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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:17 PM

Before the "poll panic" sets in, might we have a word?

Please do not misinterpret the meaning of the next few paragraphs. While I firmly believe that President Obama is going to improve upon both his popular and electoral vote margins of 2008, I also know that the worst thing that can happen in a campaign is complacency. For proof of this, just ask "President Dewey".

Many recent polls have shown bain romney gaining on President Obama, even if we discount the faux "news" poll that must have been conducted in RNC headquarters. I know that as sure as I have grey hair and an ass that's WAY too big, many DUers will use this as an opportunity to go into quick panic mode and follow up with predictions that the sky is falling and of our impending doom.

First however, let's have a brief history lesson of polling in every non-stolen election since 1972, when I was 17 on election day and had busted the aforementioned way too big ass trying to get George McGovern elected president of the United States. If I am a point or 2 off, or mention the wrong month, it is a small fault of memory, not any attempt to make up history to prove a false point. I'll leave that to the republicans.

In April of 1972, I saw a Harris poll that showed George McGovern within 6 points of richard nixon and closing. In November he lost a 49 state landslide. This is the only election in my memory where the opposing candidate got the bounce from a convention.

In 1976, Jimmy Cater emerged from the Democratic convention with a 33 point lead. Around Labor Day, the lead was 15. Carter won by about 3% and didn't carry one state in the west.

In 1980 polling showed a very close Carter/reagan race just a couple of weeks before the election. reagan won with a 10 point popular vote margin and carried about 45 states. Many Democrats believe that Carter conceded so early (around 8:30PM EDT) so he could get off of the stage before the public realized the size of his defeat. Many Democrats also believe that that early concession also inspired Democratic voters to stay home, costing them the Senate and increasing our losses in the House.

In 1984, Mondale/Ferraro emerged from the convention very close to reagan/bush, even leading by 2 points in one poll (I think Harris). Mondale Ferraro lost in a 49 state landslide.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis led by 17 after the Democratic convention and by 12 when the republican convention opened. He lost by about 8% and bush sr. got 400+ electoral votes after a very dirty bush campaign and a very inept Dukakis campaign.

In 1992, there was early speculation that Bill Clinton would come in 3rd. He won by 5+% and 370 electoral votes.

In 1996, a poll that showed bob dole within 6 points of Bill Clinton had some horse's patoots in the media speculating about a "downward spiral" for Clinton. Clinton improved upon both his 1992 popular and electoral vote margins in a race that was never really in doubt. This is actually the election that I believe 2012 will most resemble.

In 2008, mcsame/palin(comparison) emerged from their convention with a small lead that lasted well into September. President Obama won by about 7% in the popular vote and won 365 electoral votes.

My point in writing this is that polls this early, and maybe well into October, mean NOTHING! Let's bust our humps to get this President re-elected, but let's not get our shorts in a wad.

Can you think of ANY non-combat or life threatened decision or action of yours that was done in a state of panic that was actually a good one?

This was just my 2 cents, and quite possibly overpriced at that!

PEACE!

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Before the "poll panic" sets in, might we have a word? (Original post)
MarianJack Apr 2012 OP
freshwest Apr 2012 #1
MarianJack Apr 2012 #2
Jackpine Radical Apr 2012 #3
MarianJack Apr 2012 #6
gateley Apr 2012 #4
MarianJack Apr 2012 #7
gateley Apr 2012 #10
MarianJack Apr 2012 #12
gateley Apr 2012 #14
MarianJack Apr 2012 #16
Tx4obama Apr 2012 #19
gateley Apr 2012 #45
Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #5
MarianJack Apr 2012 #8
Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #9
MarianJack Apr 2012 #11
PSPS Apr 2012 #13
MarianJack Apr 2012 #15
Hippo_Tron Apr 2012 #48
tblue37 Apr 2012 #17
MarianJack Apr 2012 #22
DallasNE Apr 2012 #18
MarianJack Apr 2012 #21
caseymoz Apr 2012 #20
MarianJack Apr 2012 #23
caseymoz Apr 2012 #24
Flying Squirrel Apr 2012 #25
MarianJack Apr 2012 #30
great white snark Apr 2012 #26
MarianJack Apr 2012 #31
Cosmocat Apr 2012 #27
MarianJack Apr 2012 #32
Cosmocat Apr 2012 #35
Dawson Leery Apr 2012 #38
glowing Apr 2012 #28
MarianJack Apr 2012 #33
bemildred Apr 2012 #29
MarianJack Apr 2012 #34
amb123 Apr 2012 #36
MarianJack Apr 2012 #37
Grateful for Hope Apr 2012 #39
MarianJack Apr 2012 #41
Taverner Apr 2012 #40
MarianJack Apr 2012 #42
Taverner Apr 2012 #43
MarianJack Apr 2012 #46
Liberal_Stalwart71 Apr 2012 #44
MarianJack Apr 2012 #47

Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:20 PM

1. Good warning. Thanks!

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Response to freshwest (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:24 PM

2. Your welcome, freshwest.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:25 PM

3. Yes, I can.

"Can you think of ANY decision or action of your that was done in a state of panic that was actually a good one?"

