Obama seeks positives from payroll precedent
In the 10 months leading up to George W. Bushs re-election in 2004, the US economy posted relatively strong average monthly job gains of 186,000.
The contrast with his father, George H.W. Bush, who lost re-election in 1992, was stark: Mr Bush Sr was badly hurt by a weak economy, with tepid average monthly job creation of just 80,300 between January and October of his last year in office.
On Friday, Barack Obama will find out whether payroll formation is moving closer to its pace of 1992, which could signal defeat, or whether it will stay in the vicinity of its levels in 2004, possibly leading to victory.
So far this year, job creation has advanced at an average monthly clip of 164,600, placing Mr Obama, who is travelling through Ohio and Pennsylvania on a swing state bus tour on Thursday and Friday, within striking distance of the encouraging precedent set by Mr Bush Jr, his predecessor.
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