2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Obama leads in VA by 8-points and in NC by 1-point
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in two critical Southern battleground states.
In Virginia, Obama leads by eight points, 50% to 42%.
In North Carolina, Obama has a one point edge, 47% to 46%.
"Our polling in both of these states has been pretty steady over the last year and a half. Obama has consistently fared very well in Virginia, leading by 6 points, 8 points, and now 8 points again on our last three polls. This is looking like it could be something of a firewall state for him. We have now polled North Carolina 22 times since late November of 2010. 21 out of those 22 times Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other. The state's about as much of a toss up as it could possibly be."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/07/10/obama_holds_lead_in_virginia_north_carolina.html
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)Democrats don't seem to be faring particularly well in North Carolina at the moment. What's going on there?
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)so he is doing about as well as he did at his peak.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)I guess if he is about at the same place, then that's a good sign.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Yes, but Obama was doing much better in North Carolina in the polling until May came along. If you check out this graph, you'll see that Obama took a HUGE fall and Romney took a huge jump on May 14, 2012 at the time of the gay marriage announcement.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)i live in va and romney is getting pounded nonstop by powerful obama ads.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,355 posts)whatever he is doing seems to be working!
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Romney will lose the election even if he wins one of those states.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)work with throngs of OFA in VA starting this weekend. I'm actually looking forward to going door to door this time around. 2008 was difficult, but now Obama has a successful record to brag about even if he won't do so himself.
Dalai_1
(1,301 posts)monmouth
(21,078 posts)n2doc
(47,953 posts)a kennedy
(29,462 posts)ananda
(28,782 posts)So even if he loses Texas by a smaller margin than usual,
that should mean that he'll win the election by a landslide.
Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)Leading while in the 40's is less secure, IMHO. Over 50 means he's getting higher favorables, not just "better than the other guy" votes.
yellowcanine
(35,692 posts)stronger for Obama also.
bornskeptic
(1,330 posts)so it's not that much different.
yellowcanine
(35,692 posts)So it is significant that Obama's lead is that large. Could be good news for the Senate seat there as well.
mikekohr
(2,312 posts)Obama and 25 in '12
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Is anyone else really disappointed with the quality of polling this year?
It seems almost every pollster is allowing their polling to be taken over by politics this year.
We know that Rasmussen inflates its numbers for the Republicans, but this year it looks like PPP is inflating its numbers for the Democrats. As Nate Silver says on his site, he has detected an in-house bias towards the Dems this year. I just don't think it's likely that Obama is ahead in Virginia by 8 points. That would mean he is doing better there than in 2008.
And most pollsters show Obama behind in North Carolina, so why does he just happen to be ahead there in PPP?
If PPP is inflating its numbers for the Democrats, this doesn't help us get a sense of what is actually happening on the ground in those states.
Broderick
(4,578 posts)Right now I see, and it may just be when I turn things on, that Obama is advertising more in Virginia at least.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)So based on the VA advertising, who do you think is doing better there?
Are you saying a lot of advertising is a good sign or a bad sign?
Broderick
(4,578 posts)or ahead in their internal polls. They have been spending a lot of time here too. Matter of fact, Obama is in town today and we are sequestered at this time with streets blocked off where I am at in most directions. People are rip roaring mad that they can't get where they what to go.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)The NC numbers from almost all pollsters has been close. A one point lead is barely even a lead. I think there was a Ras poll showing Romney up by a much higher margin there but that is likely an outlier. If it weren't, I can't see why the Obama campaign would invest heavily there. They know they will be outspent this year and I'm sure wouldn't waste money there if they felt it was a futile effort. It is definitely a swing state. Unlike IN, which I seriously doubt the the Obama campaign is seriously contesting this year. I'm not sure if they're gung ho on MO either, a state Obama lost by a few thousand votes.
All this poll proves is that NC is definitely still a swing state. Is it possible that as the summer winds down and after the VP pick and convention, Romney's numbers there will pick up? Of course. And if the numbers are really bad closer to election time, well I'm sure we'll see Obama put more effort in FL, OH, and other "traditional" swing states.
As for VA, almost all polls have shown Obama with a consistent lead there, somewhere between 3-8 points. The demographics in both of these states has changed a lot in recent years, and it would not surprise me if in the case of VA he did end up doing better than '08. I think there's been a pretty constant influx of younger educated professionals in the NoVA area.
kimbutgar
(20,876 posts)mobilize the Christian base to vote for rmoney I am a little unsure of this poll.
http://www.alternet.org/election2012/156141/religious_right%27s_ralph_reed_field-tests_plan_for_beating_obama/
But then again will the Christian right vote for a Mormon? The Mormon thing has not been highlighted and I suspect some Dem Pac will be playing ads in Sept/Oct to counter Reed and his minions.
ObaMania
(2,054 posts).. or should I say Smirky?
But I thought it was reversed and he had a better lead in NC and the smaller in VA.
'Course Smirk said it's a Dem leaning poll though, so they're probably neck in neck in both states.
barbtries
(28,702 posts)all by myself...