2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEichenwald: The Myths Democrats Swallowed that Cost Them the Presidential Election
This is an excellent read. Recommend whole thing at link, because he lays it out very clearly and at length. He endured death threats against himself and his family to bring us the truth over and over.
www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044
The Myths Democrats Swallowed that Cost Them the Presidential Election
On Friday, I almost assaulted a fan of my work. I was in the Philadelphia International Airport, and a man who recognized me from one of my appearances on a television news show approached. He thanked me for the investigative reporting I had done about Donald Trump before the election, expressed his outrage that the Republican nominee had won and then told me quite gruffly, Get back to work. Something about his arrogance struck me, so I asked, Who did you vote for?
He replied, Well, Stein, but I interrupted him and said, Youre lucky its illegal for me to punch you in the face. Then, after telling him to have sex with himselfbut with a much cruder termI turned and walked away.
A certain kind of liberal makes me sick. These people traffic in false equivalencies, always pretending that both nominees are the same, justifying their apathy and not voting or preening about their narcissistic purity as they cast their ballot for a person they know cannot win. I have no problem with anyone who voted for Trump, because they wanted a Trump presidency. I have an enormous problem with anyone who voted for Trump or Stein or Johnsonor who didnt vote at alland who now expresses horror about the outcome of this election. If you dont like the consequences of your own actions, shut the hell up.
Let me explain this as clearly as I can:.... >snip<
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)because they "didn't like" Hillary.
And those whining that Bernie didn't get a fair shake. Bullshit!!
As the author says, those people who believe their egos are more important than winning this election can "go have sex with themselves" only in cruder terms.
Go start your own 3rd Party and get out of ours.
(Gosh! I have been holding this in for a week and was too busy being depressed. Now I'm damned angry!)
Feeling the Bern
(3,839 posts)I remember being told in no uncertain terms by her supporters that the Democrats didn't need us or didn't want us.
What should we do then? We won't vote Trump, HRC and her supporters told us to kiss off. . .please explain. And do me a favor. . .don't give me your anger. I voted Clinton by voting against Trump, but would rather have had Bernie.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)mcar
(42,278 posts)Just pretenders
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Pushed so much of that crap it was sick. One fucked up his marriage a while with the hatred. Strange stuff.
mcar
(42,278 posts)of this good woman.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)And, my post specifically referred to those who didn't vote/stayed home because of ....... their ego.
This is a message board, (and a Democratic message board) and I'll express my anger as I please.
What should you do then??? Did you read the article? He expressed, (and I agreed) about what you should do.
You voted Clinton "by voting against Trump"?? Is that code for "I voted third party?? If that's the case, you essentially voted FOR TRUMP.
If that is the case, how dare you lecture to me!
Feeling the Bern
(3,839 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)pnwmom
(108,955 posts)He himself saw a 2-foot thick pile of opposition research that the RNC had prepared, ready to use if Bernie were the nominee. They must have been licking their chops.
Here are a few tastes of what was in store for Sanders, straight out of the Republican playbook: He thinks rape is A-OK. In 1972, when he was 31, Sanders wrote a fictitious essay in which he described a woman enjoying being raped by three men. Yes, there is an explanation for ita long, complicated one, just like the one that would make clear why the Clinton emails story was nonsense. And we all know how well that worked out.
Then theres the fact that Sanders was on unemployment until his mid-30s, and that he stole electricity from a neighbor after failing to pay his bills, and that he co-sponsored a bill to ship Vermonts nuclear waste to a poor Hispanic community in Texas, where it could be dumped. You can just see the words environmental racist on Republican billboards. And if you cant, I already did. They were in the Republican opposition research book as a proposal on how to frame the nuclear waste issue.
Also on the list: Sanders violated campaign finance laws, criticized Clinton for supporting the 1994 crime bill that he voted for, and he voted against the Amber Alert system. His pitch for universal health care would have been used against him too, since it was tried in his home state of Vermont and collapsed due to excessive costs. Worst of all, the Republicans also had video of Sanders at a 1985 rally thrown by the leftist Sandinista government in Nicaragua where half a million people chanted, Here, there, everywhere/the Yankee will die, while President Daniel Ortega condemned state terrorism by America. Sanders said, on camera, supporting the Sandinistas was patriotic.
