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Wed Dec 21, 2016, 06:19 AM

In which states would Bernie have done better or worse..

is the question.

Probably better in the Rust belt. Maybe not as well in states like Virginia.

82 replies, 6932 views

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Reply In which states would Bernie have done better or worse.. (Original post)
speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 OP
FBaggins Dec 2016 #1
Kentonio Dec 2016 #2
baldguy Dec 2016 #3
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #5
baldguy Dec 2016 #7
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #8
baldguy Dec 2016 #9
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #11
baldguy Dec 2016 #13
PotatoChip Dec 2016 #82
JudyM Dec 2016 #14
NWCorona Dec 2016 #22
baldguy Dec 2016 #61
NWCorona Dec 2016 #63
baldguy Dec 2016 #71
NWCorona Dec 2016 #74
baldguy Dec 2016 #78
Lonusca Dec 2016 #16
speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 #17
NWCorona Dec 2016 #21
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #43
Gothmog Dec 2016 #46
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #53
JudyM Dec 2016 #79
Name removed Dec 2016 #73
Gothmog Dec 2016 #36
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #40
Gothmog Dec 2016 #45
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #48
Gothmog Dec 2016 #54
Vinca Dec 2016 #4
nini Dec 2016 #64
crazycatlady Dec 2016 #6
Joe941 Dec 2016 #10
LonePirate Dec 2016 #12
speaktruthtopower Dec 2016 #18
emulatorloo Dec 2016 #29
Lonusca Dec 2016 #15
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #20
JudyM Dec 2016 #25
zipplewrath Dec 2016 #33
ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #19
NWCorona Dec 2016 #23
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #24
JHan Dec 2016 #34
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #38
duffyduff Dec 2016 #26
guillaumeb Dec 2016 #31
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #37
guillaumeb Dec 2016 #58
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #60
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #55
Yupster Dec 2016 #75
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #76
JCanete Dec 2016 #59
hollowdweller Dec 2016 #27
NCDem777 Dec 2016 #52
Dream Girl Dec 2016 #28
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #56
guillaumeb Dec 2016 #30
Name removed Dec 2016 #32
dionysus Dec 2016 #35
Gothmog Dec 2016 #39
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #42
Gothmog Dec 2016 #44
TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #47
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #57
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #65
Goblinmonger Dec 2016 #77
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #81
Orsino Dec 2016 #41
Willie Pep Dec 2016 #49
Ken Burch Dec 2016 #50
putitinD Dec 2016 #51
StevieM Dec 2016 #62
BigBoss26 Dec 2016 #66
Garrett78 Dec 2016 #68
BigBoss26 Dec 2016 #70
TexasBushwhacker Dec 2016 #67
Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #69
jfern Dec 2016 #72
KamaAina Dec 2016 #80

Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 08:58 AM

1. I don't think that's the right question

It would have been an entirely different race. He might have outperformed in every state... or none.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:00 AM

2. I suspect he'd have won Alaska.

 

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:04 AM

3. Stop with the fantasies. Bernie would have lost to Trump for real.

 

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Response to baldguy (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:43 AM

5. Maybe, maybe not.

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:50 AM

7. Sorry, no.

 

The story of President Sanders is a fairy tale for children.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #7)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:54 AM

8. Well,

Trump had no chance of even getting the party nomination.

Then Hillary was supposed to mop the floor with him in the GE.

Tell me again - How did that work out?

Never, ever rule anything out in politics. If you do, you're destined to be disappointed.

Sanders most certainly would have had a good shot at winning.

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 10:06 AM

9. Clinton beat Trump by 3 million actual votes.

 

Show me that liberal elitist socialist Jew caucus representing all those Red states Trump won that Sanders would have been able to win over.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 10:24 AM

11. Here's the deal -

If Donald Trump could (and did) actually win the GE, certainly Bernie Sanders could have won.

Learn from this experience, or you'll go up in smoke again next time.

