Wed Sep 9, 2015, 11:54 AM

Nate Silver on 538: "Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders"

Excerpts from some great analysis:

A lot of people are linking the candidacies of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump under headings like “populist” and “anti-establishment.” Most of these comparisons are too cute for their own good — not only because it’s too early to come to many conclusions about the campaign, but also because Trump and Sanders are fundamentally different breeds of candidates who are situated very differently in their respective nomination races.

You can call both “outsiders.” But if you’re a Democrat, Sanders is your eccentric uncle: He has his own quirks, but he’s part of the family. If you’re a Republican, Trump is as familial as the vacuum salesman knocking on your door.
...
Sanders is campaigning on substantive policy positions, and Trump is largely campaigning on the force of his personality. I’m not sure this assertion requires a lot of proof, but if you need some, check out the candidates’ websites. Sanders’s lists dozens of specific policy proposals across a wide range of issues; Trump’s details his position on just one, immigration.
...
Sanders has a much better “ground game.” Trump, in addition to his ubiquity on television, has some semblance of a campaign operation. But Sanders’s organization is much larger and more experienced.
...
Sanders holds policy positions of a typical liberal Democrat; Trump’s are all over the place. While Sanders doesn’t officially call himself a Democrat — a fact that might annoy Democratic elites — he takes policy positions that are consistent with those of Democrats in Congress. In the previous Congress (113th), Sanders voted the same as liberal Democratic senators Barbara Boxer, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand and Sherrod Brown 95 percent of the time or more.1 He voted with party leader Harry Reid 91 percent of the time and the expressed position of President Obama2 93 percent of the time. He also voted with Clinton 93 percent of the time when the two were in the Senate together.
...
Sanders’s candidacy has clear historical precedents; they’re less obvious for Trump. Even the most formidable-seeming front-runners haven’t won their nominations without some semblance of a fight. Clinton’s position relative to Sanders is analogous to the one Al Gore held against Bill Bradley in the 2000 Democratic primary. Sanders’s campaign also has parallels to liberal stalwarts from Howard Dean to Eugene McCarthy; these candidates can have an impact on the race, but they usually don’t win the nomination.

Trump has some commonalities also: to “bandwagon” candidates like Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain; to media-savvy, factional candidates like Pat Buchanan; and to self-funded candidates like Steve Forbes. None of those candidates, however, was as openly hostile to their party as Trump is with Republicans.