And he voted AGAINST the Amber Alert system (yes, he had reasons, but who cares?) and on and on and on.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)NBachers
(17,081 posts)" On the other hand, almost 5 million Obama voters either stayed home or cast their votes for someone else. More than twice as many millennialsa group heavily invested in the Sanders was cheated out of the nomination fantasyvoted third-party. The laughably unqualified Jill Stein of the Green Party got 1.3 million votes; those voters almost certainly opposed Trump; if just the Stein voters in Michigan had cast their ballot for Clinton, she probably would have won the state. And there is no telling how many disaffected Sanders voters cast their ballot for Trump.
Of course, there will still be those voters who snarl, She didnt earn my vote, as if somehow their narcissism should override all other considerations in the election. That, however, is not what an election is about. Voters are charged with choosing the best person to lead the country, not the one who appeals the most to their egos.
If you voted for Trump because you supported him, congratulations on your candidates victory. But if you didnt vote for the only person who could defeat him and are now protesting a Trump presidency, may I suggest you shut up and go home. Adults now need to start fixing the damage you have done." Bold added by me.
sheshe2
(83,654 posts)The stupidity breaks my heart.
Good to see you again, NBachers. I missed you.
NBachers
(17,081 posts)These are times when our friendships and alliances really count.
sheshe2
(83,654 posts)My email, the only one I have did not link to my user name. A second mail was answered by EarlG. He got me back on DU.
I am glad to be here.
NBachers
(17,081 posts)I'm glad to be back. I tried wading through the dreck that was Facebook DU, but I just couldn't put up with it. Filled with a feeding-frenzy of vile hate and gloating Trump and Sanders cultists.
Onward!
Polly Hennessey
(6,787 posts)My email did not link to my user name. EarlG fixed me up. Happy now.
Guilded Lilly
(5,591 posts)When I emailed them.
Very thankful.
sheshe2
(83,654 posts)Read earlier.
Breaks my heart some are so stupid and left us with trump and bannon.
I see war in our near future if Bolton becomes SOS. The Ghoul will not be much better.
LostOne4Ever
(9,286 posts)https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/11/10/hillary-clinton-lost-bernie-sanders-could-have-won/?utm_term=.93f1930f8f9c
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/presidential-election-donald-trump-would-have-lost-if-bernie-sanders-had-been-the-candidate-a7406346.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-election-poll-bernie-sanders-trump_us_58260f7ee4b0c4b63b0c6928
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)LostOne4Ever
(9,286 posts)pnwmom
(108,955 posts)considering the 2 foot thick folder of opposition research that Eichenwald described.
Hillary was subject to everything they could throw at her during the general election. Bernie never faced that test. It's silly to argue that because his poll results were higher -- his popularity based on never being subject to serious RNC attack -- that he would have won if he were the nominee.
mcar
(42,278 posts)the "vetting" that BS would have received cannot possibly be considered accurate.
LostOne4Ever
(9,286 posts)mcar
(42,278 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Why did Hillary write off Wisconsin for months, assuming it was in the bag? Where was the enthusiastic turnout of Obama voters in rust belt states, after we were promised during the primaries how energized those people would be, for Hillary?
The numbers don't lie.
And yes, James Comey was a factor. So was a ridiculous media. And yes, so was voter suppression, "caging", all those tools in the GOP toolbox.
But Jill Stein? People who vote 3rd party waste their votes, but there is always a small percentage of them. Imagining that "this time" their votes belong to us, is folly. We need to win without those people. We need to be able to.
"Berniebros"? No, that shit isn't gonna fly. That's not going to explain why there was a red streak across the electoral map that just coincidentally happened to be the Rust Belt that HRC took for granted.
That happened to coincide with a perception that the candidate was out of touch with the economic concerns of people for whom the recovery never became much of a reality, but who appreciated the Auto Bailout and came out for Obama in 2012.
Her campaign was wildly out of touch, thinking that if it had Katy Perry and Beyonce it could forego formulating a cogent message to economically hurting people looking for more than just more of the same.
BainsBane
(53,012 posts)than Trump's margin of victory. Bernie or Busters also voted for Johnson. I encountered some while I was phone banking.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)but she should have been able to win without the Stein voters or the Libertarians. There are always some. Every 4 years. You can't assume this time it will be different, you can't assume their votes "belong" to you.
She didn't visit Wisconsin at all for months. That was a tactical error. A huge one, acknowledged by people on her campaign.
BainsBane
(53,012 posts)The analysis is Eichenwald's after all, not Clinton's. I share his anger. I told one to fuck off to his face last week myself--not the one in my own family, who I'm not sure how I'll deal with.