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #11)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 10:40 AM

13. Here's the deal - you're always going to fail when you try to "prove" a falsehood.

 

The Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites that overwhelmingly voted for the slimy piece of filth Trump were never going to vote for his complete opposite, Sanders. They're the one he would have had to win over. Just relying on the anti-Democrat Clinton-hating misogynist "liberals" wouldn't have done it.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #13)

Fri Dec 23, 2016, 08:51 AM

82. Those you are describing when you say "Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites" are,

and always have been, solid R voters. Therefore, you are right that they never would have voted for Bernie. Those same people never voted for Obama either, but he still won those states without them.

Why? Because the Obama Coalition had other persuadable groups of people that (for whatever reason) Clinton failed to win over. Bernie had them too in the Primary with the exception of the more partisan Ds who went w/Clinton. However, those same partisan Ds would have needed little to no convincing to vote for Bernie in the GE had he been the D nominee...(Even if he was not their first choice). The harder ones to get, such as moderate and left leaning I's or Green Party type Progressives were already with Bernie and Obama.

IOW, had Bernie been the D nominee in the GE, he would have had the entirety of Obama's winning coalition.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:33 PM

14. "Jew?!" Are you aware at all?

And where are you getting that he's elitist? I guess that "fits" your stereotype, but it's the antithesis of Sanders, if you knew anything about his positions on issues.

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Response to JudyM (Reply #14)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:05 PM

22. The fact the the poster went there is all that's needed to know.

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Response to NWCorona (Reply #22)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 11:41 PM

61. You think Midwestern white evangelical hypocrites would just gloss over Sanders being Jewish?

 

These are people that still believe that every Jewish person alive today is personally responsible for the murder of their Savior, Jesus Christ. That the only problem with Hitler is that he didn't finish the job.

You really think Sanders would have been able to win them over?

The fact that you and the previous poster can't handle the plain evil we're dealing with & what they actually believe, and instead choose to ignore it & direct unwarranted insults toward me instead tells me everything I need to know.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #61)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 12:26 AM

63. I think some have a problem with Jewish people regardless of geographical location

Framing is everything.

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Response to NWCorona (Reply #63)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 08:29 AM

71. And those people voted for Trump, and would not have voted for Sanders.

 

Pretending they would have is a fantasy.

But you just keep going with your creepy insinuations the people who point out that fact are anti-Semites.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #71)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 11:09 AM

74. You don't think there are anti-Semites on the left?

As a black man in WA I think racism is alive and thriving regardless of the political spectrum

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Response to NWCorona (Reply #74)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 07:28 PM

78. It's not anti-Semitic to point out that RW assholes, supported by Nazis, just might be anti-Semitic.

 

Last edited Thu Dec 22, 2016, 10:27 PM - Edit history (1)

And pointing out that those same RW assholes, supported by racists, just might be racist themselves is not racist.

And to casually toss those accusations around - as you and some others here are doing - only helps those RW assholes & their allies.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:48 PM

16. Sanders would have had those CA votes too. nt

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:49 PM

17. These rust belt states..

voted for a black man. I think its fair to say the message means more than the ethnic and religious background.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:03 PM

21. Jew? And the shoe drops.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:16 PM

43. You lost your credibility around here, dude.

You "went there" once too often.

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:20 PM

46. Sanders actually did poorly with Jewish voters also

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 04:19 PM

53. Sanders has a better shot in WI, OH, MI, and PA

 

He was running on the economy and that seems to be how/why people voted in those states. Those states flip and Sanders wins.

Now, which states that Clinton won do you think Sanders wouldn't.

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Response to Goblinmonger (Reply #53)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 10:18 PM

79. You got that right!

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Response to baldguy (Reply #9)


Response to baldguy (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:31 PM

36. Sanders was a very weak general election candidate who would have been destroyed in the general

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #36)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:03 PM

40. You have no way to know that.

Trump had absolutely no chance of winning the GE, either.

Until he did...............

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #40)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:19 PM

45. In the real world facts matter

Sanders was in effect on the ballot in a number of races and Sanders under performed Clinton. Facts are good things.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #45)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:20 PM

48. In the real world,

which is still a bit foreign to you.

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #48)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 04:20 PM

54. I live in the real world where facts and authorities are important

It is a nice place.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:20 AM

4. IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER.

Yes, I'm screaming. It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Sometimes life sucks, sometimes it doesn't. This forum needs to be axed and given a new, future-looking title.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 12:49 AM

64. It's getting embarrassing isn't it?

Jesus.. the same crap over and over and over... most of it is not even based in reality.

