2014 US Senate Election-Competitive Races

[NPolitics1979]

Last edited Sat Jan 26, 2013, 01:40 AM - Edit history (1)

AK(Begich-D)
Republican challengers will either be Mead Treadwell-R and Joe Miller-R, Miller-R wins the Republican nomination but loses to Begich-D in the November General election by a high single digit margin.
AR(Pryor-D)
Republican challenger will be Mark Darr-R. Pryor-D defeats Darr-R by a high single digit margin.
CO(Udall-D)
Coffman-R running gives Democrats the opportunity to win CO-6 and allows Udall-D to win re-election.
GA(OPEN-R)
Kasim Reed-D vs one of the Rightwing US House Members-R, lets just hope Bob Barr runs as a Libertarian-R.
HI(Schatz-D)
Djou-R is likely to be the sacrificial lamb.
IA(Harkin-D)
Latham-R and King-R should both run in the primary, King-R wins the primary but loses in the general.

[Tx4obama]

1. There are 33 senate seats up in 2014. Dems 20 and GOP 13

Full list on CHART below, in the 'Class 2' column

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classes_of_United_States_Senators#Class_2

[NPolitics1979]

3. It is actually 35

You forgot the special Election in HI(Schatz-D) and SC(Scott-R) both are likely to win.
I am focused on battleground seats.
2013 MA Special-Does Scott Brown-R run??? Worse case scenario is He narrowly defeats Markey-D in the Special Election but in 2014-Brown-R will end up facing Vicky Kennedy-D.
GA-OPEN.
The new US Senator from GA will be more Rightwing than Saxby.

[NPolitics1979]

2. 2014 US Senate Election-Competitive Races.

KY(McConnell-R)
Judd-D wins the primary but loses in the General Election, the key is holding Mitch under 55 percent.
LA(Landrieu-D)
Republican challengers are likely to be one of the Rightwing US House Members. The big question is can Landrieu-D avoid a runoff.
MA(OPEN)
2013 Special Election-The big question is does Brown-R run. If Brown-R runs he defeats Markey-D in the Special Election. Brown-R loses the 2014 US Senate Election to Vicky Kennedy. Markey-D and Lynch-D will seek re-election to their respected Congresional districts.
If Brown-R does not run, Markey-D wins the special election, and will easily win the 2014 US Senate Election.
MI(Levin-D)
If Levin-D runs again-Safe D, If Levin-D retires-Tossup D.
MN(Franken-D) vs Bachmann-R
NH(Shaheen-D) vs Guinta-R
NJ(Lautenberg-D)
Booker-D will be the Democratic nominee and wins the November General Election.
NM(Udall-D) Udall-D would face a tougher race against Sanchez-R but an easier race against Weh-R
NC(Hagan-D) vs one of the Rightwing US House Member.
SD(Johnson-D) vs Rounds-R. If Johnson retires, GOP Takeover, if Johnson-D runs again Tossup-D.
WV(OPEN-D) Senator Elect Shelly Moore Capito-R.

[Tx4obama]

4. I hope Judd runs and wins in the general. I hope Lautenberg decides to retire...

I'd like to see him retire with dignity and have a going-away-party as opposed to running and losing in the primary to Booker (I do want Booker to win the general).

Bachmann should NOT be in The House let alone The Senate.

[KharmaTrain]

7. Markey Can Beat Brown...

I'm not sure why people are so scared of Scotty...he's damaged goods now. Congressman Markey has a long and impressive record and knows how to run a campaign. I think he'll easily beat Brown or any rushpublican they try to run.

Interesting predictions but the teabagger challenges will once again be the wild cards. If the great unhinged nominate more Akins and Murdochs (and that corrupt and inept party is loaded with 'em...like King in IA) we could see Democrats repeating their successes of last year. The key, of course, is turn out and focus...Democrats can't fall asleep in 2014 like they did in 2010...

[NPolitics1979]

8. You are probally right.

We have to make sure the entire MA Democratic party is energized for the next 6 months.
In off year special elections- Democratic turnout tends to be lower than expected.

[karynnj]

13. I think more people may see him for the shallow guy he really is

He always seemed very petty and whined a lot in several incoherent Senate speeches. It was shocking to me because Senate speeches are read and he had staff to write them. This weekend he was incredibly weird.
i
After midnight on Friday, he posted some strange, incoherent posts on his twitter account - where the misspelled word became the seed of the top trending twitter hashtag for nearly a day. In addition, when the BG called to ask if he was running he HUNG UP on them. This pushed the BG and even BH to look at his twitter and facebook postings since losing. While nothing is blatantly wrong, they show someone who really is pretty sullen at times. (One article -http://boston.com/community/blogs/gatekeeper/2013/01/scott_browns_twitter_trouble.html )

This would not matter if there was nothing in his past that this connects to, but in Brown's case there are things like him using foul language at a high school because some students posted things he didn't like about his daughter, who was in American Idol. Not to mention, it sounds like he was drunk in the twitter posts in the middle of the night. This brings back the issue of whether he has an alcohol problem. (In 2012, he brought that on himself by announcing that he pledged on Jan 1 (2012) not to drink until after the election - and he told the press this in April, about a week after a media event at a beer factory where he sampled the beer! Opening the question of why you make that pledge and why you speak of it AFTER you publicly broke it!)