The thing about Wisconsin is that the polls showed her up by a considerable margin. The polls were wrong all the way around. She didn't come to MN after the caucuses either, and she came within 1.4 points of losing. That was a shock to me. No one expected that. Certainly not Trump. They believed they would lose. That's why they are so woefully unprepared for taking office.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)but given that this is 2016 postmortem, AFAIC that involves trying to figure out what actually happened. I don't know anyone who admits having voted Green, I suspect I have a sibling who voted Libertarian, but she's in a state we won anyway. But we all exist in our little bubbles, which may be part of the problem as well. We don't hear the other side.
Certainly we can do that thing where we add all the Stein votes to the total and yeah, we would have won. Fucking Stein voters! I'm with you. But, there's never been an election in recent history where the Greens got zero votes. Some people actually ARE Greens, not just disaffected Democrats, for whatever reason, just as some people vote Peace and Freedom or Constitution or Transcendental Meditation party or actually think Deez Nuts has a superior foreign policy platform.
If we want to look realistically at what happened- as near as I can tell, the enthusiasm gap was real. That's my take.
And it was predicated upon several things, some having to do with the candidate and her campaign, unfairly, some having to do with the candidate and her campaign, fairly, and some having to do with things totally out of that sphere, like the fact that it's just damn tough for a party to win 3 white house terms in a row.
BainsBane
(53,012 posts)So people don't have to worry about that. I saw a hell of a lot of enthusiasm, and the reaction in the streets to the election certainly doesn't suggest a lack of enthusiasm. As I posted in this forum, I didn't realize how much her candidacy meant to me until she lost. I've taken this loss very personally, and I will see her as a powerful symbol of women's struggle for equality as long as I live.
Voter suppression is part of the problem. The GOP controls those rust belt states. They limited access in communities of color. We need to get control of state governments and stop focusing so incessantly on presidential races.
Trade deals are a problem, and the good thing is that the Democrats have learned that. I don't think they will be the party of those deals in the future.
Russ Feingold lost too, so it's not as simple as some want to make it. Racism and sexism were key. We wouldn't be seeing the rash of hate crimes if they weren't.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I thought she did a good job as a candidate, particularly from the convention on. Like a lot of people, I truly, genuinely thought she was going to win. If her campaign had issues, that isn't entirely on her.
I agree we need to start winning more statehouses. The 2020 census and associated redistricting needs to be a front burner focus.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)The end. They got a lot wrong about the emails, how individual donations get labeled corporate, the DNC ganging up against Bernie from the beginning (not knowing the dates of the emails) and they were very talkative people- spreading misinformation. A few were doing write ins too. It was sort of crazy.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)but I don't think this was a "Berner" problem. Bernie came out strong for Hillary after the convention. You look at the counties Trump carried that went Obama in 2008 and 2012, this was about the Rust Belt feeling like their economic concerns weren't being listened to. This was not a progressive purity problem.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)And you seem to think he'd have been a miracle tax and spend elitist Dem to get through to those people? He called himself an outsider and flung shit in the general direction of all Dems, but he was just as much a career politician as Hillary. Had worse dirt he never had to endure, and gets to go home unsullied after he allowed his fans to get jacked up on crazy fantasies about a takeover at the convention. Raising taxes would have killed him, it always does with those folks.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It's not about who is a career politician, it's about who is identified with serving corporate interests versus listening to the people who have lost their manufacturing jobs.
Look, the fact is that those jobs aren't coming back, and we need to find a way to articulate that and help people move forward in a fashion that doesn't sound like "we don't give a shit about you, flyover country"
These are simple and obvious facts, from where I sit. We can re-fight the primaries until the end of time, it's not gonna put one single more Democrat in office.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)your 100% right about why and what happened. It really deserves it's own post.
Even after the bubble burst they still don't get it.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)The national survey of more than 1,600 registered voters, conducted by Gravis Marketing two days before the general election, found that Sanders would have received 56 percent of the vote while Trump would have won 44 percent. (Wilms edits to add, "cough" The poll was commissioned and financed by outgoing Florida Congressman Alan Grayson, a Democrat who endorsed Sanders in the presidential primary.
The last election result that decisive was Ronald Reagans victory over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984.
snip
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-election-poll-bernie-sanders-trump_us_58260f7ee4b0c4b63b0c6928
The rethugs were rough on Hillary, how much rougher do you think they would have been on Bernie? Quite a bit. particularly when you look at the KKK links.
