HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » NJ Senate Projection (Rev...

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 03:03 PM

NJ Senate Projection (Revised): Booker 61.5%-Lonegan 36.9%

Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2013, 11:40 PM - Edit history (1)

Edit, 10/16/13 - Boy, did I miss this one. The worst case scenario turned out to be closest to the outcome.

Since my previous projection, new polls have been released for the Booker-Lonegan NJ Senate special election. These new polls have resulted in a slight downgrade of Bookerís margin. Still, he is the prohibitive favorite and, barring some currently unfathomable disaster, will be the new junior senator from New Jersey.

I have constructed three basic scenarios in an attempt to illustrate the fluidity of this race. The first is based on the adjusted average of public polling and on previous election returns in New Jersey. This scenario is the basis for the mainline projection of Booker 61.5%-Lonegan 36.9%.

The second is a best case scenario, in which Booker performs at the absolute maximum of his polling. This is the least likely of all three scenarios, with Booker winning by a gargantuan 71.3%-27.1% margin and carrying every county in the state.

The third is a worst case scenario, in which Lonegan performs at the absolute maximum of his polling. Here, Booker defeats Lonegan 55.3%-43.0% and wins 13 counties. Some recent polls have made this scenario seem increasingly possible.

The good news, of course, is that Booker wins convincingly in all three scenarios.


Blue - Booker, Red - Lonegan, Gray - Tossup

Booker wins 13 of New Jerseyís counties (Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Passaic, Salem, and Union) in all three scenarios. These counties form the core of Bookerís support; even in his worst case scenario, he carries them by a collective margin of 25.5 points.

On the other end of the spectrum, Lonegan carries five counties (Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean, Sussex, and Warren) in all but his worst scenario. In his best scenario, he carries them by 20.8 point margin.

This leaves three counties (Cape May, Monmouth, and Somerset) where the outcome is somewhat less certain. Only Somerset appears relatively secure for Booker; he is projected to win here by 11.4. The current projection has Booker winning these three counties, as a whole, by only 3.6 points, with both Cape May and Monmouth being won by less than a single percentage point. Lonegan victories in these counties, especially Somerset, would point to a much smaller margin of victory for Booker than what the forecast suggests.

In short, the strength of Bookerís showing in Somerset will likely serve as a good indicator of his strength statewide.

This is likely my last projection for the race. If Iím wrong now, Iím wrong for good.

10 replies, 3460 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply NJ Senate Projection (Revised): Booker 61.5%-Lonegan 36.9% (Original post)
nyquil_man Oct 2013 OP
Mz Pip Oct 2013 #1
DCPSR Oct 2013 #2
gopiscrap Oct 2013 #3
DCPSR Oct 2013 #4
gopiscrap Oct 2013 #5
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #9
DCPSR Oct 2013 #6
Yavin4 Oct 2013 #7
Stuart G Oct 2013 #8
nyquil_man Oct 2013 #10

Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 03:24 PM

1. A win is a win.

though how 36% could vote for that lunatic Lonegan is beyond me.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 07:58 PM

2. 12-14 point win

I think that Booker wins by 12-14 points. That's what consistent polling shows.

Here is a running list of all election polls

http://www.reddit.com/r/ElectionPolls/

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DCPSR (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:01 PM

3. welcome to DU

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to gopiscrap (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:12 PM

4. Thanks

Thanks. Glad to be here. Excited to get involved.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DCPSR (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:19 PM

5. Your welcome...hope you can teach us and learn from us

and that we will have moments where we laugh together!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DCPSR (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 10:01 PM

9. I wouldn't call the polling in this race consistent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_special_election_lonegan_vs_booker-3938.html#polls

Booker's lead runs anywhere from +10 to +35. It may very well be that Booker winds up performing at the low end of that range. I've accounted for that in the OP.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:24 PM

6. Gotta laugh

Last edited Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:58 PM - Edit history (1)

For today's politics. Only way to stay sane.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:28 PM

7. It's truly sad that Lonegan is getting almost 40% in a state like NJ

really sad

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to nyquil_man (Original post)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:41 PM

8. Booker will get more than 70 percent...People are very very mad. At the Republicans Party

They will take it out on the Republicans. Don't be surprised if he gets 75 percent. Far more than anyone could have ever expected..
Here is a chance to vote against the Republicans. It is clear and simple. Forget the polls. Many people who are Republicans will vote Democrat for the first time ever. Many Republicans will stay home. That is what I believe

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Stuart G (Reply #8)

Tue Oct 15, 2013, 10:06 PM

10. I will be incredibly (and pleasantly) surprised if he gets 70%. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread