HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Election Dashboard....Fou...

Tue Oct 7, 2014, 10:10 PM

Election Dashboard....Four Weeks To Go and Here is Where it All Stands

Four weeks to go and here it where it stands...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/10/election-2014-dashboard-new-weekly.html

7 replies, 2174 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Election Dashboard....Four Weeks To Go and Here is Where it All Stands (Original post)
tgards79 Oct 2014 OP
1StrongBlackMan Oct 2014 #1
tgards79 Oct 2014 #6
1StrongBlackMan Oct 2014 #7
Kalidurga Oct 2014 #2
tgards79 Oct 2014 #3
Kalidurga Oct 2014 #4
tgards79 Oct 2014 #5

Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Tue Oct 7, 2014, 10:16 PM

1. Methodology? Model Assumptions? eom.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 9, 2014, 05:34 PM

6. In general...

For Senate and Govs, I use the last five non-partisan polls in the last month only. For House, I average the ratings of Cook, Sabato, Daily Kos, RCP and Rothenburg. Plus I have my own regression. Strong track record, see the blog!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to tgards79 (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 9, 2014, 05:57 PM

7. Thanks ...

 

I'm a kind'a relent numbers nerd (if I don't say so, myself) and am always interested in modeling/methodology.

The only "concern" in have with meta-analysis is it relies on the accuracy of the individual poll's modeling (i.e., weighting). And I suspect (or, better, as a pure partisan ... hope) that the polling models will be way off, with respect to turn-out ... particularly, African-American.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Tue Oct 7, 2014, 11:17 PM

2. Some people have a weird way of GOTV

But, if it works for you then go you!!!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Kalidurga (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 11:27 AM

3. If the Dems...

...and I am one of them, can't get excited enough to GOTV with potentially losing the Senate, two more House seats, and 14 governor races that are toss-ups....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to tgards79 (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 04:39 PM

4. Yep

we should vote like every contest is a potential loss even if our candidate is 10 points ahead.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Kalidurga (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 8, 2014, 08:42 PM

5. Not just vote...get others too...

At this point, it would be a huge story if the Dems simply held the Senate, lost no more House seats and picked up at state house or two. Let's go for it!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread