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Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:47 PM

Hillary's magic EV number is 195.

The magic number is 195.

That is the number of Electoral Votes that Hillary Clinton needs by 10:00pm Eastern (7:00pm Pacific) on Tuesday night to guarantee victory.

How? Well, with 270 EV total needed, Hillary Clinton's West Coast "blue wall" will be activated at 11:00pm Eastern (8:00pm Pacific) when the polls close out here in the west.

She has a 99.5% chance of winning all 4 main Western states: California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii.

California, where she is up by 24 points, is worth 55 EV.

Washington, where she is up by 14 points, is worth 12 EV.
Oregon, where she is up by 10 points, is worth 7 EV.
Hawaii, where she is up by 22 points, is worth 4 EV.

That is a total of 78 EV.

78 + 195 = 273.

I added in a 3 EV cushion.


Thus, again, once Hillary reaches 195 EV by 10:00pm Eastern on Tuesday night, the election is over. The west coast "blue wall" will come in like a tidal wave at 11:00pm Eastern.

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:51 PM

2. We have one nut I think in Washington that says he won't vote for her

no matter what.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:53 PM

3. Yeah, that's why I added in a 3 EV cushion, for those idiots. nt

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Response to 4lbs (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:56 PM

6. I kind of guessed that nt

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 04:57 PM

7. She starts with 97 immediately and without question

CT 7
DC 3
DE 3
MA 11
MD 10
NJ 14
NY 29
RI 4
VA 13
VT 3

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:08 PM

8. California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii is 99.9999999999999%

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:14 PM

9. LOL. I wanted to give orange twit a 0.5% chance. nt

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:18 PM

10. Don't count on "by 10:00 P.M. Eastern" unless it's a real blowout…

While your electoral math is correct, many large, crucial eastern states take a long time to deliver final results, especially in close races. If the vote is tight enough, I could easily see FL, NC, and even PA not being called until after the west coast has reported. Also, keep in mind that crucial swing states include CO (Mountain Time) and Nevada, where polls close at the same time as the west coast.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:21 PM

11. True. However, in 2012, many of the states' results were in by 10:00pm Eastern and I did the math

back then too. I knew once Obama reached 195 at that time, the election was over. They just didn't formalize it until later.

Same thing in 2008. Obama reached 195 by then, and only the last 80 EV total were to be calculated. Obama easily had 270 by 11:00pm Eastern in 2008.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:25 PM

12. except that for states with early voting.....

Those votes will be counted quickly. Elections have been called with far less than 70% of the vote in, and some states will be over 50% ev.

Florida and NC could come quickly.

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 05:36 PM

13. dKos at 319-219 now, 90% probability Hillary wins.

 

This has hardly budged for quite a while now, was 323 before Comey went rogue

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Response to 4lbs (Original post)

Sat Nov 5, 2016, 06:37 PM

14. How interesting. A family member predicted over

a month ago that they would announce Hillary won before we get to the Mountain Time zone. In other words, exactly what you are saying, by the time the polls close on the East coast she will have already won.

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