2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI don't give a flying patootie that Bernie can't win. This primary is about far more than that.
It's about what this party stands for and will fight for. It's about highlighting the ever increasing corporate dominance of our government by someone who actually has a record fighting against it. To be corny it's about defining the soul of our party at this time in our nation's history. It's about cutting through the bullshit and hypocrisy.
Yes, HRC will almost certainly win the nomination. The money that she is now so vocal in opposing, ensures that. Bernie has some notable strikes against him: He's a "socialist". He's 73. He's Jewish, etc. But by running, he'll force a real and much needed debate.
It's ironic that the person to do this is an Independent.
Oh, and this is GOOD for the Democratic Party.
CTyankee
(63,903 posts)He and Warren are getting their message about inequality out there and making it a BIG part of the political dialogue. I think it has begun to dawn on the voters that Bernie and Elizabeth's message is right on. Americans are feeling the pain of inequality and these ideas are just what we need to attract more folks into the Democratic Party and win in 2016...
cali
(114,904 posts)as the likely nominee.
We agree.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Do you support her backing of Israel 100% of the time, right or wrong?
If you're going to dish it out, you're going to get it dished right back at you
For the record: Bernie did not attend Netanyahu's ill begotten speech to Congress- and spoke out strongly against it. Your accusation that Bernie is allied with Bibi is wrong. He is not.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Actually asking, as I don't know.
cali
(114,904 posts)If I remember correctly that was the stance of our government as a whole mostly.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)Sancho
(9,067 posts)To the far right wing, he's is a crazy outlier just like we typically think about Cruz or Palin, but the contrast will give the independents a chance to see Hillary as less extreme and more appealing.
cali
(114,904 posts)Bernie has demonstrated a lot of appeal to independents, particularly young ones, and he comes off as level headed.
talk to voting college students or 20 somethings. Right wingers consider Berni extreme (socialist, communist). The ones who don't listen to Thom Hartman, etc. and only vote occasionally will watch Berni in a primary and see him as more extreme than Hillary. They have name recognition of Hillary, and women particularly know a few things about her.
Just as some middle road right wingers see some from their own party as extreme (so they gravitate to Jeb or other moderates), some middle roaders that are sort of progressive will see Hillary as less extreme.
Think about women business majors in college who don't agree with the crazy repubs, but also have committed to a life in the corporate world. They will choose Hillary over Berni.
Just my observation here in Florida.
cali
(114,904 posts)And I've seen Bernie convince republican logger and farmers to vote for him, right here in my town
Prepare to be surprised
Sancho
(9,067 posts)...and I'm in a purple state with lots of politics on campus.
Bernie is unknown here except the hard core progressives. People around me (even the liberals) are talking business and taxes and environment. Women's rights and LGBT are hot topics. Obviously immigration reform. 25% here were born in another country. Even though TPP is a solid loser on DU, many of my friends and neighbors are not sure it's bad.
Bernie will appeal a little to the SS crowd, and he will be popular on student loans and some domestic programming. OTOH, the socialist label, being Jewish, and little international experience will be negatives. I'd guess that in Florida, side by side with Hillary, she will come out ahead on women's issues, international experience, and likely even knowledge of wall street in the eyes of our independents. We have lots of military contracts in Florida too, so even the independents are more inclined to keep the defense budget.
Bernie may be seen as too liberal for most of the middle road voters in my town if he was on TV sounding like he does on Tom H. Our Democratic and GOP bases are almost equal, so winning the 40% in the middle is the way to win Florida - assuming the base shows up to vote. Of course, in debates and with good campaigning, he might get some support. He would have to be careful not to sound too extreme. I think in a comparison Hillary would appear more centered, even on issues where they essentially agree.
We'll see.
cali
(114,904 posts)Convention, last week, right?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-sc-democrats-wait-on-hillary-clinton-likely-foes-plant-seeds/2015/04/25/453f5810-eb5f-11e4-aae1-d642717d8afa_story.html
HRC didn't bother to go.
and I used to work in SC for Richard Riley (two term governor from SC and Clinton's Secretary of Education).
I'm sure that at a Democratic meeting, Bernie would be well-received. That's especially true of the hard core base in a state where they are surrounded by the enemy. Likely it would be true in parts of Florida.
Winning purple states like Florida and Ohio are the way to win national elections. That depends on winning the middle and independents.
There's a great article from years ago: http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1164602?uid=3739600&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21106205549931
Eelworms, Bulletholes, and Geraldine Ferraro. It explains that the most important sample (voters in this case) are the non ignorable, non respondent. In other words, we know the base. Hillary or Bernie would either get a great reception from most Democratic forums if they were the candidate. What wins or loses elections today (other than hacking and gerrymandering) is getting the independent and non-affiliated voters to pick you. It's the voters absent from the rally that we need to worry about.
We know Hillary has some possibility to win over women and segments of the potential independents. I'm not convinced that Bernie will pull it off in the big purple states. If he makes the primary competitive, then that's great. I've listened to him for years, and he's got a good handle on selected issues. He gets a little testy about some topics, and gives a good speech. To the young folks and some independents, he may not be as convincing. Right now, most of the "TMZ" group probably don't know who he is...
