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Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:03 PM

 

Which state do you think polls will get most wrong?

And why?

40 replies, 1812 views

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Reply Which state do you think polls will get most wrong? (Original post)
molova Nov 2016 OP
idziak4ever1234 Nov 2016 #1
Dawson Leery Nov 2016 #13
RandySF Nov 2016 #2
Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2016 #3
Kber Nov 2016 #4
molova Nov 2016 #6
BumRushDaShow Nov 2016 #7
Xipe Totec Nov 2016 #5
4139 Nov 2016 #8
unblock Nov 2016 #9
Drunken Irishman Nov 2016 #11
aaaaaa5a Nov 2016 #28
bluegopher Nov 2016 #12
mcar Nov 2016 #14
Wounded Bear Nov 2016 #15
shopgirl Nov 2016 #20
Lindalouuu Nov 2016 #30
mahina Nov 2016 #31
Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #16
Sancho Nov 2016 #19
GulfCoast66 Nov 2016 #34
NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #22
mahina Nov 2016 #33
Garrett78 Nov 2016 #36
Awsi Dooger Nov 2016 #23
Old Terp Nov 2016 #24
Grey Lemercier Nov 2016 #25
greymattermom Nov 2016 #32
NightWatcher Nov 2016 #26
aaaaaa5a Nov 2016 #27
geek tragedy Nov 2016 #35
musicblind Nov 2016 #37
Botany Nov 2016 #38
BluegrassDem Nov 2016 #39
lanlady Nov 2016 #40
LineLineReply
Dec 1969 #

Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:05 PM

1. I think New Hampshire is not really that close and Hillary will win it

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Response to idziak4ever1234 (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:12 PM

13. +1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:05 PM

2. TX

Won't go blue but it'll be close.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:05 PM

3. I hope it's Ohio.

I think Clinton's better "ground game" might help. Time will tell.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:07 PM

4. Me too!

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:08 PM

6. I'm going with Nevada

 

Many Hispanics, hard to poll, good early vote numbers for us.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:08 PM

7. Exactly my thought too

Although they seem to keep hedging on NV and FL and I really think they are underestimating the early voting (and who is voting during early voting).

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:07 PM

5. Texas

Because Texan women have had enough of the Cheeto. And Latinos. And African Americans, and just about every voter class that does not wear a white hood to their club meetings.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:08 PM

8. Maryland....

RCP average HRC +32.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_trump_vs_clinton-5859.html



Have to take the under on that over and under

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:08 PM

9. alaska

not sure we'll win it but i think we'll do shockingly well.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:10 PM

11. Nevada...

They seem to always under-poll support. They had Obama winning it in 2012 3% and he won it by 7%. In 2008, they had Obama winning by 6.5 and he won it by 12.5. In 2010, they had Angle beating Reid by 2.7% and he won the state by 5.6%.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:40 PM

28. +1 nt

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:11 PM

12. You didn't say swing state

so I'll say Minnesota. It shows up as light blue sometimes, but I honestly think Trump will get shellacked here, by 8-10 at least.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:16 PM

14. Florida

I hope. Underreporting hispanic and women voters. I want Rubio out.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:22 PM

15. New Hampshire for me..

the media has been pushing the "closing" meme, but I don't buy it. Too well educated to really go with Trump.

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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:56 PM

20. I wish I could agree with you

I live in Massachusetts, 5 minutes from the New Hampshire border. Not only are there many "educated" people in New Hampshire who will vote for Trump, but so will many in Massachusetts. I work in a law office, and I would estimate that 80% of the people in my office are voting for Trump. I know people think of Massachusetts as a liberal utopia, but there are plenty of crazy tea party types here too.

I'm hoping that Florida will be the surprise. In fact, I hope that it's not even close. If Florida goes for Clinton in a big way, I think that will be a sign that we're looking at a possible landslide. I don't want Trump to just lose. I want him to be humiliated (although he's too much of a narcissist to really feel shame). As much as I wanted McCain and Romney to lose, I didn't feel like this. Trump's coarseness, his disdain of anyone not like him, not to mention his treatment of women repulse me in a way I never could have predicted.

Bottom line is that roughly 50% of this country has lost their minds. Such a crying shame.

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Response to shopgirl (Reply #20)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:04 PM

30. I hope you're right about Fl

And I hope trump gets totally and bigly dumped. I want Florida to go blue so badly. I don't have anyone to talk to about this. It seems that everyone around me is that percentage who has lost their good sense and common decency and is voting for orange boy. I'm going to lose mind.

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Response to shopgirl (Reply #20)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:12 PM

31. Welcome to DU!

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:39 PM

16. Any state with a high hispanic population could be a surprise


Hispanics are pissed this election cycle, coming out in record numbers and they tend to be way under polled. So Nevada is probably in the bag and Texas, Arizona could surprise. Also, surprisingly Florida and Georgia have a lot of Hispanics.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:55 PM

19. Florida

Ground game, Hispanics, repub GRITS (girls raised in the South) crossing over and voting for Hillary, Cubans jumps out of the GOP rut...Florida could go blue!

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Response to Sancho (Reply #19)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:26 PM

34. We have been blue

The last 2 cycles and the demographics are even better now. Not enough angry white guys left.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:14 PM

22. Texas

 

Almost 30% of eligible voters are Latinos. The turnout is higher than ever among Latinos with record numbers of first time voters. They used to lean kinda conservative...but they are NOT going to lean Trump's way. Lots of non-Latinos have Latino family members...husbands, wives, in laws, children, grandchildren, etc.

I think Trump and Republicans are going to get spanked hard in Texas and nationally, I don't think they even see it coming.

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Response to NoGoodNamesLeft (Reply #22)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:13 PM

33. That's the way I see it too.

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Response to NoGoodNamesLeft (Reply #22)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:35 PM

36. For her to win Texas (much less win it big), the polls would have to be *WAY* off.

I hope you're right, but I don't think Texas is quite ready to go blue.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:18 PM

23. Alaska

I'll always predict Alaska polls to sharply overstate Democratic support. It's been going on since I started betting on politics in 1996.

The model has been terrible and since it's not a priority state with many polling companies working to get it right, the model remains terrible.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:29 PM

24. I would go with Alaska too.

Large Alaska and Native American population and lots of small businesses. I think Trump stiffing people will play with them. Global warming is a real thing the further north you go.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:35 PM

25. Georgia

 

Large Latino population now. Might go Blue!!!

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Reply #25)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:12 PM

32. Lots of early voting too

the Dunwoody library ran out of I voted stickers.

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Response to molova (Original post)


Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 09:39 PM

27. Easy. Nevada. They get this state wrong all the time.

The Hispanic vote in NV. is always undercounted.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:27 PM

35. Nevada, coz it it ain't close nt

 

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Response to molova (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 10:37 PM

37. Either Georgia or Arizona

in a surprise squeaker.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:48 AM

38. OHIO

the early voting is strong and pro HRC

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Response to molova (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:58 AM

39. Nevada...it was close in the polls in 2012, but Obama won easily

 

I remember the shock when they called Nevada right after the polls closed in 2012. Before then, most polls had it tied or Romney winning it.

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Response to molova (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 07:05 AM

40. My guess is Florida

Pollsters undercount Latinos (or so I've heard) and the Latino vote will put Hillary over the top. Fingers crossed anyway!

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