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Mon Dec 12, 2016, 07:50 PM

 

Key factors that led to Trump winning, according to my calculations:

Last edited Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:58 AM - Edit history (1)

30% -- the media's coverage of the campaign, and idiotic focus on Hillary's emails and neglect of issues of substance (e.g. climate change, jobs plans, healthcare). This part includes Comey's late breaking announcement on her emails (October surprise).

20% -- related to hacking by Russia, wikileaks, creating chaos and confusion about the Democrats

20% -- the historical situation of conservatives pissed off after 8 years of Obama and not wanting 4 more years of a "liberal" president (threats of gun control, keeping abortion legal, gay marriage, etc)

10% -- Trump's ability to game media coverage, lie effortlessly and demagogue like a champion

10% -- voter suppression efforts by the GOP

10%-- missteps by Hillary's campaign and her flaws as a candidate

The MAIN POINT is that in a close election, as this last one was, any of these factors could tip it one way or the other. Russian hacking definitely played a role.

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Reply Key factors that led to Trump winning, according to my calculations: (Original post)
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 OP
Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #1
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #5
JI7 Dec 2016 #2
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #3
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #6
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #17
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #18
uponit7771 Dec 2016 #4
JCanete Dec 2016 #7
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #14
LisaL Dec 2016 #8
lame54 Dec 2016 #9
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #13
lame54 Dec 2016 #15
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #19
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #20
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #24
hueymahl Dec 2016 #10
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #11
LenaBaby61 Dec 2016 #30
Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #12
Orsino Dec 2016 #16
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #22
budkin Dec 2016 #21
mtnsnake Dec 2016 #23
Corey_Baker08 Dec 2016 #25
Squinch Dec 2016 #26
unblock Dec 2016 #27
Hoyt Dec 2016 #28
ymetca Dec 2016 #29
dubyadiprecession Dec 2016 #31
sfwriter Dec 2016 #32

Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 08:04 PM

1. Progressive Puritans

 

and their idiotic "I'm not voting for the lesser of two evils" rationale definitely played a role.

Also, let's give Bernie Sanders credit for half-heartedly dropping out of the race a full two months later than he should have, giving young impressionable voters a false sense of hope that he'd win. Their disillusionment was heard loud and clear on election day.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:15 PM

5. yes, but I think that's where the Russian hacks/wikileaks really played a role in amplifying their

 

disappointment and resentment.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 08:08 PM

2. i put more into russia hacking/fbi.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 09:31 PM

3. It was her job

You have to assign more to the candidate. It was their job to address those other realities of politics. Well, except for the whole Russian thing. But I do think that the DNC and most democrats didn't acknowledge the challenge of a party getting a "third term".

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #3)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:18 PM

6. but I think overall her campaign did a good job -- not enough obviously, but reasonably good

 

given the bizarre nature of the race.

She rocked the debates, and was solid throughout. Clearly there were missteps at the end though.

I think they put too much stock in the polls, which were definitely way off.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 01:41 PM

17. She was in trouble from the beginning

She was in serious trouble from the beginning, which is why Bernie became such a threat to her. Yes, there were many mistakes made, the real question is could she have run a "good enough" campaign to win. Considering that "third terms" are very hard, one wonders if she could have done anything.

Just look at their slogans. Hers suggested that things were good and we needed to keep moving in the same direction. He suggested things were "bad" and we needed to change directions. She got the majority of the support. Unfortunately, the people that decided the election were people who thought that we were going in the wrong direction. And really, looking from their point of view, one can understand their frustrations. Conversely, there is no way she could have address their concerns in a meaningful way during the campaign. First she would have lost much of the support she did have (which was a majority) and second, these people where not going to accept someone with such a long history of involvement at the national level. Again, a minority of the population by a long stretch, and even a minority of some of the key demographics. Unfortunately, they were spread "just right" (which is why some people are suspicious that there was someone doing the spreading).

This is particularly frustrating to me because I've been concerned about this for several election cycles, that someone in the GOP would figure out that the democrats had lost much of the blue collar vote. I just never thought it would be Vladimir Trump.

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #17)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 04:22 PM

18. Yes, all points well taken. She was kind of stuck. The thing that really hurt though was the polls

 

being so wrong. Otherwise, they would have had a different strategy. But the whole thing was a complex moving machine and every little thing factored.

Obviously they were over-confident, and I suspect they, like I always did, thought Trump was unelectable as president.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:08 PM

4. +1

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:58 AM

7. argh...I hate this! he doesn't game media coverage...the media is game for it!

 

He doesn't get credit for being a basic troll that they keep feeding.

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Response to JCanete (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:59 AM

14. yes, that's why I think the media is the number #1 cause for Trump's win

 

but he did know how to manipulate them, so have to give him some credit.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 01:01 AM

8. Well, don't forget Bernie or Busters.

Bernie got over it, some of his voters never did.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 01:03 AM

9. McConnel withholding information

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Response to lame54 (Reply #9)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:59 AM

13. yeah-- true. I guess that falls under the Russian hacking category overall

 

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #13)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 11:22 AM

15. No way...

A Russian attack is to be expected

McConnell is a fucking traitor

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Response to lame54 (Reply #15)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 04:23 PM

19. fair enough. I agree he is and I wonder what would have happened if McConnell hadn't have blocked

 

the report.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #19)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:01 PM

20. Hate to say, but probably nothing

I'm afraid the votes she needed to get, she wasn't going to get. Trump basically was right. He could shoot someone on Park Avenue and they'd still vote for him. The report might have increased her popular vote margin, by getting more votes in states she already won, or states where it still wouldn't have helped her win anyway. But I suspect in WI, MI, and PA, it wouldn't have changed anything.

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #20)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:11 PM

24. I agree, not to mention that stories of Russian hacking were already out there and being ignored

 

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 01:54 AM

10. Good analysis

I think reasonable people can debate the percentages you used for each category, but you have listed all the main ones.

I would add the electorate's general distaste for having one family too involved in the levers of power. There was backlash against Jeb Bush for this reason. Clinton faced some of the same backlash.

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Response to hueymahl (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:57 AM

11. hmm, yes-- that actually hasn't been mentioned before that I've seen

 

although I know some people did not want to see Bill back in the WH.

Thanks

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Response to hueymahl (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:55 PM

30. "The electorate's general distaste for having one family too involved in the levers of power."

Problem is does that same electorate even SEE or understand or grasp that you now have the tRump Crime Mob Family in there on steroids, and also involved with and are pro-RUSSIA up to their eyeballs.

tRump Crime Mob family (With an assist from their buddies the Russians).

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:58 AM

12. fixed the numbers, since they added up to 110% before!

 

whoops

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 11:28 AM

16. Anyone who's trying to blame just one factor is selling something. n/t

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Response to Orsino (Reply #16)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:02 PM

22. Sorta

It's a collection of things. But you can separate them into "Things we could have handled, things completely out of control" and I think you can collect enough of the first that this election could have been won.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:02 PM

21. Emails

EMAILS!!!

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:25 PM

23. I think you summed it up nicely

If I was to use the same list of reasons you did, I would have it similarly but with a couple minor differences of percentage:

I would have it as 25%, 10%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 30%

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:37 PM

25. One Word: RUSSIA

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:39 PM

26. Lol. You boys are so cute.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:45 PM

27. I'd put the media coverage at 75% at least.

Without Donnie receiving 80% of the coverage, and without the Hillary coverage being nearly all negative, none of the other factors matter. In fact, many of the other factors are actually subsets of the biased media factor.

The media should never have presented Donnie as a viable candidate. He should have been covered like Gary Johnson. That said, had they been merely 50-50, Hillary would have won handily, even with the other crap.

Notice how Hillary had a nice lead after the conventions and after each debate? Those were the only times the media was remotely fair.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:46 PM

28. Trump was on the air a lot. If that was not enough to convince people he's a buffoon, racist, bigot

warmonger, poor businessman, liar, and worse., nothing the media could have done would have made a difference. People want an easy scapegoat, but I do not believe the media helped Trump. His ignorance, racism, white wingish leanings, etc., won it for him. That's what the people who vote in the key states wanted. Had Trump lost, the white wingers would have blamed the media. It ain't the media.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:55 PM

29. 99.9% voter suppression and ballot rat f*cking in my estimation

Seeing as HRC won the popular vote by a wide margin. The rest is just a collection of shiny objects the MSM wants us to obsess over. "Them's the rules!", all the pundits shout, while partisans toss ballots into a deep, dark hole.

Same as them relentlessly telling us the reason we're so poor is because we aren't clever, beautiful, talented, or just plain lucky enough, to ever be in their class.

And why? Because the Bible tells us so...

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:01 PM

31. Russian hacking was the problem...

The Clinton's have always had a superior get out the vote ground game. It never helps if your base turns out to vote in blue states and their votes are changed electronically to trump.
Remember, Trump campaign stops in the end were reported as unstructured. Many said it looked like "Trump was trying to throw spaghetti at the wall" trying to figure a path to 270.

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Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Tue Dec 13, 2016, 09:12 PM

32. Her lack of a penis?

 

I think the sexism of most Trump supporters goes without saying. Did anyone vote against her just because of this?

I've seen it fronted as a reason. It seems small compared to your list. Maybe 1%?

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