2016 Postmortem

Dem2

(8,168 posts) Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:20 AM Nov 2016

Before anybody freaks out about the new Remington (R-leaning) state polls put up on 538

All but one have the same lead or better than the previous version of this poll out Oct 30.

The one that is worse by 1 point is in Virginia, not an iffy state.

In addition, the polling dates are a few days old: Nov 1-2.

Thus these actually improved Hillary's odds by 0.8% and turned Nevada slightly blue on 538 (50.1%).

10 replies

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Before anybody freaks out about the new Remington (R-leaning) state polls put up on 538 (Original Post) Dem2 Nov 2016 OP

Cool Blue. Ellipsis Nov 2016 #1

Look at you ...nipping panic in the bud. LOL TrekLuver Nov 2016 #2

The Comey announcement today will NOT be factored into any polls before election day still_one Nov 2016 #3

I know, so any improvement we see is good at this point Dem2 Nov 2016 #4

you are right still_one Nov 2016 #6

Nate Silver will turn NC and Florida blue sometime tomorrow Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #5

I hope you are right. My call banking into North Carolina and Florida was very positive still_one Nov 2016 #7

My call banking into North Carolina and Florida was very positive. LenaBaby61 Nov 2016 #8

Same here, and surprisingly the ones who identified themselves as military to me had already voted, still_one Nov 2016 #9

I doubt he will adjust his model. Egnever Nov 2016 #10

Ellipsis

(9,124 posts)

1. Cool Blue.

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:22 AM

Nov 2016

Texas need go Blue.

TrekLuver

(2,573 posts)

2. Look at you ...nipping panic in the bud. LOL

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:25 AM

Nov 2016

still_one

(92,130 posts)

3. The Comey announcement today will NOT be factored into any polls before election day

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:25 AM

Nov 2016

so any bump we get from it we will not know until the election takes place

I have nothing but disdain for the FBI, and what Comey did a week ago

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

4. I know, so any improvement we see is good at this point

Reply to still_one (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:29 AM

Nov 2016

Especially coming from a R-leaning shit pollster like Remington.

still_one

(92,130 posts)

6. you are right

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:32 AM

Nov 2016

Quixote1818

(28,928 posts)

5. Nate Silver will turn NC and Florida blue sometime tomorrow

Reply to Dem2 (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:31 AM

Nov 2016

He will find a way to adjust his model because all signs are pointing to those states going blue and he I am sure wants a perfect record.

still_one

(92,130 posts)

7. I hope you are right. My call banking into North Carolina and Florida was very positive

Reply to Quixote1818 (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:34 AM

Nov 2016

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)

8. My call banking into North Carolina and Florida was very positive.

Reply to still_one (Reply #7)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:43 AM

Nov 2016

Mine was too, and that was DURING the height of the release of the 1st Comey letter. People (Democrats) I found were ANGRY at Comey and the Rethugs and that many who were going to vote anyway really wanted to vote.

I had to stop phone-banking last Friday because I had to have dental/oral surgery.

still_one

(92,130 posts)

9. Same here, and surprisingly the ones who identified themselves as military to me had already voted,

Reply to LenaBaby61 (Reply #8)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:53 AM

Nov 2016

and were Hilary all the way.

Very enthusiastic.

Yuk on the oral surgery. I hope things are healing well for you

TWO THUMBS UP FOR YOU GOOD WORK IN GOTV!!!

Egnever

(21,506 posts)

10. I doubt he will adjust his model.

Reply to Quixote1818 (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:55 AM

Nov 2016

If he does at this point I think he will be shunned forever. He has to sink or swim with it.

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