Why the Summer of Bain is killer for Romney...
He's still pretty unknown to most Americans. They just don't really have a sense of who he is. That's the biggest negative about being a challenger because you're going up against an incumbent who's already well established. People either like Obama or don't like him. They've made up their minds and no amount of rehashing will change that. It's why Rev. Wright will not be an issue in this campaign. It's why no one is mentioning Bill Ayers or the slew of other trash tossed about in '08.
But for Romney, a guy most Americans are just starting to really learn about, this is their first impression of him. They almost always happen in summer and cement before September. They're hearing about Bain. They're hearing about the out sourcing. They're hearing about his tax returns and Swiss bank accounts - this is all going toward their view of him and it's all negative. It's what kills campaigns - fairly or not.
In '04, Kerry led Bush for a good portion of the start of summer. Then the Swiftboating started and Kerry's numbers plummeted. They plummeted because, even though it was untrue, this was really the first thing they were hearing about Kerry on a consistent basis. It worked. It did its job. Kerry went from leading throughout most of July & August to trailing in September. He rarely led in any polls all the way through to election day.
In '88, Dukakis, another unknown from Massachusetts, led Bush in May and by August, that lead was all but gone. A great deal of this flip, as was with Kerry, came through negatively portraying the challenger. In this instance, it was Willie Horton, who Bush rolled out in June of that year. Its impact was enough to slowly bleed Dukakis over time and it eventually cost him the race.
Romney's slow response and muddled message is killing him. Obama has set the narrative and has kept Romney on the defense for over a month. I know a lot of people want to wait until fall to roll out these ads, but no, roll 'em out in the summer because that's when Americans start forming their opinion on the challenger. By the time September rolls around, if this continues, Romney will be every bit in the tough spot Kerry and Dukakis found themselves in during their campaigns.
Of course, both faltered after leading. Romney hasn't led, really, since last October, and that was only marginally and briefly. This isn't about overtaking Romney in the polls, as the Swiftboating did for Bush and Willie Horton did for H.W. Bush, no, this is about knocking him out.
So far, they're doing just that.
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