Scott Brown(R-MA) 2013/2014 MA US Senate & MA Governor.

[NPolitics1979]

Last edited Thu Jan 31, 2013, 05:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Scott Brown(R-MA) is slightly favored to win the 2013 US Senate Special Election over Ed Markey(D-MA) due to name recognition, once the campaigning starts, Markey-D could end up narrowly defeating Brown-R. The winner of the 2013 Special Election will have to face a full term in 2014.
If Markey-D becomes US Senator this year- he wins re-election by a double digit margin over a generic Republican like Kerry Healey-R.
If Brown-R becomes US Senator again this year, he will be Democrats number 1 target for 2014.
With the help of MA other US Senator Liz Warren, the Democratic nominee will unseat Defeat Brown-R in 2014.
If Brown-R skips the US Senate Race but runs for Governor in 2014 and gets elected, wins re-election in 2018, runs for POTUS in 2020 or 2024. or just serves one term like Mitt.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. Having observed brown's 2012 campaign

Not to worry. He is a jerk and a loser.

[merrily]

4. I don't think complacency is the way to go.

Warren beat him by only 5 points and (1) that was a Presidential election, not a special election; (2) Warren had over $40 million to play with ( Ihink Markey has $3 million right now); (3) name recognition cannot be dismissed; (4) Massachusetts media cannot get enough of Brown; (5) Markey may be vulnerable on the residency issue, which has been challenged before and which Brown has already raised; and (6) Markey is not as strong a candidate as Warren..

[TroyD]

12. Warren beat Brown by 8 points

But I agree with you that the Democrats would be foolish to underestimate Brown.

[Yavin4]

2. Scott Brown is the Mass. version of W n/t

[merrily]

3. Yes. And Dummya was elected Governor and President

No one should take the special election for granted.

[Yavin4]

10. Precisely.

Never underestimate Americans' love of the unsophisticated dullard.

[graham4anything]

5. Brown has 3 chances to win once. He only needs one win. He can lose twice, win once.

Brown has nothing to lose by losing now.

Because he keeps anyone else out of thoughts by still being available.

Oh what a tangled web we weave...

BTW, Markey is like Mondale in the Wellstone aftermath.

and dangerous is comparing someone to W
who used what image was created for him to fool the public
he was NOT stupid
he was NOT a man of intergirty
and he did as planned

if Brown is like W, then Brown already won.

[NewJeffCT]

6. People underestimate Brown at their own peril

He's been through two tough races in only a few years, while Markey has never had a competitive race in nearly 40 years in the house.

Yes, Coakley was a lousy candidate, but Brown was also running in the most progressive state in America. And, he only lost to dream candidate Elizabeth Warren by 7 points in a presidential election year where Obama won Massachusetts by over 23 points. So, 16% of the Obama voters voted for Brown, or 1 in 6. (yes, I know it's not exactly that percentage - I'm a bit run down this morning and wanted it quick & easy.)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. We should acknowledge the sexism inherent in the MA electorate. Were Warren a man, she would've

won by a larger margin.

And as I've said many times over, if Scott Brown wins in a state that is turning MORE, not less, BLUE, then I blame the Democratic Party. If the party can't field better candidates, it's their fault! And the fault of MA voters who are being duped by this scumbag.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

16. I didn't say it. There have been discussions about MA electorate unwilling to elect women for

statewide office. Hell, Rachel Maddow devoted an entire segment on why it is MA has never elected a woman to statewide office (this was before the election). Are you denying this fact? I don't have to be from MA to pay attention.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. She didn't use the word "sexist," but she did point out that there had never been a woman elected

to statewide office. I'm am definitely not accusing you of being sexist. I don't know you, and you seem like a cool person.

Why are you attacking me constantly on these issues? There were discussions about this issue right here on DU. In fact, the day after Liz Warren won, Rachel was going on about how she only won by 8% while Obama beat Mittens by more than 20%. I didn't make these things up.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. I said we should acknowledge "sexism inherent in the MA electorate". I was not calling voters

sexists. I was suggesting that there is sexism inherent in the electorate because it was based not only on Rachel's commentary, but because I remembered some discussions that took place here on DU before the election. I was not directing my comments towards you.