Getting my ass under cover when an NVA machine gun opened fire on our patrol was a very good idea, made without a lot of rational thought.

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Response to Jackpine Radical (Reply #3)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:27 PM

6. you know, Jackpine Radical,...

...I'm going to edit that to say any non-combat decision or action.

BTW, thank you for your service!

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:25 PM

4. K&R

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Response to gateley (Reply #4)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:30 PM

7. Thanks, gately.

BTW, pardon me if this is a dumb question, but is your screen name based of the Character from "12 O'clock High"? Just curious.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #7)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:06 PM

10. No -- it's my last name. Never knew there was a character in the movie with that name! Probably

spelled it wrong, though.

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Response to gateley (Reply #10)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:23 PM

12. The character was played by Hugh Marlow (spelling?) and...

...at early in the movie Gen Savage (Gregory Peck) tells him that he has a mile wide yellow streak on his back and assigns him to "The Leper Colony" with a crew of all the screw ups in the squadron. By the end of the movie he's one of the men that Savage relies on the most.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #12)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:42 PM

14. Interesting -- thanks!! nt

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Response to gateley (Reply #14)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:02 AM

16. You're welcome.

PEACE!

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Response to gateley (Reply #14)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:34 AM

19. Hugh Marlowe played the rôle of Lt. Col. Ben Gately

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Response to Tx4obama (Reply #19)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 09:39 PM

45. Thanks! It's a name you rarely hear so it's extra surprising to know it was a character

in a movie.

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:26 PM

5. k/r

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #5)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:31 PM

8. Thanks, Dawson Leery.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #8)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:56 PM

9. 54%-44%.

How does that sound?

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #9)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:19 PM

11. Actually, pretty darn good!

I was thinking on the order of 8 to 10% and 380 to 400 EVs.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:40 PM

13. More succinctly: National polls are always meaningless in our EV system.

Only state-by-state polls mean anything in our Electoral College system.

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Response to PSPS (Reply #13)

Fri Apr 20, 2012, 11:57 PM

15. This is true.

However, the popular vote loser has only "won" four times in our history, and 2 of those times, 1876 & 2000, the results stank to high heavens.

PEACE!

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Response to PSPS (Reply #13)

Sun Apr 22, 2012, 08:00 PM

48. They're only meaningless when it's a very close election

If somebody has a consistent and wide enough lead in the national polls, it's basically a given that they will carry enough swing states to win the electoral college.

When it's neck and neck, such as 2000 and 2004, the electoral college is far more important to look at.

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:10 AM

17. The problem is that the Republicans have so many different vote stealing and vote

suppressing mechanisms in place now that these polls can be used to make it seem plausible if they steal the presidential and several House and Senate elections in November. If the polls are sufficiently favorable to Obama, that makes the theft harder to get away with, but if they have several months' worth of polls showing a tight race or an adantage to Romney, then they won't have any trouble getting the public to swallow a stolen election.

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Response to tblue37 (Reply #17)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:47 AM

22. Election stealing is a BIG concern.

This is one of the reasons that I'm strongly advocating having the proper ids and whatever these bastards demand in these Fing laws.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:23 AM

18. When A Candidate Becomes The "Presumptive Nominee"

Doesn't that candidate always get a bounce because people unite behind that candidate?

Your points are well taken too because both candidates will get a post-convention bounce. About the 2nd set of polls after Labor Day is about where I would start paying close attention. (The 1st set will be the benchmark).

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #18)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:46 AM

21. That's usually a pretty good timetable.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:45 AM

20. Some information about polls pollsters don't tell you.

You know when they give the error, plus or minus three percent, six percent, have you ever wondered what actually means?

It means there's a 95 percent certainty the poll will be within the margin of error. This percentage presumes that all scientifically valid procedures are followed, and assumptions (such as cellphone users not having different opinions from landliners) are accurate, you can count on the poll being within the margin of error 19 out of 20 times.

And wildly wrong 1 in 20 times!

We live in an imperfect world. So imperfect, we can't tell how imperfect we are.

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Response to caseymoz (Reply #20)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:50 AM

23. And the wildly wrong...

...almost always favors the rethugs. GEE, isn't that amazing?

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #23)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:52 AM

24. That's explained by the "scientific procedure" part. nt

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 05:00 AM

25. The sky is falling

 

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Response to Flying Squirrel (Reply #25)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:14 AM

30. Fortunately, the sky falling...

...should be NO threat to a Flying Squirrel!

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 07:06 AM

26. K&R

A much needed post MarianJack. Thank you.

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Response to great white snark (Reply #26)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:15 AM

31. Thank you, great white snark.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 07:58 AM

27. While it might make us feel better between now and then

BO was NEVER going to run away with this election.

