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Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:13 PM

5 A-rated National polls just posted H+1, +2, +4, +5, +8



Edit - the dipshit at 538 keypunched wrong - numbers fixed. Yes, they put in that +8 Ipsos poll that I posted yesterday.

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply 5 A-rated National polls just posted H+1, +2, +4, +5, +8 (Original post)
Dem2 Nov 2016 OP
Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2016 #1
Chasing Dreams Nov 2016 #2
kstewart33 Nov 2016 #3
regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #4
LAS14 Nov 2016 #5
Dem2 Nov 2016 #6
Charles Bukowski Nov 2016 #7

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:17 PM

1. Excellent!

If the margins are "weighted" by the number of LV's, it's an average of over 4%.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:19 PM

2. IMO all of these polls understate Hillary's vote, especially in the Hispanic community

As I said last night, look at the real turnout data from Nevada, Florida, Texas, and Arizona. My prediction is that the LANDSLIDE will happen:

Clinton 50
Asshole 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2
Others 1

Hillary 350+ EVs
52 D Senate seats
Within 15 of House majority

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:22 PM

3. The polls should be averaged which equals a 3.6 point lead.

I've read several times in several places that the polls should be averaged for the most accurate result especially when the range is large and it is (1 to 7 points).

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:23 PM

4. Uh…TWO Ipsos polls?

The +7 appears to be yesterday's version. Today's release seems to be back to +5 (although the margin is, bizarrely, shown as +4 in the chart, 44-39=5).

Drop the first Ipsos and correct the second one…still a good set of results!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:24 PM

5. The two Ipsos polls have 2 different date ranges.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:32 PM

6. FIXED!!!

538 has keypunch issues. Also, that Ipsos +8 poll I posted yesterday was finally just added - explains 2 Ipsos polls.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:52 PM

7. There's still a bit of Comey residue in these polls

 

yet HRC leads in all of them.

Obama for the most part outperformed the polls four years ago. I suspect HRC will do the same.

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