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41 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver on 538: "Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders" (Original post)	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	OP
Having the two of them in the race has made this an	yeoman6987	Sep 2015	#1
Also, Trump is winning and Bernie is losing. You left that one out.	DanTex	Sep 2015	#2
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Sep 2015	#3
...	SidDithers	Sep 2015	#18
LOL. You nailed it again, Sid.	SunSeeker	Sep 2015	#29
maybe you missed the analysis that they had the same chances despite their different polling	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#4
True, I don't think either of them have much chance at all.	DanTex	Sep 2015	#5
Who would dispute that Sanders is the underdog in the Democratic race and Trump's unfavorability	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#6
Who indeed. Stay tuned, you'll find out.	DanTex	Sep 2015	#7
Anyone who thinks Trump or Sanders are the "favorites" to win their parties' nominations should be	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#11
Yes they should. With Sanders running about 15% in the odds, some people here must really be	DanTex	Sep 2015	#13
for someone who sounds so confident you sure seem to spend a lot of time in threads like these	corkhead	Sep 2015	#10
Yeah, posting DU is a hobby of mine.	DanTex	Sep 2015	#12
Apparently it is	hueymahl	Sep 2015	#22
Too many Clinton supporters are quick to attack Sanders despite the fact that he is running a	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#14
Maybe the pigeon lovers will leave their park benches when we we elect President Sanders.	jtuck004	Sep 2015	#24
Obviously you haven't checked	INdemo	Sep 2015	#39
Bernie is a self described socialist...	PosterChild	Sep 2015	#41
Leading in the polls in a crowded field more than a year out from the next election is	totodeinhere	Sep 2015	#40
Nate makes some great points	Gothmog	Sep 2015	#8
They do compare in that they both appeal to the angry/pissed off segment of each party.	DCBob	Sep 2015	#9
I'm neither angry nor pissed off and Sanders appeals to me.	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#16
no, Sanders appeal is far broader than that. but do keep trying to relegate Sanders to the	cali	Sep 2015	#17
You rang?	Armstead	Sep 2015	#20
I"m not angry, nor "pissed off." Believe it or not, I like, admire, and respect Hillary.	1monster	Sep 2015	#21
Sanders appeals to the issues segment of the party.	frylock	Sep 2015	#31
Yup	kenfrequed	Sep 2015	#34
No...	kenfrequed	Sep 2015	#33
One is a serious man with real principles, the other is a blowhard with a dead possum on his head.	Jester Messiah	Sep 2015	#15
"Populist"....	SoapBox	Sep 2015	#19
Biden is not a populist. He is an Obama Democrat and that is to the right of the party	JDPriestly	Sep 2015	#26
Biden a populist? Not hardly! He's a great VP and a good man, but his evisceration of bankruptcy	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#28
Left out the most obvious difference	genxlib	Sep 2015	#23
Thank you. Too bad it had to be explicitly pointed out	Demeter	Sep 2015	#25
Thank you for pointing out that most obvious and important point.	JDPriestly	Sep 2015	#27
Cornell West, who has endorsed Bernie Sanders, said:	BlueCaliDem	Sep 2015	#30
...a fact that might annoy Democratic elites	frylock	Sep 2015	#32
K&R, Gotta Come Back And Read... n/t	ChiciB1	Sep 2015	#35
The full article is well worth a read	Attorney in Texas	Sep 2015	#36
Yes it is. I encourage people to read Silver's extensive article. n/t	PoliticAverse	Sep 2015	#37
Like a Frank Capra movie. Bailey vs Potter.	raouldukelives	Sep 2015	#38

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:18 PM

yeoman6987 (14,449 posts)

1. Having the two of them in the race has made this an

Exciting election. Both very different but both appeal to fed up voters of the establishment. At the end of the day, it will be interesting to see if either get the nomination.

Bernie is genuine
Trump is pompous

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:22 PM

DanTex (20,709 posts)

2. Also, Trump is winning and Bernie is losing. You left that one out.

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Name removed Message auto-removed

Response to Name removed (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:08 PM

SidDithers (44,228 posts)

18. ...

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #18)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:58 PM

SunSeeker (46,730 posts)

29. LOL. You nailed it again, Sid.

I love you.

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:38 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

4. maybe you missed the analysis that they had the same chances despite their different polling

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:39 PM

DanTex (20,709 posts)

5. True, I don't think either of them have much chance at all.

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #5)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:42 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

6. Who would dispute that Sanders is the underdog in the Democratic race and Trump's unfavorability

polling suggests that he has a natural ceiling on his candidacy that tops out below the level to win the Republican nomination.

No one disputes that establishment candidates from both parties are the favorites to win their parties' nominations.

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:46 PM

DanTex (20,709 posts)

7. Who indeed. Stay tuned, you'll find out.

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:51 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

11. Anyone who thinks Trump or Sanders are the "favorites" to win their parties' nominations should be

directed to the betting sites where they could get long shot odds for putting their money where their mouth is and a big payoff when they turn out to be correct.

I support a Sanders because he has the better platform, not because is the most likely to win the nomination.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #11)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:01 PM

DanTex (20,709 posts)

13. Yes they should. With Sanders running about 15% in the odds, some people here must really be

cashing in:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251578193

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #5)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:50 PM

corkhead (6,119 posts)

10. for someone who sounds so confident you sure seem to spend a lot of time in threads like these

making sure the "can't win" trope is catapulted.

just an observation.

