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RandySF

(57,632 posts)
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:14 PM Nov 2016

Can the Democratic Party rise again? Yes and heres the first big thing to watch.

If you care about whether the Democratic Party can rebuild itself anytime soon out of the smoking wreckage left behind by the disastrous 2016 elections, something very important is happening a lot sooner than you think.

There are more than three dozen gubernatorial races taking place in the next two years. And they could do a tremendous amount to set the party on the path out of the wilderness in the Age of Donald Trump — with potentially significant national ramifications that could stretch well into the next decade, for instance by having a substantial influence over the redistricting of House seats, which could help determine control of the Lower Chamber in the 2020s.

Of course, the current state of affairs is dire indeed. Not only has the Democratic Party been shut out of Washington, where the GOP controls both the White House and Congress, but the carnage is widespread on the state level, too: Next year, Republicans will control more than 30 governors’ mansions nationwide, and have total control (meaning GOP governors and GOP control of both state legislative chambers) in some 25 states. By contrast, Democrats will have total control in all of five states. The 2018 Senate map looks grim for any prospects of a Dem takeover, and the House is all but certain to remain out of reach in 2018 as well.

But the other part of the story is that, in 2017 and 2018, there will be a total of 38 gubernatorial contests. Here, courtesy of the Democratic Governors Association, is the 2017-2018 gubernatorial map:

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484


https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/11/25/can-the-democratic-party-rise-again-yes-and-heres-the-first-big-thing-to-watch/

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Can the Democratic Party rise again? Yes and heres the first big thing to watch. (Original Post) RandySF Nov 2016 OP
Given the razor-thin margins in the swing states, and the Dem's huge lead in the popular vote... LisaM Nov 2016 #1
One thing to be cautious of there FBaggins Nov 2016 #19
Yes, but the margin in most swing states is only 1 or 2 percent. LisaM Nov 2016 #31
We COULD win NV, NM, FL, GA, OH and MI and possibly ME. Exilednight Nov 2016 #2
Key for Ohio is making sure Strickland doesn't try for a comeback. Ken Burch Nov 2016 #4
What about MD and IL? RandySF Nov 2016 #5
Off cycle elections are hard, especially in Illinois after the Blagojevich debacle. Exilednight Nov 2016 #7
Rauner will go down if we have a halfway decent candidate. Ace Rothstein Nov 2016 #13
Dems could easily win in Maine IF no liberals or lefts vote third party NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #8
Then the state party needs to pick a candidate that can win those voters. Exilednight Nov 2016 #10
The only reason LePage won is because it was a 3 way race NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #11
Going forward, Maine will use ranked-choice voting. brooklynite Nov 2016 #18
Yeah, if they implement it by then... but I'm glad the people voted for it. Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2016 #42
1st time was actually a 5 way race that gave us LePage in the first place - which was awful Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2016 #43
You left out NJ Jersey Devil Nov 2016 #26
Ga? Hmmmm. I don't know. We ran Sam Nunn'ps daughter in the last election and we were napi21 Nov 2016 #29
Supposed to have our ranked choice voting system by 2018... Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2016 #39
Can Walker run for another term? What about LePage in Maine? Ken Burch Nov 2016 #3
Nope, LePage can't run again NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #9
What was it that some people liked about the guy? Ken Burch Nov 2016 #12
Tea Party morons mostly... NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #15
The other thing working in King's favor... Ken Burch Nov 2016 #16
True, lol NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #17
I think the issue with King and his reduced (although potent) participation BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #38
I keep thinking Angus King when I see King... he was already gov years ago. n/t Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2016 #41
Yup I know! BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #44
I think LePage had an edge the second time because the dem was revealled to be gay Zing Zing Zingbah Dec 2016 #40
Walker can and is going to. TheLibIn615 Nov 2016 #20
The big thing is, they can't re-nominate the same guy he beat the first two times... Ken Burch Nov 2016 #23
And then there is his gerrymandered legislature TheLibIn615 Nov 2016 #25
Isn't Mark Ruffalo from Wisconsin? NoGoodNamesLeft Nov 2016 #27
2018 needs to be the firewall, if people sit it out, its done until 2020 or 2024 Historic NY Nov 2016 #6
SC will also be somewhat of an incumbent. GoCubsGo Nov 2016 #14
Exactly. Thanks for your positive post with solid strategy that will make a real difference. ancianita Nov 2016 #21
That's good but I think the bigger issue is to win the house in 2018, which is possible if the GOP Fast Walker 52 Nov 2016 #22
The only way we win back the House is by doing what the DCCC refused to do Ken Burch Nov 2016 #24
definitely we need better leadership from the DCCC, which obviously has been not doing enough Fast Walker 52 Nov 2016 #32
I agree that better leadership is needed, but kcr Nov 2016 #34
Also, NC will have a special election for legislature in 2017 Jersey Devil Nov 2016 #28
People must learn to show up for elections. CBHagman Nov 2016 #30
that is for sure-- because elections really matter Fast Walker 52 Nov 2016 #33
Yes a million to this. And we need to get in the habit of encouraging that a lot more on the left. kcr Nov 2016 #35
I know! And it's really ceding power. CBHagman Dec 2016 #46
what a joke. Dem must kick out the corporatists and bring in the Sanders/Warren uhnope Nov 2016 #36
Control of state houses and governors means control over redistricting in the state. Tiggeroshii Nov 2016 #37
Turnout in 2018 needs to be big. Democrats don't turnout in midterms like they do in muntrv Dec 2016 #45
And Maine can finally get rid off Gov. LePew paleotn Dec 2016 #47
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #48
How do you suggest we energize them? uppityperson Dec 2016 #49

LisaM

(27,759 posts)
1. Given the razor-thin margins in the swing states, and the Dem's huge lead in the popular vote...
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:17 PM
Nov 2016

This is eminently doable. I think our ideas and messages resonate. We are being gamed by the system.

FBaggins

(26,696 posts)
19. One thing to be cautious of there
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:16 PM
Nov 2016

That "huge lead" in the popular vote is almost entirely from California (where we weren't in danger of losing anything) and was in the Presidential race.

Republicans held a larger popular vote lead in House races.

LisaM

(27,759 posts)
31. Yes, but the margin in most swing states is only 1 or 2 percent.
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 01:02 AM
Nov 2016

And I think that California is often a leader in how the rest of rest of the country goes.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
4. Key for Ohio is making sure Strickland doesn't try for a comeback.
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:21 PM
Nov 2016

His blowout loss in the Senate race proves he'll never be electable at a statewide level again.

Ace Rothstein

(3,109 posts)
13. Rauner will go down if we have a halfway decent candidate.
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 10:34 PM
Nov 2016

A ton of voters voted for Rauner who voted Dem in the other statewide races.

 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
8. Dems could easily win in Maine IF no liberals or lefts vote third party
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:38 PM
Nov 2016

That is how LePage the moron won twice.

Exilednight

(9,359 posts)
10. Then the state party needs to pick a candidate that can win those voters.
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:47 PM
Nov 2016

If they pick a Hillary type, they'll los again.

Need someone who can energize the base.

 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
11. The only reason LePage won is because it was a 3 way race
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:58 PM
Nov 2016

The majority of people did NOT want LePage and close to the end the 3rd party candidate, Eliot Cutler, began to surge and people voted for him thinking he was going to be able to beat LePage. The Republicans were loyal to their party and the non-Lepage voters split their voted between two candidates, Eliot Cutler and Libby Mitchell. The second time LePage won was another three way race with Eliot Cutler and Mike Michaud. These were not bad candidates...Eliot Cutler was a spoiler that divided all the non-LePage voters. In 2010 LePage only got 38% of the vote and was Governor. I'm not sure about the second time around because I moved away due to lack of jobs.

Zing Zing Zingbah

(6,496 posts)
42. Yeah, if they implement it by then... but I'm glad the people voted for it.
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 10:18 AM
Dec 2016

That means they need to take action... I just expect that certain people will try to get in the way of it happening. Plus they do have to work out the implementation details. Honestly, I will be impressed if the system is set up by 2018.

Zing Zing Zingbah

(6,496 posts)
43. 1st time was actually a 5 way race that gave us LePage in the first place - which was awful
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 10:23 AM
Dec 2016

Ranked choice would have saved us all from him if it was in place back then. 2nd time three way race, but LePage was the incumbent and Michaud was a good guy, but I think I lot of people turned against him when they found out he was gay. He was the 2nd district US rep for years before then. That was really unfortunate. Culter wasn't helping the situation either as you noted.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
29. Ga? Hmmmm. I don't know. We ran Sam Nunn'ps daughter in the last election and we were
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:56 PM
Nov 2016

feeling pretty good about our chances, but we lost. a. has been heavily gerrymandered and that's big problem. 2020 is the next census and it would be terrific if we could get some Dems in the legislature and a Dem Governor by then. Somebody who knows a wole lot more about the potential Dem candidates needs to get their butt in gear NOW. I hate to say this but if they need to lie to tell voters what they want to hear, then damn it LIE!

