2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama's Intrade # is highest its been since the end of May...
I'm guessing the Bain attacks have shifted it, along with the uptick on Wall Street today. We'll see if it continues the next month or so. Once we get to the end of August, if Romney hasn't overtaken Obama in the polls (and I guess on Intrade), I'm not so sure where he makes his move.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I've seen recently.
Intrade is great but it's not infallible. Remember the Supreme Court striking the mandate in the ACA was trading at 73% or so just before the ruling was released. We all know how that turned out.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Even the CBS poll that shows him up 1 had him up 3 last go around.
As for the ACA, that was not based on anything but gut. No one knew how the Court would rule because it was a nine-person decision - not an election where there are polls and other events to cement results. Apples & oranges, really.
annabanana
(52,791 posts)from the MSM coverage!
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)I haven't looked it up....was Romney up by more than 1 in the prior poll?
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)oh wait...this post is from woolldog. Pretty much says it all.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)get off my nuts sheepshank.
SunSeeker
(51,499 posts)Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)world.