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bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
Thu Oct 30, 2014, 08:47 PM Oct 2014

Bad news out of Kentucky on the Senate race

Not surprising to me to see these numbers if you run like a republican and you are a democrat your not going to get respect.Funny how they are saying 5 points is alot for Grimes to over come but yet when a democrat is 5 points ahead it's considered a tossup the election is Tuesday anything is possible haven't they forgot the Cantor race I mean I'm not saying she has it easy but come on to say 5 points is a lot to over come.Any DU'ers from Kentucky And how is the race on the ground http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2014/10/30/bluegrass-poll-mitch-mcconnell-alison-lundergan-grimes/18144803/

21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Bad news out of Kentucky on the Senate race (Original Post) bigdarryl Oct 2014 OP
Small sample, within large 4.1 margin of error, one poll, 16,000 show up for Grimes, 250 for....him. Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #1
They say she's only getting 71% of democrates supporting her and McConnell is getting 27% dems bigdarryl Oct 2014 #2
You are a well of bad news today? Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #5
It is a discussion board for intelligent people whether you like it or not. former9thward Oct 2014 #11
Again, with the misinterpretation.... Fred Sanders Oct 2014 #14
Hillary is on her way there! TheNutcracker Oct 2014 #3
I though she was already there today(Thursday) bigdarryl Oct 2014 #4
You've had your share of criticism for Grimes demwing Oct 2014 #6
I'm not criticising her I'm just posting what the polling out of that state is saying about the race bigdarryl Oct 2014 #7
"I'm not criticising her" ??? demwing Oct 2014 #8
So do you think the poll is off bigdarryl Oct 2014 #9
Yes, of course it is. Major Hogwash Oct 2014 #10
Hogwash. former9thward Oct 2014 #12
Bullshit again demwing Oct 2014 #13
Generally 3 % is a lot TSIAS Oct 2014 #15
Màybe you should ask Elizabeth Warren? demwing Oct 2014 #16
So if Grimes had run as a liberal, she would be winning in Kentucky? brooklynite Oct 2014 #17
Except for energy policy, her platform is more progressive than most Democrats these days. Ykcutnek Oct 2014 #19
energy policy, guns, and immigration AtomicKitten Nov 2014 #20
She is progressive . . for Kentucky. Major Hogwash Nov 2014 #21
I don't understand why people don't get it. AnalystInParadise Oct 2014 #18
 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
2. They say she's only getting 71% of democrates supporting her and McConnell is getting 27% dems
Thu Oct 30, 2014, 09:02 PM
Oct 2014

Maybe the people at these rallies were there to see Warren and the Clinton's here is another article that goes further in the breakdown.Even her own pollster Mellman is saying there down in the polling http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/30/4278940_kentuckys-mcconnell-widens-senate.html?sp=/99/102/111/&rh=1

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
11. It is a discussion board for intelligent people whether you like it or not.
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 12:53 PM
Oct 2014

It is not some brain dead inspirational feel good board.

 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
7. I'm not criticising her I'm just posting what the polling out of that state is saying about the race
Thu Oct 30, 2014, 09:53 PM
Oct 2014

I don't know how accurate this bluegrass polling outfit is.But it's there last poll before election day.Remember also what Sam Wang has said that the candidate who is leading in the polls at this time more than likely will loose on election night.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
8. "I'm not criticising her" ???
Thu Oct 30, 2014, 10:06 PM
Oct 2014
"Not surprising to me to see these numbers if you run like a republican and you are a democrat your not going to get respect."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251382527

"Grimes support has dropped I'm not surprised since she went full rightwing her negatives are up also. This race is hers to loose and so far she's doing a good job of trying to loose with her inept campaign."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251380974

That's pretty harsh...
 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
9. So do you think the poll is off
Thu Oct 30, 2014, 10:22 PM
Oct 2014

I'm just a little suspicious that this poll is saying McConnell is getting 27% of democrats supporting him.I would like to know there reason for voting for him when he hasn't done nothing for the African American community.I bet a large number of them are benefiting from the ACA

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
10. Yes, of course it is.
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 01:44 AM
Oct 2014

The one thing that major pollsters can't do is poll cell phone users.
And the majority of new voters use cell phones, so they are not included in these polls.

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
12. Hogwash.
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 12:59 PM
Oct 2014

Major pollsters poll cell phones. This is not the 1990s anymore. I have been polled once and I only have a cell phone.

Gallup includes cellphones in each national Gallup poll. Gallup has been including cellphone-only households in all national telephone Gallup polls since January 2008. Further, cellphone-only households are now as likely to fall into national Gallup polls samples as those living in traditional landline households.

Gallup and the survey research industry as a whole are exceedingly aware that increasing numbers of Americans use cellphones in addition to traditional landline phones and that nearly 40% of households have only cellphones. Gallup's methodologists and survey scientists have studied, researched, conducted test polling; analyzed existing data; and examined the implications of the inclusion or exclusion of cellphones and determined that it is necessary to include cellphone numbers in survey samples despite the increased costs of doing so to ensure that the obtained samples continue to be representative of all Americans. This is particularly important given recent studies that show that people in cellphone-only households tend to be younger, are more likely to be racial and ethnic minorities, and more likely to be transient.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/110383/does-gallup-call-cell-phones.aspx

TSIAS

(14,689 posts)
15. Generally 3 % is a lot
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 08:19 PM
Oct 2014

There can't be that many undecideds left.

I wonder if she weren't so embarrassed of Obama if she could increase turnout and perhaps defeat McConnell. Besides toppling the Republican, I can't see why a progressive Democrat would want to support Grimes at this point.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
16. Màybe you should ask Elizabeth Warren?
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 10:28 PM
Oct 2014

she'll school you!



I know you has a sad because Grimes won't say if she voted for Obama, but you'll get over it,
 

Ykcutnek

(1,305 posts)
19. Except for energy policy, her platform is more progressive than most Democrats these days.
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 11:39 PM
Oct 2014

Some people are just butthurt that she didn't embrace Obama.

I like him too, but he has two years left. This is a 6-year term. Time to start thinking ahead instead of trying to defend a lame duck.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
21. She is progressive . . for Kentucky.
Sat Nov 1, 2014, 05:06 AM
Nov 2014

Kentucky is radicalized right now by the 2 biggest assholes the GOP party has, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul.

When you have 2 extremists like that as Senators, it's pretty hard for anyone else running for office against them to not be considered progressive by their standards.
The only way Grimes could be as conservatively extreme as McConnell at this point is if she said she wanted to start fracking for oil in her state.

Add to that, the fact that the Koch brothers have given McConnell upwards of $50 million dollars for this campaign, it would be an uphill battle for anybody.
Ghandi wouldn't be doing much better than Grimes against that kind of lopsided support!



 

AnalystInParadise

(1,832 posts)
18. I don't understand why people don't get it.
Fri Oct 31, 2014, 11:23 PM
Oct 2014

There are 500,000 more Democrats registered in Kentucky versus Democrats and Republicans usually win by 20 points. Given the registration demographics, the Republicans HAVE to be winning a significant number of Democrats to win. This is Appalachia, a fair number of Democrats have a D on their party registration card, but they vote R. This is really not that hard.

http://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/statcnty.txt

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