Sancho
(9,067 posts)Evergreen Emerald
(13,069 posts)is about what the democratic party stands for?
cali
(114,904 posts)that's a no brainer.
dionysus
(26,467 posts)shallow and stupid
frylock
(34,825 posts)and how does that conflict with Sander's policy positions?
truebluegreen
(9,033 posts)And also indicative: Bernie said he would get in the race if he didn't think the people's position was getting enough attention (or something to that effect). Clearly, he has not been won over by Clinton's campaign so far...whether or not she becomes the nominee, she needs to be challenged from the left. Maybe the triangulators will see where the enthusiasm can be found.
dmosh42
(2,217 posts)Hillary's 'fuzzy' views on things like taxation, bankers and trade policies. There's no doubt about Bernie's ability to call BS on Repuke lies about Soc Sec and medicare. And being someone who started voting in the 60s, I considered myself to be closer to the center, and Bernie's positions are all close to what I want.
dhill926
(16,337 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)even corny. I think it is just a fact of the matter. Bernie will be a very popular candidate in Oregon. This will be good for the Party, the 2008 Primary was a gift to the Party, a thorn in DU's side but we gained voters like crazy and looked good doing it.
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)whereas if this did not happen, the GOP would simply have more time to warm over old crap. Now they will have Bernie biting from the left, Hillary from the center, and they will get the sort of wounds that even Koch money cannot fix, same way even Mitt Money could not fix it.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)I don't think such labels matter much anymore... and the Republicans have done a great job of inoculating future candidates against being harmed by such.
They spent years calling Democrats "liberals"...
Then they spent years calling Obama a "socialist".
When that didn't work, they started calling him a "communist".
The supremely ironic thing about it is, now that a REAL self-proclaimed socialist is running,
they'll say "but Bernie's a socialist!!!"
And everyone will say, "So what? I agree with what he's saying"
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)but we'll see.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)lots of foreign experience and understands national security.
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)It's 18 months until the election which is an eternity in politics. He is certainly a long shot but don't write him off just yet. Lets see how this plays out.
chknltl
(10,558 posts)I see democracy as the ability, the very will of the citizenry to determine their own fate. Our economic model of capitalism has unregulated itself to the point that it may have taken over our democracy....it surely runs all of the Republican Party, most of the Democratic Party and most of our media. Senator Sanders is well aware of our failing democracy. He told us more than once on Thom Hartmann's "Brunch with Bernie Hour" that he would not consider a run unless he believed that a groundswell revolution could rally to him. The very fact that this man has decided to run inspires me because I know he believes he can make it happen.
Cosmocat
(14,563 posts)I have no faith in our electorate relative to him being able to "win" the nomination, and even less the general if he did and the republicans put their full focus on him.
But, he is about as right on policy as you can get, so it is worth supporting him.
itcfish
(1,828 posts)another Nader
cali
(114,904 posts)DFW
(54,358 posts)Ralph Nader cared about Ralph Nader. Bernie Sanders cares about everybody else.
That is a fundamental difference.
Bernie Sanders will support our ultimate nominee if he isn't it. Nader supported Nader.
That, too, is a fundamental difference.
DFW
(54,358 posts)Because he doesn't have a name like Goldberg or Finkelstein, I'll bet plenty of them that wouldn't vote for a Jew EVER care more about the label "Socialist" than they care about the name "Sanders," because to their ears, it doesn't "sound" Jewish.
Totally off theme, but as an example: my mom once had a friend who taught college in North Carolina. His family name was Lee, shortened generations ago from some longer Irish name. He was assigned an assistant, and was told her name was Mrs. Schwartz. When Mrs. Schwartz came into his office for the first time, both of them gaped at each other and started laughing. Mrs. Schwartz was a Chinese woman who had married a Jewish American, but expected to see an ethnic Chinese boss. Professor Lee, on the other hand, expected a Jewish assistant. Surprise!
ellie
(6,929 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Exactly. Most politicians master sound bites that allow them to skirt the heart of an issue to please as many as possible in a vague sort of way. Bernie masters sound bites that pierce through "sound good" fluff to get right to the heart of an issue. He is a bulldog in that way, he will not be deterred from raising the issues that matter to the middle class, to working Americans, and to all those being left behind by the 1%. With Bernie in the race it will be impossible for that "real and much needed debate" not to happen.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)There are so many variables that can happen it's a joke. His odds are as good as anyone elses.
Timmy5835
(373 posts)I'll tell you who says it, the media elites, AKA, the corporate oligarchy not the average American. Can Bernie win? Sure he can. Movement campaigns start all the time. Someone with a good message and the grassroots to back him can do amazing things. Now the elites will do anything to convince you otherwise. They have the money and the media to support their oligarchy vision. But we still have the votes and the numbers. A challenging endeavor? well yea, but most major shifts in policy always are. Don't listen to the media and the pundits, they are not the final say. Each one of us has that role, and each one of us can change history.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)A republican tactic, that works very well.
kairos12
(12,853 posts)political scale going right ever since. I hope the issues Senator Bernie brings up reverses this trend and we start fighting on our ground where any "compromise" still leaves the issue clearly on the left side of the scale.