The posts he responded to were not even obnoxious - rather in response to a Brown post that "he was ready", said that they (MA Democrats) were ready to beat him. Certainly it is easy to just ignore them or respond with a link to the recent survey without comment. "Whatever" sounds like a depressed, bored 13 year old. (Especially odd in that this was after enjoying a couple of performances by his daughter - which should have been a happy family event. )

[Tx4obama]

5. What is your projection total for the Senate Dems/Gopers for the 2015 Senate? n/t

[NPolitics1979]

6. 2015 Senate.

53D 47R
Democrats lose WV(Capito-R) and SD(Rounds-R)-Johnson-D retires.
Vulnerable Democratic incumbents in AK(Begich-D),AR(Pryor-D),LA(Landrieu-D) and NC(Hagan-D) win re-election.
Democrats win back MA-assuming Brown-R runs in the 2013 Special Election.
Republicans hold onto GA,KY,and ME.

[NPolitics1979]

9. 2014 US Senate Election- Harkin-IA retirement announcement.

Now that Harkin-IA is planning to retire next year.
Mitch McConnell-KY will be the only class of 1984 US Senator that is likely to remain in office after 1/2015.

Kerry(D-MA) is leaving the US Senate in a couple of months to start his new career as US Secretary of State.
Rockefeller(D-WV) is planning to retire next year.

Capito(R-WV) is Rockefeller(D-WV) likely sucessor.
Regarding Kerry's(D-MA) sucessor- Brown(R-MA) victory in the 2013 Special Election means he will be in the US Senate until 2014, Brown-R is likely to lose re-election again in 2014. Markey(D-MA) victory in 2013 Special Election means- Markey-D will be in the US Senate until he decides to retire.
Harkin's(D-IA) sucessor is likely to be Secretary of Agriculture and former IA Governor Tom Harkin or US Reps Bruce Braley-D or Dave Loesback.

[NPolitics1979]

10. Class of 2015 US Senators.

Democratic Incumbents running for re-election in 2014 that are likely to get re-elected:
AK(Begich-D)-defeats Treadwell-R or Miller-R by a single digit margin. 35D
AR(Pryor-D)-defeats Darr-R or Womack-R by a single digit margin. 36D
CO(Udall-D)-defeats Norton-R or Gardner-R by a high single/low double digit margin. 37D
DE(Coons-D)-defeats a generic Republican by a landslide margin. 38D
HI(Schatz-D)-defeats Lingle-R or Djou-R by a double digit margin. 39D
LA(Landrieu-D)-defeats Cassidy-R,Fleming-R or Landry-R in the open primary or in the runoff. 40D
MN(Franken-D)-defeats Bachmann-R by a double digit margin. 41D
MT(Baucus-D)-defeats a generic Republican by a high single/low double digit margin. 42D
NH(Shaheen-D)-defeats Sununu-R,Lamontagne-R,Guinta-R or Bass-R by a double digit margin. 43D
NM(Udall-D)-defeats Sanchez-R or Berry-R by a double digit margin. 44D
NC(Hagan-D)-defeats Ellmers-R or Foxx-R or McHenry-R by a high single digit margin. 45D
OR(Merkley-D- defeats a generic Republican by a double digit margin. 46D
RI(Reed-D)-defeats a generic Republican by a landslide margin. 47D
VA(Warner-D)-defeats a generic Republican by a landslide margin. 48D
Republican Incumbents running for re-election in 2014 that are likely to get re-elected.
AL(Sessions-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 32R
ID(Risch-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 33R
KS(Roberts-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 34R
KY(McConnell-R)-defeats Judd-D or Lundergran Grimes-D by a high single digit margin. 35R
ME(Collins-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a double digit margin. 36R
NE(Johanns-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 37R
OK(Inhofe-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 38R
SC(Graham-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 39R
SC(Scott-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a double digit margin. 40R
TN(Alexander-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 41R
TX(Cornyn-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 42R
WY(Enzi-R)-defeats a generic Democrat by a landslide margin. 43R
Democratic Incumbents who have not made any announcements.
IL(Durbin-D)- If Durbin-D runs again- he wins re-election by a landslide margin-especially against the worlds greatest deadbeat dad. If Durbin-D retires- Democrats will hold onto the seat. Lt Governor Sheila Simon-D. 49D
MI(Levin-D)- If Levin-D runs agains- he wins re-election by a landslide margin. If Levin-D retires- the race will be a tossup-but the edge going to the Democrats. Democratic nominee will be either Gary Peters-D or Mark Schauer-D, Republican nominee will be John Engler-R or Candice Miller-R. 50D
NJ(Lautenberg-D)-Likely to retire or lose in the primary to Cory Booker-D. Booker-D defeats a generic Republican by a double digit margin. 51D
SD(Johnson-D)-If Johnson-D runs again- he will be in a tossup race against Rounds-R, If Johnson-D retires- Lean Republican Takeover. Rounds-R defeats Herseth Sandlin-D by a high single digit margin. 44R
Republican Incumbents who have not made any announcements.
MS(Cochran-R)-If Cochran-R runs again- he wins re-election by a landslide margin. If Cochran-R retires- Republican hold.- US Reps Nunnelle-R,Harper-R or Palazzo-R. 45R
Democratic Incumbents that are retiring.
IA(Harkin-D) Braley-D vs King-R, Braley-D wins by a high single/low double digit margin. 52D
WV(Rockefeller-D)- Rahall-D vs Capito-R, Capito-R wins by a double digit margin. 46R
Republican Incumbent retiring.
GA(Chambliss-R)- Purdue-R or Price-R,etc. 47R