Zing Zing Zingbah

(6,496 posts)
39. Supposed to have our ranked choice voting system by 2018...
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 10:07 AM
Dec 2016

We shall see on that one. I have a feeling people like LePage and such will drag their feet on implementing ranked choice voting system. No idea who would be running. I'm just hoping no assholes this time. People have been talking about Susan Collins giving up her senate seat to run for Maine gov. I don't know if she would do that though and she is a good senator. I think she would be a good governor actually. She has always put Maine people first and she is thoughtful and respectful. She is one of few good republicans left.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
3. Can Walker run for another term? What about LePage in Maine?
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 09:19 PM
Nov 2016

Those two seats would be top on our targets, from what I can see.

And do we have a strong potential candidate in MA? That state should be the easiest retake for us, if the state party can just get its act together.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
12. What was it that some people liked about the guy?
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 10:15 PM
Nov 2016

Even allowing for the fact that the anti-LePage vote was split, he significantly increased his vote share when he was re-elected.

 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
15. Tea Party morons mostly...
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 10:55 PM
Nov 2016

There is a segment of rural Maine Republicans who have been convinced that people who get state assistance are all pill popping methadone taking leeches who have dozens of kids, collect massive amounts of welfare and sit around drinking Allen's coffee brandy all day long. Oh and they go buy many cases of bottled water, dump it out and return the bottles for 5 cents each so they can buy cigarettes and booze.

There aren't enough jobs to go around so a lot of people need help. Those fortunate enough to have jobs (some of them) have been taught to hold those who don't in contempt for "taking their tax dollars." Those are the LePage fans...they are mostly just dumb or old and cranky. That only makes up for about 25% of the voters. Some just don't pay much attention or vote for the least polished one. LePage is like the idiot drunk uncle you are embarrassed to be related to. He's just plain dumb...I mean REALLY dumb. He thought BPA would cause women to grow little beards if they eat from containers microwaved that have the substance in it. He went on a drunken threatening tirade on a voicemail. He's a blowhard. He's like Twitter Trump.

I did not know or associate with a single person who voted for or liked LePage even when I lived there. It's very common knowledge that the reason he won was due to the 3 way split. I'd like to see Stephen King run. He lives there and has a home in Bangor. He does a great deal for the community and I think he'd easily win.





 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
16. The other thing working in King's favor...
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:03 PM
Nov 2016

...is that, based on his books, a lot of folks would be scared of voting AGAINST him:





 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
17. True, lol
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:08 PM
Nov 2016

He's definitely into politics, so maybe he'll run, but I doubt it. Maine especially needs to really focus on preventing the 3 way vote split. Now if Susan Collins were to decide to run she'd easily win because she has a lot of cross over appeal because she's pretty moderate.

BumRushDaShow

(127,301 posts)
38. I think the issue with King and his reduced (although potent) participation
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 09:14 AM
Dec 2016

goes back to some frustrating physical limitations he has talked about that were the result of being hit by that van in the late-90s.

Zing Zing Zingbah

(6,496 posts)
40. I think LePage had an edge the second time because the dem was revealled to be gay
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 10:11 AM
Dec 2016

So he got some more folks just because they didn't want a gay gov unfortunately.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
23. The big thing is, they can't re-nominate the same guy he beat the first two times...
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:25 PM
Nov 2016

...or the centrist they all knew was doomed to lose to him in '14.

Needs to be a real fighter this time.

TheLibIn615

(61 posts)
25. And then there is his gerrymandered legislature
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:31 PM
Nov 2016

And their appalling voter suppression tactics.

I agree with you on Mary Burke. I liked her but she was about as inspiring as a root canal. Having lived in Madison while that was going on, it was easy to forget just how wide Walker's base is geographically.

 

NoGoodNamesLeft

(2,056 posts)
27. Isn't Mark Ruffalo from Wisconsin?
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:49 PM
Nov 2016

Draft some famous people that voters love to run. He was awesome in Law and Order.