Reply to this post

Response to corkhead (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:57 PM

DanTex (20,709 posts)

12. Yeah, posting DU is a hobby of mine.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #12)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:47 PM

hueymahl (2,046 posts)

22. Apparently it is

Especially posting substance-free anti-Bernie talking points

Reply to this post

Response to corkhead (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:01 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

14. Too many Clinton supporters are quick to attack Sanders despite the fact that he is running a

positive and issue-oriented campaign.

If someone prefers Clinton, they should focus their efforts on responding the the attacks against her campaign by the 17 clowns, by FauxNews, by Mourning Joe, the NYT, the WSJ, etc. Sanders does Clinton an immeasurable benefit by re-focusing on a debate about policy issues (which Clinton has a thorough command of -- I prefer Sanders' positions, but no one could fault Clinton for a lack of understanding the key issues which is a test than few if any of the Republican candidates can pass).

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Response to corkhead (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:03 PM

jtuck004 (15,882 posts)

24. Maybe the pigeon lovers will leave their park benches when we we elect President Sanders.

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 10, 2015, 09:53 AM

INdemo (6,977 posts)

39. Obviously you haven't checked

The latest polls? Bernie is not losing and Hillary is nervous because for her campaign its beginning to look like 2008 all over again. One reason the Corporate Mafia Media is turning up the heat on Bernie is because Bernie Sanders is connecting with the voters.

Reply to this post

Response to INdemo (Reply #39)

Thu Sep 10, 2015, 01:52 PM

PosterChild (1,307 posts)

41. Bernie is a self described socialist...

.... he's not going to be the Democratic nominee , let alone the president.

(And please don't tell me that he's a democratic socialist. First, he has called himself a socialist, pure and simple. Second, nobody cares about the multitudinous variety of socialistic sects. )

Reply to this post

Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 10, 2015, 10:33 AM

totodeinhere (12,696 posts)

40. Leading in the polls in a crowded field more than a year out from the next election is

just that, leading. It's not winning.

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:47 PM

Gothmog (111,313 posts)

8. Nate makes some great points

I have never considered Sanders to be in the same universe as Trump. I may not be supporting Sanders but I think that any comparison of Sanders to Trump is not warranted and would be wrong

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 12:49 PM

DCBob (24,689 posts)

9. They do compare in that they both appeal to the angry/pissed off segment of each party.

Reply to this post

Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:02 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

16. I'm neither angry nor pissed off and Sanders appeals to me.

Reply to this post

Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:05 PM

cali (114,904 posts)

17. no, Sanders appeal is far broader than that. but do keep trying to relegate Sanders to the

same territory as trump.

And if you aren't at the very least concerned with the corrupt status quo of our politics and economic inequities, you aren't paying attention.

Reply to this post

Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:18 PM

Armstead (47,803 posts)

20. You rang?

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Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:41 PM

1monster (11,012 posts)

21. I"m not angry, nor "pissed off." Believe it or not, I like, admire, and respect Hillary.

I just don't agree with many of her positions. She isn't our best choice for president.

I would love to have a woman president before I pass on. But in this election cycle, I'm voting for Bernie. He's the best choice of my voting life.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:08 PM

frylock (34,825 posts)

31. Sanders appeals to the issues segment of the party.

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Response to frylock (Reply #31)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:23 PM

kenfrequed (7,865 posts)

34. Yup

That about covers it perfectly. We are more concerned with policy.

Reply to this post

Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:23 PM

kenfrequed (7,865 posts)

33. No...

But Bernie's campaign does appeal to a lot of the people concerned about the disparity of wealth and the problems of money in politics.

Whereas Don-don and his rogue hairpiece appeals to... well he is the wealthy.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:02 PM

Jester Messiah (4,711 posts)

15. One is a serious man with real principles, the other is a blowhard with a dead possum on his head.

Don't you EVER tell me what to do Silver, damn your eyes!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:15 PM

SoapBox (18,791 posts)

19. "Populist"....