Wildcard is MA, If Markey-D wins the 2013 Special Election he wins re-election in 2014 by a landslide margin. 53D
Brown-R has a 50-50 chance of winning the 2013 Special Election but he will be rejected again in 2014.

Red State Democratic incumbents from the deep south- Pryor-AR and Landrieu-LA will win re-election along with Hagan-NC.
Out west- Begich-AK wins re-election. Johnson-SD if he decides to run again- will narrowly defeat Rounds-R.

[CBHagman]

11. King in Iowa?

You mean Steve King?

I know it's early days yet, but the mere mention of Steve King together with an open Senate seat is stomach-turning.

[NPolitics1979]

12. US Senate Commitee chairs-1/2015

Committee chairs Rockefeller(WV),Harkin(IA),Levin(MI),and Johnson(SD) are leaving next year.
Commerce(Rockefeller-WV)
Next in Line-Kerry-MA will leave the US Senate next month or so, Boxer-CA chairs the Environment, Nelson-FL chairs Aging, Cantwell-WA chairs Indian Affairs, Lautenberg-NJ will be retiring, Pryor-AR is likely to chair Commerce.
Health(Harkin-IA)
Next in Line-Mikulski-MD chairs Appropriation, Murray-WA chairs Budget, Sanders-VT chairs the Veterans, Casey-PA is likely to chair the Health.
Armed Services(Levin-MI)
Next in Line-Reed-RI is also next in line to chair Banking, Nelson-FL is likely to chair Aging or Commerce, McCaskill-MO is next in line to chair Armed Services after Reed-RI.
Banking(Johnson-SD)
After Reed-RI, Schumer-NY chairs Rules, Menendez-NJ chairs Foriegn Relations, Brown-OH is next in line to chair Banking after Reed-RI.

[karynnj]

14. Nelson would likely get Commerce

Aging is important for FL, but Commerce is considered one of the most important committee, with Budget, Appropriations, Foreign Relations, Armed Services and Finance. I suspect that Nelson gets it. If not Nelson, Cantwell very likely would take Commerce.

I don't think Boxer will give up the Environment committee as she opted not to do so to get Foreign Relations. Environment could be very important if Obama, who spoke of it in his IA and with the greenest SOS ever, pushes climate change legislation.

On Health, both appropriations and Budget are powerful committees, so Mikulski and Murray may keep what they have. I think it would be incredible to have my Senator, Sanders chair the HELP committee. He was instrumental in getting at least one of the more progressive things added to ACA - the community health centers.

Reed really could have an awesome choice. I would suspect that the West Point graduate would take the Armed Services Chair. He could be an incredible partner to Hagel in revamping the military.

That also would mean that Schumer, representing NY (including NYC and Wall Street) could chair Banking. (Yes, I know that DU would in general not welcome this, but if Schumer wants it, I would guess that it is his.)

[NPolitics1979]

15. Reed(RI) has to wait to see if Levin(MI) retires next year.

Johnson(SD) is more likely to lose re-election if he does not retire.
Reed(RI) takes Armed Services if Levin(MI) retires or Banking if Levin(MI) stays.
Schumer(NY) taking Banking means Rules goes to Durbin(IL) -assuming he does not retire or Pryor(AR).
Sanders(VT) getting HELP means Brown(OH) takes Veterans.
Nelson(FL) taking Commerce means Aging goes to Casey(PA)
Looking at the Republican ranking member.
Burr(NC) takes Intelligence or Keeps Veterans.
Risch(ID) is next in line to chair Intelligence. Who also is the top GOP on small business.
Coats(IN) takes Intelligence.