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Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:00 PM

Ipsos State polls are out NH +6, NV +12, WI +9, CO +8, FL Tie, PA +3, VA +6, OH Tie,

NC -2, MI +2

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

As expected, these polls looking good to us laymen, Nate lowered her odds by 0.5%. Lol. I take that back, increased by 0.5% - there was an error on his site?

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Reply Ipsos State polls are out NH +6, NV +12, WI +9, CO +8, FL Tie, PA +3, VA +6, OH Tie, (Original post)
Dem2 Nov 2016 OP
jcgoldie Nov 2016 #1
Zynx Nov 2016 #2
forest444 Nov 2016 #3
Divine Discontent Nov 2016 #4
triron Nov 2016 #6
RandySF Nov 2016 #7
Barack_America Nov 2016 #11
warpigs72 Nov 2016 #8
Dem2 Nov 2016 #10
renate Nov 2016 #9

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:01 PM

1. Sweet!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:01 PM

2. Not perfect, but I'll take it!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:02 PM

3. Bring'er home now.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:02 PM

4. excellent! so all are winnable (meaning FL & OH being tied) no matter what other polls might say

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:10 PM

6. Ipsos state polls have a great variation in sample size historically

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:10 PM

7. Nevada is high but the rest look right.

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Response to RandySF (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:24 PM

11. MI is more than +2.

Believe me.

I think he may be factoring that POS Mitchell/FOX2 that failed so spectacularly during the primaries.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:14 PM

8. Trend Lines

That's because the trend lines are still +1.5% for Trump. So for NC, Hillary is +1.6% on average, which includes the bogus 7% Survey USA poll. This gets net down to even after the trend line adjustment. So that one bogus poll plays a large roll in this. Once the polls from the phony email scandal gets pushed back the trend lines will normalize and the results will be more in line with other poll aggregators.

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Response to warpigs72 (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:23 PM

10. Yes, today may end up being the 1st flat day in many days

This could start bending that tangent/trendline thing and let us breath a tiny bit.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 08:20 PM

9. it's weird... even with these awesome poll numbers I'm still so nervous

I'd sure rather be us than them, but I want to see him at about 25%, not anywhere near close. I just don't get it... how can someone like him be within shouting distance of the Oval Office? I'm so sad and upset that so damn many people in this country are proud to be voting for him. And I'm worried about the Russians being able to hack the vote. The vote-switching that's been reported doesn't worry me quite so much--it's what goes on in the depths of those voting machines that scares me, and in a close election they could possibly get away with it.

I know I'm being silly, but oh my gosh I can't wait for this to be over and done with.

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