GoCubsGo

(32,061 posts)
14. SC will also be somewhat of an incumbent.
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 10:34 PM
Nov 2016

With Nikki Haley leaving to be Don the Con's Ambassador to the UN, her replacement, Henry McMaster will likely run for re-election. He is a Trump toady, which COULD be a problem for him in a couple of years, depending on how much damage is done. Technically, he won't be re-elected, but odds are, he'll return for a full term, barring the people getting really pissed off at him.

ancianita

(35,812 posts)
21. Exactly. Thanks for your positive post with solid strategy that will make a real difference.
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:21 PM
Nov 2016

A strong party leadership that's willing to donate all-out support to gubernatorial races is about winning.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
22. That's good but I think the bigger issue is to win the house in 2018, which is possible if the GOP
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:25 PM
Nov 2016

does away with Medicare. Or at least Trump is bound to fuck up enough to have people want an opposition party in there against him.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
24. The only way we win back the House is by doing what the DCCC refused to do
Tue Nov 29, 2016, 11:29 PM
Nov 2016

from 1994 through most of the Dubya era, and in '10 and '14-nationalize the campaign and fire people up. We need something that actually generates enthusiasm and makes people feel that voting matters.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
32. definitely we need better leadership from the DCCC, which obviously has been not doing enough
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 08:01 AM
Nov 2016

in recent years. I really don't know the details and ins and outs on how to do this, and I know it will be hard, but I can't think of a more pressing issue for the party right now.

kcr

(15,300 posts)
34. I agree that better leadership is needed, but
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 09:24 AM
Nov 2016

We need to do away with the notion that pointing out how bad the GOP is is fearmongering, and stop with coddling people on our side who state they will stay home or vote third party. That should be shamed, not featured as a tactic. We continue to hobble ourselves with that nonsense and will always be on the fringes as long as it prevails. Should Dems run quality candidates? Absolutely and they should be called on it when they don't. But that does not absolve voters their duty and obligation from being informed and I don't give them a pass either. If we encourage our own base to sit elections out or throw their votes away, it only weakens our voice and our power, not the other way around. Politicians are skittish and will only run where the safe and reliable votes are. It's cheaper that way, too. Often when Dems are running the bad candidates, it's because they think they're running safe. We can encourage more with carrots than we can with threats.

CBHagman

(16,968 posts)
30. People must learn to show up for elections.
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 12:10 AM
Nov 2016

There was a drop in participation even in the presidential election years such as 2012. I suspect too many people are not really aware what each midterm election means for their own future, let alone the future of the country.

In particular, younger voters are going to have to learn to love turning out for the midterms. As a bloc, they're more likely to sit things out. It's been that way for some time (people tend to participate more as they grow older), but if they want to make policy, millennials are going to have to rock the vote.

kcr

(15,300 posts)
35. Yes a million to this. And we need to get in the habit of encouraging that a lot more on the left.
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 09:32 AM
Nov 2016

There is way too much of the opposite, as I was just saying in another post on this thread. Way too much complaining about how bad the candidates are, and how unenthusiastic everyone is. We don't have a voting culture that has a deep sense of voting obligation on our side. There's the misguided notion that threatening to withhold votes will somehow get better candidates. It's never worked, but somehow it persists. It's really too bad, because it costs us.

CBHagman

(16,968 posts)
46. I know! And it's really ceding power.
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 01:21 PM
Dec 2016

I had this conversation with my neighbor the other night about this. He was saying that the candidates should excite people. But elections are going to take place whether the voters are excited or not, and the reps are going to get two years in the House and the victorious Senate candidates six years in the Senate however people feel about the individual candidates. It's what comes after the election that's going to matter.

I fear that that the charismatic Barack Obama's victories have given more than a few people in the States false expectations about what candidates and success look like. Sometimes success comes in the form of an unexciting but equally hardworking candidate.

 

uhnope

(6,419 posts)
36. what a joke. Dem must kick out the corporatists and bring in the Sanders/Warren
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 02:15 PM
Nov 2016

or the party is dead forever and the experiment is over

 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
37. Control of state houses and governors means control over redistricting in the state.
Wed Nov 30, 2016, 05:36 PM
Nov 2016

Which means a nearly guaranteed Democratic House of Representatives in 2020.

Getting a majority of the state houses is key to coming back big in 2020. And seeing how the VRA is probably entirely gone within the next couple of years, state houses in the south will be key to turnout in states with heavily restrictive voter ID laws.

muntrv

(14,505 posts)
45. Turnout in 2018 needs to be big. Democrats don't turnout in midterms like they do in
Thu Dec 1, 2016, 11:38 AM
Dec 2016

presidential elections.

Response to RandySF (Original post)

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