Lunabell
(6,046 posts)Hillary was a very flawed candidate. She has no appeal to the working class Americans and this is why she failed.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)I'm a WORKING CLASS American. So are most people I know. Who all VOTED for Hillary. Even the Republicans I know.
Try something new why don't you?
She was flawed because.... emails, emails, Benghazi, emails, right? Fuck that.
Isn't it wonderful how so many people bought into all the years of rw smears? Isn't it just grand?
Am I angry? You bet I am. But then again, I have family that is already being targeted because the monster was selected. Because white people in rural areas were afraid of a strong woman.
Lunabell
(6,046 posts)Exit polls show just that.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)You honestly think that Trump is better than Hillary for working people, do you?
Lunabell
(6,046 posts)At all. Trump lied to his followers and told them what they wanted to hear. He isn't going to follow through on any of it.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)She was such a flawed candidate but it was her turn.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)on their ballot? How many voters wrote in Bernie, knowing they were throwing away their vote? How many Democratic voters pinched their nose and voted?
Less people voted in this election than the last two presidential elections.
spooky3
(34,405 posts)than in 2012 and votes are still being counted in 2016.
And, in 2008, 129446839 votes were cast per Wiki (for Obama and McCain--I don't recall that third party candidates had much presence that year but you could search for their vote total and add it to the 129446839. Per Cook more than 130 mill. have been counted so far in 2016. Other pundits have noted that there are many more votes to count in NY, Calif., etc.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)He ran a candidacy- that's way too hypothetical.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)after Trump got started on him.
PS -Read the article - it explains why the "Bernie would have won" bunk is nonsense.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Heard it all before, too. Like "he wasn't vetted...".
athena
(4,187 posts)Try reading the fourth through seventh paragraphs under the heading "The Myth That Sanders Would Have Won Against Trump".
Sanders was much more vulnerable than Hillary was. It is folly to think that he could have won the election based on a poll taken before the Republican Party had a chance to unleash its machine against him.
I mentioned elsewhere that it read like a lot of what was thrown at him in the primary.
athena
(4,187 posts)And yet, we're supposed to believe he would have won the General.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)You're aware how it was stacked against him, but how his message reonated.
HRC is our party's least popular candidate to ever run. And likely no other candidate, other than an incumbant had the road pre-paved as did she.
And we got nuthin'.
athena
(4,187 posts)You really think the first woman presidential candidate of a major party, who faced misogyny at every turn and lost because of misogyny*, "had the road pre-paved."
You are obviously a man. I suggest you try listening to women. Don't dismiss women's opinions just because you would rather think that you live in a totally egalitarian world.
*Hillary won the popular vote. Some men and women voted for Trump because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a woman. Ergo, Hillary lost the election because of misogyny. If we lived in a totally egalitarian world, in which we didn't hate women for being smart and ambitious and capable, Hillary would have won in a landslide.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)It was somewhat close enough in the swing states to argue that. I threw out how unpopular she is because it covers all the bases.
athena
(4,187 posts)Before she decided to run, I was hoping she wouldn't run because I didn't want to see the sexism her candidacy would bring out of the woodwork. And I thought she might lose because she's a woman, and people hate ambitious women. Later, though, she seemed to be doing so well that I allowed myself to become hopeful. This is a heartbreaking result.
This blog post makes the argument better than I can:
Like a bull, she walks in. Donatella Trump, six foot, boxy, resting bitch face. Shes got an enormous beehive tinted by hovering mists of spray-tan. Her stance is wide. She doesnt listen, she interrupts, she gets flustered and emotional. Shes easily lost in political conversations and in regular conversations. She is a scam artist who stiffs small businesses and workers. Multiple men say that she used her tiny hands to grope them. And of course theres her inexplicable obsession with insulting Steve Harvey.
Please. This woman doesnt get enough signatures to get on the ballot in her home state. Even if she does make it to the general election (LOL), imagine her campaign against the Yale Law-educated champion of children and health care, the former senator and secretary of state, Henry Clinton. Just pause on that for a moment: Donatella Trump vs. Henry Clinton.
Do not tell me that all is equal. Its not.
