HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes
Democrats stand a strong chance of taking control of the Senate as well.
11/07/2016 06:51 pm ET
The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.
Clintons win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that shell garner 323 electoral votes to Trumps 215.
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Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic. New Hampshire polls have wavered recently, but the HuffPost model still predicts those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. And Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. Its the closest in the race, according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clintons ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― shell get 341 electoral votes.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94