I'M SCREAMING WITH YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 09:49 AM

6. Maine 2nd district

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 10:16 AM

10. The blue wall would have held and tRump would be a distant memory!

 

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Response to Joe941 (Reply #10)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 10:39 AM

12. The fact that Clinton outperformed the Senate candidates in PA and WI suggests otherwise.

Clinton pulled some Republicans - likely women - from the straight ticket Republican voters. There's nothing to suggest more of them (along with men) would have opted for Sanders.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #12)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:51 PM

18. That's where the expectation she would win hurt..

people may have been splitting the ticket to maintain balance.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #12)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:24 PM

29. 'Don't confuse me with the facts'

Appreciate all of your fact based posts recently. The facts just don't support the narratives that are gaining so much traction here.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:47 PM

15. Your's is the only question that really matters

Where would he have lost a state Clinton won (subtraction from her EC totals) and where would he have won where she lost (added).

Off the bat - would he have won MI and WI? I think those two are quite possible

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Response to Lonusca (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:01 PM

20. Yup

WI and MI were so close, his reputation on NAFTA and the TPP could have made the difference. Flip side is really where he might have lost. VA is a possibility.

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Response to zipplewrath (Reply #20)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:21 PM

25. I doubt he'd have lost VA but it might've been closer. Our population is shifting and northern

VA would likely have carried him, just as it did Obama, twice.

I did a lot of door to door in the VA primaries and can tell you that most people said they liked him better personally but they didn't know much about him, and also were leaning toward voting for a woman. VA was an early state, remember. Sanders did much better as time went on and he started getting media coverage. So he would've inspired heavy turnout in the north. The question is whether more people in mid/southern VA would've come out to vote against him. Personally, I think not.

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Response to JudyM (Reply #25)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:28 PM

33. Might have done well in Florida

I'm dubious, but he might have picked up a significant jewish vote in some areas. Maybe not though since there is a certain contingent that didn't think his support of Israel was strong enough. It's hard to tell too if he would have lost so many minority votes that it could have hurt him in unexpected places as well.

The one way it might have helped him over all was that Trump wasn't going to be able to beat him with the whole trade/NAFTA/TPP stick. He'd have beat him with other ones, but Bernie could have come back with minimum wage and tax returns. There would have been no "lock him up" either.

But, we'll never know.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 12:56 PM

19. If he had won the primary

We would know. But he lost that

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:07 PM

23. We will never know and as he won't be running again I think it's time to let it go

Bernie will fight on in the Senate.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:14 PM

24. Better in some solidly red states but not enough to win. Worse overall elsewhere.

He would have done better with young people and white men, but quite a bit worse overall.

You aren't going to win the Democratic Party nomination if you don't do well among persons of color, and it's a moot point if you can't get nominated.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #24)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:29 PM

34. Yeah, it would have helped if he actually registered Democrat too..

but different standards I guess.

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Response to JHan (Reply #34)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:38 PM

38. It might have helped a bit, but he still wouldn't have had the support of the base.

And if not for caucuses he *really* wouldn't have stood a chance.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:22 PM

26. He was not a viable candidate for president

 

which is why he was not nominated. The media hardly took him seriously because of it.

He would not have carried a single state outside Vermont. In fact, we would have President Michael Bloomberg and not Trump because MB would have made good on his threat to run an independent candidacy.

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Response to duffyduff (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:26 PM

31. Which is actually an excellent argument to make for Sanders to have been the candidate.

However, he did not win the nomination and Trump is the President elect.

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Response to guillaumeb (Reply #31)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:34 PM

37. Him not being viable is an excellent argument for him being the nominee?

How so?

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #37)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 06:16 PM

58. Following the logic of the poster, Bloomberg would have been the President.

A better choice than Trump.

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Response to guillaumeb (Reply #58)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 11:06 PM

60. Perhaps.

I'm not sure anyone would have gotten to 270 electoral votes, in which case the House would have chosen.