Includes Biden...as that was the label he got in a couple articles last weekend.

Reply to this post

Response to SoapBox (Reply #19)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:11 PM

JDPriestly (57,936 posts)

26. Biden is not a populist. He is an Obama Democrat and that is to the right of the party

center.

Reply to this post

Response to SoapBox (Reply #19)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:22 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

28. Biden a populist? Not hardly! He's a great VP and a good man, but his evisceration of bankruptcy

protections for working people is the opposite of "populist." Don't take my word for it, see what Sen. Elizabeth Warren had to say:

As a Harvard law professor in 2002, Warren published a journal article excoriating Biden for playing a leading role in delivering legislation that made it more difficult for Americans to reduce debts through bankruptcy filings. His repeated push for the bill -- signed into law by President George W. Bush in 2005 -- amounted to “vigorous support of legislation that hurts women,” Warren declared. She said "the group that will be most affected by the changes in the bankruptcy legislation Senator Biden so forcefully supports will be women, particularly women heads of household who are supporting children." She called Biden a “zealous advocate on behalf of one of his biggest contributors,” singling out the credit card industry, which has a strong presence in Biden’s home state of Delaware.

In a separate 2003 book she co-authored with her daughter, Warren said, “Senators like Joe Biden should not be allowed to sell out women in the morning and be heralded as their friend in the evening.”

I love Biden, but I didn't support him in 1988 or 2008 because he has never been part of the progressive wing of the party. I'm not criticizing him for that because a bird can't fly without a right-wing and a left-wing and no party in the US could survive if it was so narrow that it excluded goodhearted centrists like Biden (and Clinton, for that matter), but that's not the segment of the party I support.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 01:53 PM

genxlib (4,848 posts)

23. Left out the most obvious difference

Sanders is a professional public servant that has served at ever increasing levels of responsibility and has a solid understanding of how government works.

Trump had done none of those things and knows nothing about public service or how government works

Reply to this post

Response to genxlib (Reply #23)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:11 PM

Demeter (85,373 posts)

25. Thank you. Too bad it had to be explicitly pointed out

Reply to this post

Response to genxlib (Reply #23)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 02:12 PM

JDPriestly (57,936 posts)

27. Thank you for pointing out that most obvious and important point.

Bernie understands how our government works and is offering to make it work better.

Trump is a loudmouth hater.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:00 PM

BlueCaliDem (15,434 posts)

30. Cornell West, who has endorsed Bernie Sanders, said:

"Brother Bernie and Brother Trump are authentic human beings"

Uh...whut?? Trump is an "authentic human being"?? Really??

He's also called President Obama a "Rockefeller Republican in a blackface".

If Bernie Sanders is accepting Cornell West's endorsement (and all accounts say he is) in an attempt to gain favor with Black voters, then he's made one of his biggest mistakes for his campaign to date.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:10 PM

frylock (34,825 posts)

32. ...a fact that might annoy Democratic elites

a fact that might annoy Democratic elites

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 03:25 PM

ChiciB1 (15,435 posts)

35. K&R, Gotta Come Back And Read... n/t

Reply to this post

Response to ChiciB1 (Reply #35)

Wed Sep 9, 2015, 08:05 PM

Attorney in Texas (3,373 posts)

36. The full article is well worth a read

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #36)

Thu Sep 10, 2015, 07:41 AM

PoliticAverse (25,995 posts)

37. Yes it is. I encourage people to read Silver's extensive article. n/t

Reply to this post

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Sep 10, 2015, 09:50 AM

raouldukelives (5,178 posts)

38. Like a Frank Capra movie. Bailey vs Potter.

The only way Trump could appear more villainous to me is if he tied someone to train tracks and twirled his handlebar mustache.

But he is a conservative. A Republican. An honest one. He says out loud what they all think and try to word in roundabout ways on corporate owned media.

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