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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 11:22 AM Jul 2012

PPP: Obama leads in VA by 8-points and in NC by 1-point

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in two critical Southern battleground states.

In Virginia, Obama leads by eight points, 50% to 42%.

In North Carolina, Obama has a one point edge, 47% to 46%.

"Our polling in both of these states has been pretty steady over the last year and a half. Obama has consistently fared very well in Virginia, leading by 6 points, 8 points, and now 8 points again on our last three polls. This is looking like it could be something of a firewall state for him. We have now polled North Carolina 22 times since late November of 2010. 21 out of those 22 times Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other. The state's about as much of a toss up as it could possibly be."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/07/10/obama_holds_lead_in_virginia_north_carolina.html

26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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PPP: Obama leads in VA by 8-points and in NC by 1-point (Original Post) WI_DEM Jul 2012 OP
Good to hear about Virginia Proud Liberal Dem Jul 2012 #1
you got to recall that Obama won NC by only one-point in 2008 WI_DEM Jul 2012 #3
I didn't know that Proud Liberal Dem Jul 2012 #7
Gay marriage Rosanna Lopez Jul 2012 #18
hi mgcgulfcoast Jul 2012 #8
Hope he keeps it up Proud Liberal Dem Jul 2012 #9
I would focus all ads in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Dawgs Jul 2012 #14
Where do you live in VA? Southern or northern VA? I live in Maryland and will Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2012 #21
Thank you for posting this! K&R n/t Dalai_1 Jul 2012 #2
Floridians are furious with Scott and his stance on ACA. Are there any numbers for POTUS here?.n/t monmouth Jul 2012 #4
But how many will be allowed to vote? n/t n2doc Jul 2012 #5
That seems to be the question of this campaign don't it...... a kennedy Jul 2012 #13
And he's almost tied in Texas. ananda Jul 2012 #6
I particularly like when his numbers start to creep over 50%... Wounded Bear Jul 2012 #10
That is a huge lead for Virginia. Somewhat surprising. If it holds I expect NC will get yellowcanine Jul 2012 #11
Obama carried Virginia by 6 in 2008, bornskeptic Jul 2012 #15
But Republicans made a lot of gains since then. yellowcanine Jul 2012 #17
Unless Romney wins FL, VA, OH, and gets one other big steal he has no path to 270 mikekohr Jul 2012 #12
How trustworthy is PPP this year? Rosanna Lopez Jul 2012 #16
I tend to look at who is advertising heavily in a state to determine who is behind if it's close Broderick Jul 2012 #20
VA advertising Rosanna Lopez Jul 2012 #23
I think Obama is spending money here because Romney is either too close Broderick Jul 2012 #25
I doubt there's any particular PPP bias fujiyama Jul 2012 #24
That is great but after reading an article on Alternet yesterday about how Ralph Reed is going to kimbutgar Jul 2012 #19
I heard this on Tweety last night. ObaMania Jul 2012 #22
gonna widen that lead in NC! barbtries Jul 2012 #26

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,355 posts)
1. Good to hear about Virginia
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 11:39 AM
Jul 2012

Democrats don't seem to be faring particularly well in North Carolina at the moment. What's going on there?

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
3. you got to recall that Obama won NC by only one-point in 2008
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 11:49 AM
Jul 2012

so he is doing about as well as he did at his peak.

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
18. Gay marriage
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 01:50 AM
Jul 2012

Yes, but Obama was doing much better in North Carolina in the polling until May came along. If you check out this graph, you'll see that Obama took a HUGE fall and Romney took a huge jump on May 14, 2012 at the time of the gay marriage announcement.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

 

Dawgs

(14,755 posts)
14. I would focus all ads in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 03:09 PM
Jul 2012

Romney will lose the election even if he wins one of those states.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
21. Where do you live in VA? Southern or northern VA? I live in Maryland and will
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 01:13 PM
Jul 2012

work with throngs of OFA in VA starting this weekend. I'm actually looking forward to going door to door this time around. 2008 was difficult, but now Obama has a successful record to brag about even if he won't do so himself.

a kennedy

(29,462 posts)
13. That seems to be the question of this campaign don't it......
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 02:35 PM
Jul 2012
how many will be turned away or told they're not eligible....oh yah, that is the billion dollar question.

ananda

(28,782 posts)
6. And he's almost tied in Texas.
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:21 PM
Jul 2012

So even if he loses Texas by a smaller margin than usual,
that should mean that he'll win the election by a landslide.