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Response to duffyduff (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 04:22 PM

55. Are we still pretending this wasn't an election of change?

 

Because if that's true, then, sure, he has no hope.

But if this was an election of change and a crazy, unqualified outsider got elected, that kind of changes the dynamic of whether Sanders does well.

Yeah, sure, he didn't win the nomination. Because Dems didn't see this as an election of change. How'd that work out for us?

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Response to Goblinmonger (Reply #55)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 11:44 AM

75. Can't say I know who would have won, but

I think Trump would have run against him as the career politician who's been in Washington for 30 years and hasn't done a damn thing.

Don't know what Bernie's message for the general would be so I can't really see in my own mind who would have won.

I don't see Bernie losing Michigan though.

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Response to Yupster (Reply #75)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:10 PM

76. Clearly it is hard to tell.

 

But I agree that Sanders would have done better in the rust belt. Sure he would have done poorly in the south where Clinton killed him, but Clinton didn't win those states in the general.

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Response to duffyduff (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 06:59 PM

59. do you understand the absurdity of saying that the media hardly took him serious because

 

Last edited Thu Dec 22, 2016, 08:36 AM - Edit history (1)

he wasn't a viable candidate?

This is really important, and I'm glad that you would present the facts the way you did because they present an opportunity to actually talk about the media's role in king making. Was Trump a viable candidate for President? Did the media take him seriously?

Yes it fucking did, whether that's what it thought it was doing or not, it was propping him up as a contender.

I'm so glad that you recognize that during the primaries the media didn't' take Sanders seriously. I absolutely agree. To go further, I agree that had he won that uphill battle and taken the primary, the media would have found a way to take him less seriously than Trump.

So I ask you, what does that actually say about our media's role in electioneering? What does that say about our media's role in determining who is viable? The media didn't think Sanders was a joke because he wasn't viable. The media had no interest in promoting a socialist and for that reason tried to make him a joke and to ensure that he wasn't viable.

I'm simply saying, you can't accept your own characterization of Sander's viability without running into contradictions when it comes to Trump's candidacy.

Absolutely, had Bloomberg run, we know who the media would have favored...but it would have been a strange year, and he would have pulled more republicans than progressives, so I"m not so certain of your end result, but I grant I don't know the answer, and as Sanders himself has said, "What does it matter now?"

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:23 PM

27. Who cares? Bernie lost to Clinton. Clinton lost to Trump

 


The question we should be asking is who are our new candidates? Can we get one that appeals to establishment dems, progressives and does not have the baggage that Clinton had with the private server.

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Response to hollowdweller (Reply #27)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:37 PM

52. Well establishment Dems have run the party into the ground

 

trying to chase after mythical rightwing voters who don't believe in every conspiracy theory that has ever been written.

Those rightwing voters do not factually exist.

The establishment Dems HAD their chance. The only time they win is when Repukes shoot themselves in the foot. Here's a list of Establishment "victories" since we tried the "Third Way" (IE being more polite Randians)

Bill Clinton won because of Republican incompetence. Once because Bush Sr. reneged on his ďNo New TaxesĒ pledge and once because Bob Dole was a terrible candidate. Barack Obama won because we were tired of Bush's warmongering and all around stupidity. He beat Romney because conservatives stayed home on account of him not being conservative enough for their tastes.

But when we went full tilt progressive in 06-08, we cleaned house.

The "establishment" can't win unless the Republicans screw themselves first. Not sustainable.

Just nominate an actual progressive. There's no Dem we could possibly nominate that will appeal to the nutters no matter how far right they swung. All trying to appeal to those assholes does is alienate actual progressives. All bending over backwards to compromise with conspiracy theorists accomplishes is give up everything we want and get not a damn thing in return.

Lilly livered blue poodles should not have any leadership positions in the Dem party. We tried their way. They failed horribly.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:24 PM

28. Just stop it okay??? New rule: No Bernie cultism on DU

 

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Response to Dream Girl (Reply #28)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 04:23 PM

56. God forbid we talk about what might need to be done to win the next election.

 

No, let's just talk about how this one was stolen from Clinton. And blame it on white, racist, rural voters. That should help us out in 2020.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:25 PM

30. There is nothing wrong with alternative history, or speculative fiction,

but given that it did not happen, there can be no real resolution. Any "how would he have done" posts assume far too much. The GOP would still have done their best to steal the election.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)


Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:30 PM

35. Is rehashing this going to accompmish ANYTHING? You've already got some of

The hillary fans calling to purge liberals from the party because they blame bernie so much... which causes some bernie peeps to rub in her loss... this is just going to end up a flame war.

