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Sun Nov 16, 2014, 06:50 PM

A First Look at the 2016 Senate Map - A Tougher Take Back For the Dems Than You Might Think

An early review, state-by-state:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/2016-senate-democratic-take-back-is.html

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Reply A First Look at the 2016 Senate Map - A Tougher Take Back For the Dems Than You Might Think (Original post)
tgards79 Nov 2014 OP
Skeowes28 Nov 2014 #1
Dawson Leery Nov 2014 #2
Skeowes28 Nov 2014 #3
Yupster Nov 2014 #4
lastlib Nov 2014 #5
Yupster Nov 2014 #6
tgards79 Nov 2014 #7
pstokely Nov 2014 #13
quadrature Nov 2014 #8
Proud Liberal Dem Nov 2014 #9
tgards79 Nov 2014 #10
Recursion Nov 2014 #11
tgards79 Nov 2014 #14
pstokely Nov 2014 #12
tgards79 Nov 2014 #15
pstokely Nov 2014 #16
tgards79 Nov 2014 #17
mgcgulfcoast Nov 2014 #18
FBaggins Nov 2014 #19
BruceW Nov 2014 #20
tgards79 Nov 2014 #21

Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 07:00 PM

1. Yea

 

Your right I think dems will win 2016 ala 2004 totals 272 to 290 electoral votes. Dems have the blue wall but Wisconsin is vulnerable Iowa and Virginia needs to be shore up but I thnk thee may be a 3 tx party person that will shave off votes

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 07:12 PM

2. Early, still....

It is sad that Democrats did not come out to vote. They handed over North Carolina/Iowa/Colorado to the GOP.

I disagree about Arizona. McCain is deeply unpopular in a state that is turning towards the blue side due to demographics.
Richard Carmona needs to run again.

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 07:20 PM

3. I'm in az

 

McCain isn't as popular true but I think McCain wins and az duesnt turn blue for another 8 to 12 years and we do have a strong tea party faction here

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 07:25 PM

4. I agree with you.

It looks like Dems should gain, but four gains are tough, though possible.

Here's my quick review.

Democratic Seats (Two competitive)

California - Easy hold whether Boxer runs or not.
Colorado - A tossup race with Bennett the slightest of favorites.
Connecticutt - No money needs to be spent to hold Blumenthals' seat.
Hawaii - another easy hold.
Maryland - No competition for Barbara.
Nevada - I actually put Reid an underdog, tossup if he retires. If Sandoval jumps in, this becomes a Repub lean at least.
New York - Which Republican sacrificial lamb will agree to take on Schumer?
Oregon - Wyden is a lock.
Vermont - Leahy as safe as could be.
Washington - Murray seems to have a close race for a month, and then pulls away for a comfortable win.

Republican Seats (3 Dem favoreds, 6 more competitive)

Alabama - Shelby an easy win.
Alaska - Murkowski a lock unless VP pick.
Arizona - McCain retires rather than losing in primary. That makes this race a toss-up.
Arkansas - Boozeman a lock.
Florida - If Rubio runs, he wins. If he quits to run for prez, it's a toss-up.
Georgia - Isaakson probably cruises, possibility to challenge.
Idaho - Republican easy win.
Illinois - Kirk says he will run for reelection. Will be huge underdog unless some kind of weird health sympathy vote.
Indiana - Coats probably safe.
Iowa - Grassley safe. If he retires, a lean Dem. No Bruce, you can't run for Grassley's seat.
Kansas - Moran a safe bet.
Kentucky - Paul a lock. If he quits to run for prez, probably still likely Repub.
Louisiana - Vitter comfortable as a sleeping baby in diapers.
Missouri - Blunt a slight favorite - Lean Repub.
New Hampshire - Ayotte probably safe.
North Carolina _ Burr a tossup at best.
North Dakota - Hoeven safe.
Ohio - Ohio always close, but I'd make Portman a pretty strong favorite.
Oklahoma - no contest.
Pennsylvania - best pickup opportunity. Toomey a significant underdog to hold on.
South Carolina - Does this guy run every year? He'll win by 25 %.
South Dakota - Thune is safe.
Utah - Mike Lee is probably safe. His competition will be in primary.
Wisconsin - A good pickup opportunity. Ron Johnson can keep his seat but he'd start out a lean - Dem or maybe even likely Dem.

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Response to Yupster (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 07:51 PM

5. Kansas--in a state full of GOP morans, the one named Moran has gotta win....

...

(what a f*cked-up state!)

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Response to lastlib (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 08:43 PM

6. And Crapo

seems like a sure bet in Idaho.

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Response to Yupster (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 08:52 PM

7. Very good analysis

Not terribly different from mine. It'll teeter around 50/50.

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Response to tgards79 (Reply #7)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 03:32 AM

13. whoever wins the WH takes probably take the senate also

nt

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 09:20 PM

8. I see 3 pickup opportunities

 

possible flips
Illinois
Penn
Wis
getting 4 out of that is going to be tough

possible D to R flips
Colo
Nevada

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Response to quadrature (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 10:05 PM

9. Louisiana and North Carolina could be in play

I heard that Vitter might resign next year to run for Governor and Landrieu (if she loses this year), could come back and try to run for his seat. Likewise, Hagan could try for Burr's seat in a better election year.

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Response to quadrature (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 16, 2014, 10:15 PM

10. Florida, North Carolina

Florida if Rubio doesn't run
North Carolina, Hagan versus Burr

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 12:08 AM

11. NC in an election year is good for us

I disagree that that should be "Lean R"

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Response to Recursion (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 12:47 PM

14. I certainly debated NC in my head

Last edited Mon Nov 17, 2014, 04:33 PM - Edit history (1)

I'd put it in the Dem TU camp if Hagan definitely ran.

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 03:29 AM

12. Papa Blunt is safe if he runs again

it's R lean to tossup if it's an open seat, MO Dems are running of out candidates with name recognition

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Response to pstokely (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 04:34 PM

15. Yes I would agree with that

I would not count on Missouri by any stretch...if we win Missouri we'll have won 54 others first!

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Response to tgards79 (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 17, 2014, 07:10 PM

16. although Dems hold most of the statewide offices

Repukes don't have a lot of other candidates with wide recognition if Papa Blunt retires

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Response to pstokely (Reply #16)

Tue Nov 18, 2014, 09:26 PM

17. If he retires...

That's the key. Missouri could come into play then...

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Wed Nov 19, 2014, 03:49 PM

18. we will have 57 in 2016

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Response to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 19, 2014, 04:24 PM

19. No chance of that

Since the Senate wouldn't form after the election until 2017.

Just for reference... what was your prediction for this current cycle a year or so ago?

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Response to tgards79 (Original post)

Wed Nov 19, 2014, 08:30 PM

20. Nate Silver's site confirmation

 

2016 Senate Map - A Tougher Take Back For the Dems Than You Might Think


Nate Silver says the same thing (he is the guy who predicted 2008 and 2012 accurately)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/clinton-probably-cant-expand-the-2016-map-and-if-she-does-it-wont-matter/

?w=610&h=496

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Response to BruceW (Reply #20)

Thu Nov 20, 2014, 11:03 PM

21. Always good to have Nate's support

And it comforts him to have mine!

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