She has raised these issues several times:

(1) MA has never elected a woman to statewide office (a segment that aired *before* the election)
(2) Warren only won by 8% (a segment that aired *after* the election)

Though she didn't use the word sexism, her tone and commentary basically suggested that there is sexism apparent because MA voters seem to have an issue electing women to *statewide* offices. Not congressional offices. Statewide offices.

I've been trying to find the YouTube video. If I find it, I'll post here.

As for the Cowan issue, I corrected myself twice.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. Here you go...

Here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barbara-lee/elizabeth-warren_b_977647.html

And here:

Despite the Bay State's liberal reputation, voters here have struggled to elect women at the top of the ticket. Throughout its history, Massachusetts has only sent four women to the U.S. House of Representatives -- as Rachel Maddow has pointed out, that's compared to 461 men. We have never elected a woman Governor or U.S. Senator in her own right (Lieutenant Governor Jane Swift became Acting Governor from 2001-2003 after Governor Paul Cellucci resigned to accept an ambassadorship, but Swift was not elected).

Last year, when Attorney General Martha Coakley ran for the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in a special election, it looked like we might break through the long-standing gender barrier. Although no one imagined that a Republican could win Kennedy's seat -- let alone a Republican who had posed nude for Cosmopolitan -- Coakley lost the race to now-Senator Brown.

Massachusetts currently has the lowest number of women in its state legislature in 14 years, 36 in the 160-member House, and 11 in the 40-member Senate. Today, the only women holding statewide office are Coakley, who won reelection as Attorney General later in 2010, U.S. Representative Niki Tsongas, and State Auditor Suzanne Bump.

Here's the transcript from Rachel's show, referenced above:

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44534299/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/t/rachel-maddow-show-wednesday-september/#.UQrPe6U4Q20

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. People underestimate Markey at their own peril.

He's not one of these cowardly, soft-spoken Democrats. The more people get to know about him, the more they'll like him.

[NewJeffCT]

11. I agree that he's likeable

and liberal. So was Barbara Kennelly in CT - she had been a long-time Congresswoman from CT and had never had a tough race. However, when she ran for governor against Republican John Rowland, she did not do well in the close race and ended up losing by a near record margin of 28%.

And, CT is a state where women have done well in elections.

[WI_DEM]

9. I still wish President Obama could find cabinet members without taking them

out of the senate. Brown has a 50-50 shot at this, and we need every seat. Sure if he wins he'll be our top target in 2014, but again we won't have presidential turnout numbers or Obama on the top of the ticket to drive out voters.

[Cosmocat]

17. i don't get it either

They have obstructed him 100 percent on EVERYTHING he has tried to do.

Chryst, he nominates a friggen REPUBLICAN for SOD, and they are throwing fits over it. Hagel is not a fire breathing conservative jackass, but it's still a fricken republican.

Except Kerry - who they could not possibly pass fast enough./

Given their tendency to operate only in concern for politics, there is no mystery why.

[TroyD]

13. PPP poll this morning shows Brown 3 points ahead of Markey

This is a much better poll for Markey than the ones we were seeing last month that had Brown way ahead, but it's still disturbing that Brown has even a small lead.

Hopefully Markey will be able to eliminate that lead completely during the campaign.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/31/1183499/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Patrick-taps-Cowan-and-PPP-finds-a-tossup-in-Massachusetts

[NPolitics1979]

23. The biggest question is who can defeat Brown-R in 2014.

The Top Tier Democrats are Deval, current US House Members (Markey,McGovern,Capuano,or Lynch)
Deval is looking to see what Hillary or Biden's plans are.
None of the members of the US House Delegation wanted to give up their US House Seat in 2012 during Brown's first time as an incumbent.
That leaves Setti Warren.