PS like you said i think he may have done better in the rust belt, other places, not so sure. Might have done worse in the south.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 01:39 PM

39. Bernie Sanders Was On The 2016 Ballot  And He Underperformed Hillary Clinton

This is a good article that demonstrates that Sanders would have under performed in the general election https://extranewsfeed.com/bernie-sanders-was-on-the-2016-ballot-and-he-underperformed-hillary-clinton-3b561e8cb779#.jbtsa3epl

Of course, this narrative ignores the facts ó that despite Clintonís supposed flaws, she easily defeated Sanders in the primary via the pledged delegate count, that Sanders inability to convince minority voters doomed his campaign for the nomination, and that the attempt to use superdelegates to override the popular vote was an undemocratic power grab.

And the white workers whose supposed ďhate for corporate interestsĒ led them to vote for Trump? They donít seem upset that Trump has installed three Goldman Sachs executives in his administration. They donít seem to be angry that Trumpís cabinet is the wealthiest in US history. And we havenít heard any discontent from the white working class over Trump choosing an Exxon Mobil CEO for Secretary of State.

The devil is in the details, and at first glance, it is easy to see why so many people can believe that Bernie actually would have won. He got a great deal of positive media coverage as the underdog early on, especially with Republicans deliberately eschewing attacks on him in favor of attacks on Clinton. His supporters also trended younger and whiter, demographics that tend to be more visible in the media around election time. A highly energized and vocal minority of Sanders supporters dominated social media, helping him win online polls by huge margins.

But at some point, you have to put away the narrative and actually evaluate performance. This happens in sports all the time, especially with hyped up amateur college prospects before they go pro. Big time college players are often surrounded by an aura, a narrative of sorts, which pushes many casual observers to believe their college skills will translate to success on the next level. But professional teams have to evaluate the performance of these amateur players to determine if they can have success as professionals, regardless what the narrative surrounding them in college was. A college player with a lot of hype isnít necessarily going to succeed professionally. In fact, some of the most hyped up prospects have the most underwhelming performances at the next level. In the same vein, we can evaluate Sandersí performance in 2016 and determine whether his platform is ready for the next level. Sanders endorsed a plethora of candidates and initiatives across the country, in coastal states and Rust Belt states. He campaigned for these candidates and initiatives because they represented his platform and his vision for the future of the Democratic Party. In essence, Bernie Sanders was on the 2016 ballot. Letís take a look at how he performed.

After looking at a number of races where sanders supported candidates under perform Hillary Clinton, that author makes a strong closing
If Sanders is so clearly the future of the Democratic Party, then why is his platform not resonating in diverse blue states like California and Colorado, where the Democratic base resides? Why are his candidates losing in the Rust Belt, where displaced white factory workers are supposed to be sympathetic to his message on trade? The key implication Sanders backers usually point to is that his agenda is supposed to not only energize the Democratic base, but bring over the white working class, which largely skews Republican. Universal healthcare, free college, a national $15 minimum wage, and government controlled prescription drug costs are supposed to be the policies that bring back a white working class that has gone conservative since Democrats passed Civil Rights. Sanders spent $40 million a month during the primary, and was largely visible during the general, pushing his candidates and his agenda across the country. The results were not good ó specifically in regards to the white working class. The white working class did not turnout for Feingold in Wisconsin, or for universal healthcare in Colorado. Instead, they voted against Bernieís platform, and voted for regular big business Republicans.

Why did Sanders underperform Clinton significantly throughout 2016 ó first in the primaries, and then with his candidates and initiatives in the general? If Sandersí platform and candidates had lost, but performed better than Clinton, than that would be an indicator that perhaps he was on to something. If they had actually won, then he could really claim to have momentum. But instead, we saw the opposite result: Sandersí platform lost, and lost by much bigger margins than Clinton did. It even lost in states Clinton won big. What does that tell us about the future of the Democratic Party? Well, perhaps we need to acknowledge that the Bernie Sanders platform just isnít as popular as itís made out to be.

