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Sun Nov 6, 2016, 06:35 PM

How To Survive The Onslaught Of Final Polls

Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post

The end of the election cycle always coincides with a massive batch of poll releases. Most pollsters want to get their final measures out and capitalize on peak interest in polling numbers before Election Day.

That means we’ll be swimming in data on Monday.


Look at the polling aggregates.

Perhaps the most important key to keeping your sanity with all the polls coming in is to not follow every single poll and every little bounce in the numbers. Polling aggregates are your friend.

I don’t say that to minimize pollsters’ hard work ― many of them do high-quality surveys and deserve credit for that. But when there’s an overwhelming amount of polling data coming at you, the best way to deal with it is to let someone else deal with it. If you’re trying to keep up with multiple 50-state polls on top of the dozens of other polls released each day, you’re going to have a bad time.

So pick your aggregator. HuffPost Pollster carefully curates the polls we put into our aggregate, making sure they release all the information we need to establish that they’re making a credible attempt to measure voters’ opinions. And, as with the USC/LA Times poll, we’ll also make sure the way polls ask the questions are comparable.

Our aggregate calculation works to minimize the effects of outlier polls and reflect the trend of the polling. The model tries to find the most likely true value of opinion within a bunch of polls that say different things.



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Reply How To Survive The Onslaught Of Final Polls (Original post)
Dem2 Nov 2016 OP
regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #1
Dem2 Nov 2016 #2

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 06:58 PM

1. But WILL there be "a massive batch of poll releases?"

PPP, for one, has said their most recent state poll release (Thursday-Friday?) would be their last of the cycle. Today's national NBC/WSJ is, likewise, their last.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 07:01 PM

2. I guess we'll find out

I wish I knew what was coming out, today has been a real sleeper.

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