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Mon May 21, 2012, 04:10 PM

MONTHLY ELECTORAL COLLEGE GUESTIMATE

Hi folks I've said that just for shits and giggles I would do an EC estimate once a month this will be my third one. I am only doing the EC and not the popular because I don't give a shit about the popular vote that's not gonna reelect Obama. Theoretically Obama could win by one vote in the most populated states and lose every other vote elsewhere and still win...so here goes my picks for the EC (Please argue with me if you diagree)

Obama Absolute WA 12 OR 7 CA 55 NM 5 HI 4 ME 4 VT 3 MA 11 RI 4 CT 7 NY 29 PA 21 NJ 13
MY 10 DC 3 MN 10 IL 20 MI 17 WI 10 IA 6 NV 6 VA 13 NH 4 Total 274 EV

Toss AZ 11 OH 20 FL 29 possibly MT 3 total 63 EV

Romney States (I'll lump them together because I don't like to name them: 201 EV)

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply MONTHLY ELECTORAL COLLEGE GUESTIMATE (Original post)
gopiscrap May 2012 OP
SteveG May 2012 #1
gopiscrap May 2012 #2
hrmjustin May 2012 #3
Happydayz May 2012 #4
hrmjustin May 2012 #9
yellowcanine May 2012 #5
sofa king May 2012 #6
grantcart May 2012 #8
groundloop May 2012 #11
kaiden May 2012 #7
gopiscrap May 2012 #10

Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 12:31 PM

1. You forgot DE

DE 3 -

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 09:28 PM

2. OOPS I knew there was one that I forgot

and that would be stronlgly in the Obama column to make it 277

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 10:31 PM

3. Obama could loose OH,FL,NC,IN and VA he can still win.

 

If Romney wins all four of those states and wins all of the mccain states he gets 266. That includes the 1 vote from NE. But if Obama holds swing states like NH,CO,NM,NV,WI,IA,PA, and MI then he wins. I do not think Romney will win all five of those states, but it is possible. As for your scenario I think is reasonable. Of the three southern states that Obama won I think VA is his best shot. As for your tossups I think MT will go for Romney because of the Mormon population. AZ we have a shot, but again the mormons will come out there. we shall see.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #3)

Wed May 23, 2012, 12:46 AM

4. I'm sorry, but MI, PA and WI are not swing states.

They are must win states for dems. We have to start out with all the states that Kerry won, if we want a snowball of a chance to win. It should be a democratic path victory blueprint that you must at least win all of Kerry's states. If Obama losses PA, MI and WI it will be an uphill battle because harder to win states like VA, FL, OH, NC will be must wins.

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Response to Happydayz (Reply #4)

Wed May 23, 2012, 02:17 PM

9. You are right about Mi and PA but if it is a close election...

 

...Wi will be contested and it will be close. Remember while Obama won it by about 400,000 votes, Gore won it by 5,000 votes and Kerry won it by 11,000. My friend I hope you are right because we could use those three states in our corner without any heavy lifting to get them.

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 09:35 AM

5. I think Fl is as likely a win as VA for Obama. And probably OH also.

AZ is less likely but possible if high Hispanic turnout offsets the wing nuts.

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 10:58 AM

6. You can laugh at me today...

... but if everything keeps on track, I think this is what we'll see in November:



I am tempted to add Tennessee to President Obama's landslide, but I feel like I'm out on a limb with Georgia and SC, anyway. At this point, I don't think the newest round of Jim Crow voting laws will even begin to counteract the lack of Republican interest across the nation.

I feel this confident because we have yet to see the legislative ass-kicking that Senate Democrats have planned for this summer, which I think is going to force Republicans to hit so many Americans straight in the wallet that many conservative voters will realize they can pay themselves and save face just by staying home.

Furthermore, I see the way the press is soft-pedaling this election in exactly the same way that they did in 1996, when Bill Clinton's reelection was written on the wall even before Dole secured his own nomination. They did a good job of making it look closer than it actually was for months, and they'll do it again this time. And if it's not close enough to steal, there is a much higher risk in trying to steal it, so I expect to see major Democratic surges in places where I think vote-rigging has been happening for the past twelve years.

The President's strategy has long since turned to growing Congressional coattails and generating interest in the Democratic platform as a whole, which I think is actually going to increase the margin by which he wins his own election. That's why I'm willing to pitch a map that looks ridiculous today. Because everything is lined up for the biggest stomping in at least two decades.

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Response to sofa king (Reply #6)

Wed May 23, 2012, 02:00 PM

8. This is not as far fetched as it may seem. The debates could be a grand debacle for the Mittster.

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Response to sofa king (Reply #6)

Sat May 26, 2012, 12:29 PM

11. Georgia for Obama, really?

Not that I'd complain. I live here (Georgia) and just don't see it happening.

Now, with that being said, I will add that so far I have seen ZERO Rmoney yard signs or bumper stickers, which is quite eery.

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 11:23 AM

7. Where's Colorado? Put that in the Obama column.

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Response to gopiscrap (Original post)

Fri May 25, 2012, 10:41 PM

10. You're right

Colorado to Obama make that 283 electoral votes

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