2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNY Times election model now projects 84% probability of Gingrich win in Florida...
...with an estimated vote share of 43.9%. And if Santorum dropped out and his 11% were reallocated?
Be afraid Mitt. Be very afraid...
Fivethirtyeight:
GodlessBiker
(6,314 posts)Jim__
(14,045 posts)I guess I'll have to watch.
GodlessBiker
(6,314 posts)gutless and will just say whatever he needs to to get votes.
If thrice-married Gingrich wins Florida, you will begin to see Romney backers hedge their bets, saying they have always appreciated Newt's efforts and they think the Party could coalesce around him if he wins the nomination.
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)You might -also- see the Republican establishment band together for a nuclear option to take down Newt's campaign. Better to lose the Presidency that to lose every Republican race in the country.
GodlessBiker
(6,314 posts)Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)Their fallback is the brokered convention with a fresh, undamaged dark horse candidate.
They may (most likely WILL) lose to Obama, but will be forced to do what they can to minimize damage to the Party.
None of the old tactics are working right anymore. The right-wing rabble used to be a lot easier to herd where they wanted them. The Marianne Interview failed in attaining its desired effect. The masses have awoken from their coma into a light doze, their sleep disturbed by dreams of circling vulture capitalists and disappearing jobs. They have not yet awoken to see full reality, but their collective hypnagogic state is not comfortable, not happy with unsettling visions of Romney circling overhead, looking for his next struggling victim.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)brooklynite
(93,873 posts)Well apprently we have our own version of the Russian Troika its Republican and it features Troika, Newt, Palin and Perry. ALL we need is Santorum to join and we now have a ummm...I don't know. I have already sent a letter to the editor to the Miami newspaper about Santorum's hijinx and fraud in 12 years as a US Senator OF Pennsylvania. He fraudently claimed PA as his primary residence so he would not het political heat and get 4 or 5 of his children;s school paid and they could take PA Cyber School classes on line in Virginia. I did not say US Senator FROM Pennsylvania for the reasons stated. He is know as slick Rick here. Three months are being sworn he moved to Herndon Virginia and sold his house in Mt. Lebanon, PA (about 15 minutes from me) and never returned to live in Pennsylvania again. He did buy a vacant house, but NEVER lived in the property and didnt even bother to turn on the electricity. It was unkept, lawn not mowed, paint peeling and not one stick of furniture and junk strewn all over the porch. He paid about $89,000 at the same time he also upgraded his home in to a Leesburg VA for a whopping $640,000, which he later sold for $850,0. He got a loan from a small bank called Philadelphia Trust and you are required by the bank to have liquid assets equaling $250,000 AND be an investor to receive a mortgage. But since he is a Senator OF Pennsylvania that was waived. An ethic investigation ensued but by that time we (PA voters) threw him out on his ear and sent him back to VA with a resord breaking defeat od 18%. IN 2009 when he was given a house for free. Yes free, the public records show a tax attorney from McLean Virginia created a trust and spent $2 million on the house and the trust transferred it to Santorum just 2 years last..cost? $0 according to the county. That occured in 2009. In the meantime he tried to get the Penn Hills School District to pay for his children's online schooling to the tune of 100,000 for the 4 of them since he declared an ampty residence his home. Reporters determined without question he was living in Leesburgh , Virginia 254 days a year. The school board sued him. The three have got together to cook Mitts goose. Newt said Palin will be in the Administation and some speculate Perry as his Veep oops all over again. I am 100% Obama and there is nothing that will ever change that...nothing! So now we have Florida coming and I am not sure i want to see Newt get the nomination and Implode and take a chance he manages to hold it together for 10 months or hope newt staggers to the finish line leaving behind a broken party. Perry has money and he becomes a bundler for Newt thats trouble for Mitt. Remember Perry outraised Mitt when he announced with 17 million to 15 million. Pery did not even have the full quarter to fund raise. So now Perry is head of the 10th Ammendment Committee and Palin is waiting to have some role in the 4 years of attack on the middle class. We really need to get Congress back desperately! Its a very slow uptick but it is steady as people are becoming less and less thrilled with the Tea Party and this time even their own Congressman. If the Dems could beat just 10% of the Republicans we would get the House back. WE need to hold the Senate, but in the current climate you need 60 votes to pass anything! So I guess I will be getting out the check book for Obama! It has to be done! Please join me let's send $25 and if we get together we can make an impact. Its less than a dinner out at a restautant! So Please for our own sanity hope online and make a donation to Obama we are at a real crossroads with the Troika!
progressoid
(49,827 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)by scheduling the primary in January. Apparently, as punishment they only get half the delegates and those must be chosen proportionally.
First time I've heard this. Wonder if there's anything to it?
on edit: apparently the National Committee has the power to punish Florida for this but has not done so up to now. Once again Michael Steele does what he does best-misinforms.