(Emphasis mine.)
email
Benghazi
Third Way
Dynasty
Deplorables
Corrupt
Bill
Democrat
Any of these real or imagined things could have had a yield no different than misogyny. I think it's OK to consider all of it.
athena
(4,187 posts)For example, you can't honestly claim that the loss of four lives in Benghazi was a bigger disaster than the loss of thousands of lives on 9/11. In fact, the very fact that you would bring up such a list of right-wing attacks against Hillary suggests to me that you were probably against Hillary to begin with.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)You, nor I, are any one else.
mcar
(42,278 posts)Stops the "Bernie would have won" nonsense cold.
MrScorpio
(73,630 posts)Didn't have their heads screwed on straight.
That amount of naivety by lefties about The GOPrs is mind boggling.
Hekate
(90,556 posts)I don't know how long Skinner is going to let the rehashing of the primaries go on, but it sure is bringing the terminally naive out of the woodwork.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)describing the terminally "naive". I would say more, but I'd get hidden were I to let loose.
Hekate
(90,556 posts)JTFrog
(14,274 posts)JTFrog
(14,274 posts)In a nutshell.
DirkGently
(12,151 posts)http://www.inquisitr.com/3704461/hillary-voters-owe-it-to-america-to-stop-calling-everyone-a-nazi-and-start-reading-wikileaks/
Hekate
(90,556 posts)DirkGently
(12,151 posts)We have an electoral college, which everyone knew going in. Your winning candidates win the vote that actually gets counted.
Hekate
(90,556 posts)We know about the EC. It lay dormant during the 20th century, but twice in less than 20 years it has delivered a president who failed to win the actual vote.
Any plans from the left to help deliver us from that evil?
DirkGently
(12,151 posts)The huge glaring failure here was lack of votes overall. I'm open to discussing the EC, but it's not the reason we lost to a candidate who didn't pull as many votes as Mccain or Romney.
We picked a bad candidate.
Also, Dems who talk about "the left" as though it were the enemy are not going to win us anything, ever.
Hekate
(90,556 posts)DirkGently
(12,151 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)The same forces which distribute power out across the rural parts of the country for the EC distribute it in terms of the high bar for passing amendments to the Constitution.
You could get everyone in CA and NY to demand abolishing the Electoral College, it still wouldn't go anywhere.
Hekate
(90,556 posts)It's got to start somewhere.
But let's continue the Hillary blaming. That's real productive.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Yeah, Bernie did "think he could become POTUS". And maybe he would have. Sure, the conventional wisdom beltway people didn't think he could, but they didn't think Trump could, either, did they? Hell, they thought for sure we'd be seeing Jeb Bush as the GOP nominee.
Maybe you didn't notice, but the self-assured proclamations from Manhattan and DC didn't rack up a particularly good batting average this cycle.
They also thought that getting an endorsement from Beyonce would be more persuasive to the electorate than talking Jobs to rural Michigan. Hmmm, Go figure.
Bernie also did a fuckton better than HRC in the Rust Belt during the primaries and might have actually spoken to the deep economic anxiety of those voters. Maybe.
If we want to "post morterm 2016" we should ask what actually went wrong, and understandably people are going to have differing opinions on that.
Not surprisingly the folks who were pushing the "racist sexist berniebros" narrative now would like us to believe that everything was done hunky dory perfectly in the Clinton campaign and losing was somehow Bernie Sanders' fault.
Now, If someone wants to propose an amendment abolishing the electoral college, I'm all for it. But it's not like it's gonna get ratified by the necessary number of states. By definition it would be removing power from numerous ones and concentrating it in the hands of a couple. Why would other states support that?
Hekate
(90,556 posts)There is actual work before us
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)well, there are a lot of other narratives which make a fuckton more sense and have evidence to back em up.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861
Beartracks
(12,797 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And a worthy goal. But still, the folks who benefit from the way things are will be the least likely to want to change it.
We made a lot of noise about this after the 2000 election, IIRC, and then it died down. When it looked like we had a lock on the EC this cycle- shit, I thought we did- certainly no one was mentioning it.
I don't see it changing, but I could be wrong.
anamnua
(1,103 posts)that Bernie -- a man for whom I have huge respect -- was effectively virgin territory as far as the Republican propaganda machine was concerned. By the time the Repug attack dogs had finished he would have been seen as America's answer to Joseph Stalin.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)the voters.
So, as one GOP strategist put it, normally you have to paint a picture of the opposition. In this case they merely had to reinforce peoples' -right or wrong- preconceived notions.
It is pure speculation at best to assume Sanders would have come out worse in that process.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)"In key battleground states, calls for help werent taken seriously enough."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861