Sanders would have been destroyed by trump in the general election and would have done far worse than Hillary Clinton

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #39)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:13 PM

42. Says you.

We would have been no worse off if he had run and lost.

Meanwhile, get used to gagging out the words "President Trump".

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Response to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #42)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:18 PM

44. The facts are on my side

Sanders did poorly on the ballot this cycle compared to Clinton. Facts are good things.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #44)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:17 PM

47. .... Donald Trump is president-elect

Not Bernie Sanders. And definitely not HRC.

That is a fact.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #44)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 04:24 PM

57. Sanders did poorly with Dems in the primary.

 

And Dems clearly thought as a whole that this wasn't an election of change. How'd that work out for us?

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Response to Goblinmonger (Reply #57)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:11 AM

65. When a popular Dem is in the White House, you can't expect the Dem nominee to run on "change."

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #65)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:13 PM

77. Are you going to admit that that was a huge mistake?

 

Because it clearly was.

And, for the record, Bill Clinton told the campaign that they were ignoring the white working class that elected him and it was problematic. Feingold told the campaign that things weren't good in Wisconsin and he needed her help and she had to be here to win the state. Both were basically told to pound sand.

But, hey, just keep pointing fingers and not acutally admit that the campaign was done poorly. That should help in the future.

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Response to Goblinmonger (Reply #77)

Fri Dec 23, 2016, 02:31 AM

81. I think the Clinton campaign should have done more outreach to rural Democrats in swing states.

And, yes, she should have spent more time in WI, MI, etc. It's about outreach and time spent; not the message.

Again, running on "change" wouldn't make any sense and would piss off Clinton's two most important and popular surrogates, Barack and Michelle Obama.

Clinton won among the working class, among those for whom 'the economy' is a top priority, among those most hurt by the recession. If a segment of the *white* working class has much different priorities or desires than the working class as a whole, one need not think long and hard to determine why that might be.

The white backlash that's built over the last 8 years, the FBI's unprecedented last minute interference, voter suppression enabled by the Shelby County v. Holder decision, Russia-Wikileaks, 25+ years of Clinton hate, and a pathetic media (with its ratings-focused obsession with spectacle and made-up controversies, as well as the penchant for pushing false equivalencies in the name of some twisted sense of what constitutes "balance" is a hell of a lot to overcome.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 02:10 PM

41. That would rather depend on who was campaigning for him...

...on who voted for him, and whatever other factors had to be flipped to get Sanders nominated in that alternate timeline. We don't get to know.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:27 PM

49. Yeah pretty much like you said.

Sanders may have done better in the Rust Belt but probably worse in the South, which we lost anyway, besides Virginia.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:33 PM

50. He'd probably have held every state HRC took, and added the Upper Midwest+Iowa and Ohio

 

(depending on the effectiveness of both the Trump smear campaign on him and the effectiveness of his response to it).

But it serves no purpose to speculate because that didn't happen and we need to move forward.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 03:36 PM

51. Bernie would have won Michigan.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Wed Dec 21, 2016, 11:47 PM

62. The issue with Bernie, as well as O'Malley, is that a very different Bernie Sanders or

Martin O'Malley would have been introduced to the voters.

We would have heard all about what miserable human beings they are, complete with their own fake scandals. And possibly even an FBI investigation.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:19 AM

66. What it takes to win in the primaries is different than what it takes to win in the GE.

It's why it's kind of obnoxious that a lot of Clinton supporters automatically dismiss Bernie's chances in the GE with "OMG HE LOST TO HILLARY!!" screeching. In the primaries, staunch support from your party is crucial. Hillary had that, Bernie didn't. But the reality is that staunch party loyalists are likely voting for the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is. In that way, Bernie would likely have retained most of the support Hillary got in the GE.

But while staunch party support gets you through the primaries, it's crossover appeal that cinches the GE. You could argue that Bernie had the edge over Hillary in that department. That's why many, myself included, felt that he was a better GE candidate despite not winning in the primaries.

