Kim Jong-un, George W. Bush and pre-emptive wars of choice:

[hedgehog]

If Bush could drag the US into a wanton 10 year war with so little discussion or fuss, what makes us think Kim Jong-un won't?

[sharp_stick]

1. Because it's suicidal

he likes the trappings of power and privilege that he was born into just as much as shrubbo does.

The big difference here is that shrub knew he faced zero personal threat to those trappings whereas if Jong-Un launches an attack against the south what they think of as major cities would be smoking craters within hours.

[hedgehog]

3. I have to wonder about the political situation inside North Korea;

is going to war Kim's path to retaining power? If he doesn't go to war, does he face a coup?

[sharp_stick]

4. North Korea is still a black box

we really don't know much of anything regarding it's internal workings. The mere threat of going to war has been a staple of that region since the Korean war ended and it's quite possible that he is rattling the saber in order to keep his Generals in line.

I would think he faces much more of a coup threat if a war is launched rather than the other way around. The only people living in comfort are the elite's running the military. These leaders know how futile an assault would be, the Chinese have sent a lot of signals that they're getting a little annoyed at the bluster.

Of course it's just an educated guess. It's just as possible that Kim is simply even more nuts than his old man and grand dad..

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. I dunno

I kind of suspect that- if he is at least somewhat rational- he realizes that attacking the US and/or South Korea will result in him being killed or, at the very least, overthrown. I suppose that he might, if he wants to go out in a blaze of glory but I don't think he belongs to the "72 virgins club"

[Octafish]

5. You put a claw on it, hedgehog.

THAT is the reason why the USA should not invade innocent countries pre-emptively. Sets the wrong example, among other things.

[Aristus]

6. Um...let me guess...

Wrong when Kim does it; okay when the USA does it...

[erpowers]

7. Different Situations

George W. Bush and Kim Jong-Un are two totally different situations. In the case of George W. Bush, there was not anyone, any country, or any group outside of the United States of America that could have stopped President Bush and the United States military. There are many countries and groups, first among them the United States, that could and would stop Kim Jong-Un from launching a pre-emptive war.

The United States, for the most part, had the money, military power, and the ability to launch a pre-emptive strike against just about any country it wanted to attack. Beyond that the United States had the political power, the military power, and the financial power to repel any retaliatory attack launched against it as a result of launching a pre-emptive strike against another nation. The United States has veto power at the United Nations. In addition, it seems to have a great deal of pull at both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Furthermore, it, once again, has a very large and powerful military and a fairly large amount of money.

North Korea, on the other hand, does not have those same advantages. North Korea is no where near as powerful as the United States within the United Nations. North Korea also lacks the United States' power in both the IMF and the World Bank. North Korea's military, along with the rest of the world's militaries, is no where near as large and powerful and America's military. Finally, North Korea does not have the financial power of the United States.

So, if North Korea launched a pre-emptive strike against any nation, especially South Korea or the United States, things would go badly for the North Koreans very shortly after the attack was launched. If they attacked the United States or South Korea they would most likely have war declared on them by the United States, South Korea, and much of the world. North Korea would then most likely be defeated in a short period of time. After the defeat, Kim Jong-Un would be removed from power and possibly jailed.

I am pretty sure Kim Jong-Un is well aware of what would happen if he lead his country to attack any other country. As a result, I am pretty sure he will not launch a pre-emptive strike against another nation.

[davidpdx]

8. Yes, you are correct

While in the first round of fighting the North would be able to shell the Seoul it would get ugly after that.

I just posted a thread over in the GE about B-2s making a round trip flight from Missouri to South Korea on a training mission. They flew 35,000 miles without landing (I'm guessing they were refueled somewhere over the ocean).