IMO, given the way the republicans have effectively carved up the country, and the "liberal media" he probably maxed out his margin in 2008. I think if the economy remains in at least its slow recovery and there are not major security issues, he will win by that margin or a little less.

But, people got fooled by the republican primary into think the media would call things based in REALITY.

Now that Romney has pretty much wrapped it up, the game resets to normal standards where the R gets to say and do whatever ridiculous thing he or she wants and it is excused or not even covered, and the D has to spend two months explaining how he does not hate the country because he does not wear a flagpin.

It is going to be close, and the real battle here is to cut the margin the house a bit and SOMEHOW keep the senate.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #27)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:20 AM

32. Your point, Cosmocat,...

...certainly reinforces the fact that WE have to be the media this year.

I know many expect the race to be tight but I believe that the President will improve his margins over 2008. Up here in Maine, olympia snowe's retirement helps us, even with the likelyhood that we'll elect a D leaning Independent. I believe the house is in play.

You and I have 2 different perceptions. I think we have to ACT as though yours is correct and HOPE that mine is.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #32)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:28 AM

35. Fair enough

either way, ACTION is certainly required ...

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #32)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 01:33 PM

38. The house is certainly in play.

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 08:33 AM

28. Many people aren't even paying a lick of attention yet. They are called in a poll

 

and are asked if they are for Obama or Mittens... Many haven't seen all his richie rich gaffes and outright lies he tells about the President.

When you tell people about the dog on the roof and few Bain stories, they didn't know that about that guy and they are horrified normally... If you really want to get their eyeballs popping, you tell them that he's a Mormon and his family ran away to Mexico so they could keep up their polygamy ways... his own father was born in Mexico....

There is so many ick moments for this out of touch A-hole, I don't think people will want to elect him. Honestly, he can't even go into a local brewery and enjoy a beer with the good folk.

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Response to glowing (Reply #28)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:22 AM

33. bain romney...

...is one of the least likeable nominees I have ever seen.

The contant out of touch gaffes by he and his entire family make me say WOW!

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 10:21 AM

29. Well done Sir.

All polls before October are empty wind, and most of those after too.
K&R

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Response to bemildred (Reply #29)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:23 AM

34. Always...

...look at the internals of the poll.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:30 AM

36. No matter if you're ahead 20 points in the polls, you must campaign like you're 20 points behind.

Take nothing for granted. That's how you win.

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Response to amb123 (Reply #36)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 11:37 AM

37. True, amb123.

I remember very few candidates running harder than Bill Clinton in 1996.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 03:23 PM

39. Adding a K&R

Well said.

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Response to Grateful for Hope (Reply #39)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 06:52 PM

41. Thanks, grateful for Hope.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 03:46 PM

40. Allow me to retort (just a little)

 

I agree with you however, since the 80s conventions have become much more skilled, scripted and focused. Every word is choreographed, every light fine tuned - and as a result since the 80s conventions have only registered bumps on the radar.

Of course, if the GOP was to be a brokered one (too bad it isn't) it could have been fun...

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Response to Taverner (Reply #40)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 06:57 PM

42. Yes, choreographed conventions reflect that...

...the republicans don't want another 1976 with the open defiance of Ford by the reaganites and the near physical confrontation of a sitting Vice-President by a right wing nut and the Democrats don't want another 1972 circular firing squad that resulted in our nominee giving a great speech that nobody saw since he spoke around 2:30AM EST.

Of course, choreography didn't stop the rethugs from having a disastrous convention in 1992.

BTW, yes, a brokered bloodbath for the rethugs WOULD have been fun to watch.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #42)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 07:47 PM

43. PEACE INDEED!!!!

 

I am sick and fucking tired of all this WAR!!!!

Jesus fuck!?!?!

Seriously, war is getting old.

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Response to Taverner (Reply #43)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 10:35 PM

46. My father,...

...who is a true bastard but served honorably in both WWII and the Korean War, was passionately opposed to the Vietnam war from the first shot fired. He always said that he served in 2 wars so that his 2 sons wouldn't have to.

The republicans would like us all to believe that war is like a Sgt. Rock comic book. A;; of the WWII vets in my family (and there were A LOT) thought that war SUCKED. They were against vietnam as much as my father was.

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Original post)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 09:02 PM

44. No panic here at all. Not only is it way too early...

 

R-Money is benefitting from wrapping up the nomination. He's getting a small bump from that. The story that is not being told is if Obama is so awful then why isn't R-Money mopping the floor with him?!? Ask yourselves that. Shouldn't Mittens be way ahead!?!?

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #44)

Sat Apr 21, 2012, 10:39 PM

47. No panic from me, either, but...

...many DUers, I suspect younger members, do have a tendency to over-react to polls.

Old fuds like me know that early in the year polls are, as Col. Potter used to say on "MASH", horse hockey!

PEACE!

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