
Dec 1969 #

Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:37 PM

1. I personally think she is up a minimum of 10%.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:38 PM

2. She does appear to be overperforming polls

In NC, FL, OH and NV.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:39 PM

3. Hard to argue with any of your points...

Early voting in FL and NC seem to be supportive of this hypothesis.

I love the sentiment. I want 60% of pop vote and 350 EV. I'm greedy.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:49 PM

4. If Hillary gets 60% of the popular vote ..

She will top 400 EV. That would be a blowout.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 03:56 PM

5. Also, the "3rd" party candidates never do as well as polling suggests they might.

And if Trump's ceiling really is right around 40, then most of those "3rd" party folks are either going to not vote at all or they're going to vote for Clinton.

What blows me away is that there people who are supposedly still "undecided." How the f**k can a person still be undecided? Between Clinton and Stein maybe. Or between Trump and Johnson. But between Clinton and Trump?!?

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:00 PM

6. Depends.

 

Most of the Stein voters have come home. The Johnson voters are also melting away, though how many of them vote Hillary? If Weld can shift a Senate seat or two, then he'll be a hero.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:22 PM

9. I suspect most Johnson supporters are as clueless as he is.

Some of them will no doubt vote for Clinton without realizing that right wing libertarians (as opposed to Chomsky libertarians) are really just anti-government extremists who happen to not take extremist positions on some social issues.

Johnson's global warming comment (about how the sun will one day engulf Earth anyway) might be my favorite of this entire campaign.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:22 PM

8. The fact that the MSM is heavily trumpeting the "polls are tightening" BS

based on outliers is your first clue that Hillary is doing just fine right now.

Their Comeygate gambit failed, and they've run out of time to effect the election. All the trends and measures are predicting a landslide victory and a tsunami of a blue wave.

The media loves their fake horserace, and they will ride it into Tuesday morning. They will then trip over each pivoting as quickly as they can to the reality of Hillary's victory, which they will try to downplay as not being a mandate, etc.

I've stopped watching the news. It's 95% bullshit. They think we're all stupid.

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Response to stopbush (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:25 PM

10. ^^^This!!!

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:44 PM

11. Not worried about Hillary.

worried about the Senate.

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Response to Brainstormy (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:54 PM

13. Senate is close but a 7 point Hillary win should swing it.

 

Remember, we need 50, not 51, with Kaine as the tiebreaker.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 04:48 PM

12. ditto

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Response to forjusticethunders (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:36 PM

16. Agree 100%. Can you say CLINTON LANDSLIDE!?

And nothing I've seen since the Comey Hurricane suggests otherwise. Look at the real turnout data from Nevada, Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Ipsos +8 pretty close to what will happen:

Clinton 50
Asshole 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2
Others 1

Hillary 350+ EVs
52 D Senate seats
Within 15 of House majority

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