If Obama had never become president, what would U.S. foreign policy look like today?
By Adil E. Shamoo
Updated January 8, 2014
Adil E. Shamoo is an associate fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies, a senior analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus, and the author of: Equal Worth — When Humanity Will Have Peace. His email is ashamoo@som.umaryland.edu.
President Barack Obama's foreign policy over the past six years has come under attack from progressives and conservatives alike. From the progressive point of view, there is much to criticize: the killing of civilians by drones, excessive surveillance here and abroad in the name of national security, supporting corrupt regimes when it suits. For this and more, I have opposed Mr. Obama's foreign policy. But, in the early days of the new year, it might be good to take a moment to recognize that however disappointing President Obama's policies may be, it could have been a lot worse if any of his key opponents — Republican or Democrat — were sitting in the White House today.
If a Republican were president — say Sen. John McCain, who lost to Obama in 2008, or Mitt Romney, who failed to unseat him in 2012 — he would have found a way to keep as many as 30,000 American combat troops in Iraq, making Iraq a violent client state rather than the distant disaster it is today. Troops would continue coming home in coffins, and Iraq would feel the wrath of continued air strikes and raids. If Hillary Clinton had won the primary in 2008 and became president, she would have rallied to keep combat troops in Iraq, too — perhaps only half as many as President McCain. But backlash from continued occupation — no matter the numbers — would be persistent and severe.
If a Republican or Ms. Clinton were president, American troops would still be in Afghanistan, but a higher number of them than the current 50,000 troops there, with slightly reduced numbers for decades to come. Significant numbers of American troops would have continued to suffer casualties monthly.
Meanwhile, the Syrian crisis may or may not have been averted under a different president. But if a Republican were in the White House, American troops would likely be in Syria right now and President Bashar Assad and his goons toppled from power. This would have pleased many Americans, including some liberals who see Syria as a humanitarian disaster in which intervention cannot be avoided.
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Hypotheticals are just nonsense, it's navel gazing. Anyone can hypothesize anything. That doesn't make it true. If this guy is such an expert, he should have dealt with facts. It's obvious that he's no fan of Hillary, so he's trying to make dire predictions about something that he has zero proof that would have happened.