Wounded Bear

(58,440 posts)
10. I particularly like when his numbers start to creep over 50%...
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 01:19 PM
Jul 2012

Leading while in the 40's is less secure, IMHO. Over 50 means he's getting higher favorables, not just "better than the other guy" votes.

yellowcanine

(35,692 posts)
11. That is a huge lead for Virginia. Somewhat surprising. If it holds I expect NC will get
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 01:51 PM
Jul 2012

stronger for Obama also.

yellowcanine

(35,692 posts)
17. But Republicans made a lot of gains since then.
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:55 PM
Jul 2012

So it is significant that Obama's lead is that large. Could be good news for the Senate seat there as well.

mikekohr

(2,312 posts)
12. Unless Romney wins FL, VA, OH, and gets one other big steal he has no path to 270
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 02:16 PM
Jul 2012

Obama and 25 in '12

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
16. How trustworthy is PPP this year?
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 04:59 PM
Jul 2012

Is anyone else really disappointed with the quality of polling this year?

It seems almost every pollster is allowing their polling to be taken over by politics this year.

We know that Rasmussen inflates its numbers for the Republicans, but this year it looks like PPP is inflating its numbers for the Democrats. As Nate Silver says on his site, he has detected an in-house bias towards the Dems this year. I just don't think it's likely that Obama is ahead in Virginia by 8 points. That would mean he is doing better there than in 2008.

And most pollsters show Obama behind in North Carolina, so why does he just happen to be ahead there in PPP?

If PPP is inflating its numbers for the Democrats, this doesn't help us get a sense of what is actually happening on the ground in those states.

Broderick

(4,578 posts)
20. I tend to look at who is advertising heavily in a state to determine who is behind if it's close
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 01:10 PM
Jul 2012

Right now I see, and it may just be when I turn things on, that Obama is advertising more in Virginia at least.

Rosanna Lopez

(308 posts)
23. VA advertising
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 06:20 PM
Jul 2012

So based on the VA advertising, who do you think is doing better there?

Are you saying a lot of advertising is a good sign or a bad sign?

Broderick

(4,578 posts)
25. I think Obama is spending money here because Romney is either too close
Fri Jul 13, 2012, 11:51 AM
Jul 2012

or ahead in their internal polls. They have been spending a lot of time here too. Matter of fact, Obama is in town today and we are sequestered at this time with streets blocked off where I am at in most directions. People are rip roaring mad that they can't get where they what to go.

fujiyama

(15,185 posts)
24. I doubt there's any particular PPP bias
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 11:39 PM
Jul 2012

The NC numbers from almost all pollsters has been close. A one point lead is barely even a lead. I think there was a Ras poll showing Romney up by a much higher margin there but that is likely an outlier. If it weren't, I can't see why the Obama campaign would invest heavily there. They know they will be outspent this year and I'm sure wouldn't waste money there if they felt it was a futile effort. It is definitely a swing state. Unlike IN, which I seriously doubt the the Obama campaign is seriously contesting this year. I'm not sure if they're gung ho on MO either, a state Obama lost by a few thousand votes.

All this poll proves is that NC is definitely still a swing state. Is it possible that as the summer winds down and after the VP pick and convention, Romney's numbers there will pick up? Of course. And if the numbers are really bad closer to election time, well I'm sure we'll see Obama put more effort in FL, OH, and other "traditional" swing states.

As for VA, almost all polls have shown Obama with a consistent lead there, somewhere between 3-8 points. The demographics in both of these states has changed a lot in recent years, and it would not surprise me if in the case of VA he did end up doing better than '08. I think there's been a pretty constant influx of younger educated professionals in the NoVA area.

kimbutgar

(20,876 posts)
19. That is great but after reading an article on Alternet yesterday about how Ralph Reed is going to
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 01:06 PM
Jul 2012

mobilize the Christian base to vote for rmoney I am a little unsure of this poll.

http://www.alternet.org/election2012/156141/religious_right%27s_ralph_reed_field-tests_plan_for_beating_obama/

But then again will the Christian right vote for a Mormon? The Mormon thing has not been highlighted and I suspect some Dem Pac will be playing ads in Sept/Oct to counter Reed and his minions.

ObaMania

(2,054 posts)
22. I heard this on Tweety last night.
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 08:17 AM
Jul 2012

.. or should I say Smirky?

But I thought it was reversed and he had a better lead in NC and the smaller in VA.

'Course Smirk said it's a Dem leaning poll though, so they're probably neck in neck in both states.

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