All that said, it's definitely true that Bernie didn't have the kitchen sink thrown at him the way Hillary did so we have no way of knowing if his crossover appeal would have held up. It's all just speculation.

As for how the election might have been different electorally, it's tough to say. I definitely think Bernie would have done better in MI and WI but he might have lost VA. Neither was ever winning OH(and I say that as an Ohio resident). PA... I'm not not really sure about.

In the end, it's possible that neither would have won. Trump tapped into a very dark part of the electorate and we all underestimated just how many simpletons are out there.

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Response to BigBoss26 (Reply #66)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:47 AM

68. Turnout of the base is important, though.

Republicans voting for Sanders would have been few and far between. Meanwhile, in terms of turnout of the Democratic Party base, Sanders likely would have done worse than Clinton did. In fact, I don't think Sanders would have won nearly as many states--it would have been an electoral college landslide. Of course, as others have pointed out, Bloomberg probably would have run had Sanders and Trump been the nominees. No telling what would have happened in that scenario.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #68)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 08:02 AM

70. Turnout of the base is definitely important. You won't get any argument from me there.

And I certainly think it's fair to say that an argument for Hillary as the nominee is that she'd definitely be starting with a bigger guaranteed bank of support.

But I still think, ultimately, the party loyalists show up for Bernie in the GE. They might have have hemmed and hawed about it a little more but they'd be there in the end. In a way, Trump himself was the biggest guarantee that the base would come out. Trump wasn't just an unqualified candidate, he outright scares sensible voters(and he should). So I think the base would have been there regardless of who got the nomination.

So for me, the question isn't whether or not the base comes out, it's: Was Bernie's crossover appeal real and, if so, would it hold up under Republican attacks? We can't know the answer to this one way or the other but that's the real "what if" when it comes to this particular topic.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 01:39 AM

67. Michigan and Wisconsin

Considering he won the primaries in those states, I think there's a good chance he would have won them in the GE. Alaska perhaps.

He might have done better in some closed primary states, including Pennsylvania, because he might have picked up independents. Johnson and Stein got 1.9% more votes combined in Pennsylvania than they did in 2012 and since Clinton lost PA by.73%, that hurt.

Nationwide, Johnson got more than 3 times as many votes as he did in 2012. Though Stein didn't do as well as Johnson, she also got about 3 times as many votes as she did in 2012.

There have always been 3rd parties and independents. Look how well Perot did in 92 and 96. This time the "others" got a total of 6%. We can stick our noses up and say we don't need those people, but in the swing states, we do.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 02:08 AM

69. Note sure, but I was grateful that Bernie never ran as a third party candidate...

... in the general election. As it turned out, it wouldn't have mattered.

I sometimes wonder if it will happen next time? I hope not, but I'm reminded of Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party of 1912, with a platform of ideas that Democrats later adopted to win their supporters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(United_States,_1912)

The platform's main theme was reversing the domination of politics by business interests, which allegedly controlled the Republican and Democratic parties, alike. The platform asserted that:
To destroy this invisible Government, to dissolve the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmanship of the day.

To that end, the platform called for:

Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings

In the social sphere the platform called for:

A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
Limited the ability of judges to order injunctions to limit labor strikes.
A minimum wage law for women
An eight-hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax

The political reforms proposed included:

Women's suffrage
Direct election of Senators
Primary elections for state and federal nominations

The platform also urged states to adopt measures for "direct democracy", including:

The recall election (citizens may remove an elected official before the end of his term)
The referendum (citizens may decide on a law by popular vote)
The initiative (citizens may propose a law by petition and enact it by popular vote)
Judicial recall (when a court declares a law unconstitutional, the citizens may override that ruling by popular vote)

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Thu Dec 22, 2016, 09:00 AM

72. At a minimum, he wins Hillary states + PA, MI, and WI

He'd probably get FL, OH, IA, and ME-02 as well.

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Response to speaktruthtopower (Original post)

Fri Dec 23, 2016, 01:34 AM

80. He won the Michigan primary

 

by a lot more than 10,000 votes.

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