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Sun Nov 6, 2016, 09:41 AM

 

538 has what looks like a best case scenario map for Trump up and Clinton still wins 65-35.

If you look at his map, he has NV, NC, NH, and FL all leaning Trump. ????? Does he really think Trump is going to win all those?

John Ralston says NV is most likely out of Trump's reach with Clark County firewall numbers.

It seems like the Clinton campaign feels very good about NC and FL.

We should still have a very good shot at NH.



Nate Silver??????????.......

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Reply 538 has what looks like a best case scenario map for Trump up and Clinton still wins 65-35. (Original post)
RBInMaine Nov 2016 OP
Cicada Nov 2016 #1
RBInMaine Nov 2016 #2

Response to RBInMaine (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 10:01 AM

1. Nate is unskewing the state polls, maybe dangerous

Nate is "adjusting" a Clinton up 3 state poll to Trump plus 1, say, because a more recent national poll shows Trump gaining support. He says data shows this leads to a more accurate prediction of the state result. Nate Cohn says Silver is double counting the change whatever that means.

So Silver has same National lead as the others but he has "adjusted" the state polls toward Trump. This changes the electoral college count compared to others.

Maybe we should average the aggregators.

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Response to Cicada (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 10:18 AM

2. Thanks.

 

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